Joe F.
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist
Markets (An XAU/HUI 5% Major Buy Signal occurred on 12-10-08!, see annotated chart three at Trade the Cycles Charts)
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffett. That is what this site helps investors and traders do. Follow me and the Trade the Cycles system on Twitter! Check out one of the best market timing systems at the Trade the Cycles Blog, at the Trade the Cycles charts, and at the old Trade the Cycles web page.
For SPX (S
& P 500), based
on major 5% sell signal (see chart 9 at this link to
see the major sell signal), a long term and a Cyclical
Bull Market (began October 2002) cycle high occurred at
1576.09 on 10-11-07 (rollover action), only
+1.30% above July 2007's cycle high at 1555.90. For NDX
(NASDAQ
100), a
Cyclical
Bull Market (began October 2002) cycle
high occurred in
late October 2007.
An HUI (AMEX
Gold
Bugs Index)/XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index)
Wave 3 Cyclical
Bull Market very likely began in late October 2008. The gold COT
data was extremely
bearish in 2008 from a big picture perspective, but,
the NEM
Lead
Indicator was bullish versus the XAU in late 2008. An HUI/XAU Wave 2
Cyclical Bear Market cycle low very likely occurred in late October
2008.
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About Joe F. Rocks! Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist - Revised 8-18-06.
Trade the Cycles Blog! - Began on 11-8-05. Updated nearly every day. Mostly HUI/NEM/XAU/gold and S & P 500/major averages/WMT timing. Joe F. Trade the Cycles - Assessment of the timeliness of stocks - Updated 6-4-06. Original cycle based system and original analysis/research, gold/silver stocks and gold/silver are discussed after the major averages. New Trade the Cycles work occurs nearly daily at the Trade the Cycles Blog.
Joe F. Trade the Cycles Archive Joe F. Rocks! Gold/Silver Stock, Gold, and US Dollar Charts - The Primary Market Timing Consideration Is The Cycles Channels/Trendlines
Joe F. Rocks! Cycles Summary - The basis for my original "Trade the Cycles" system. Updated 8-19-06. Check it out! Trade the Cycles Info - My original "Trade the Cycles" system can be used to time any market. Created 12-22-04. ............................................................................
The Origin of Joe F Rocks!, Some Interesting History, Interactions with Famous People, and Let's Get Some More Publicity! - Created 2-28-04.
Joe F. Rocks! NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow - For the week ending 6-2-06. 4.10% more uptick blocks (positive money flow). Mortgage Refinancing Resources - A few good resources to help you make the correct decisions
The Reading Room - Where great sites such as Forbes can be found
The Great Bull Market! (HUI chart at Yahoo!) --- Gold/silver Stock Secular Bull Market (very long term (probably 15 to 20+ years) upcycle) began in late 2000 (Please check out the gold stock charts). Gold/silver stocks enjoyed a huge run in 2001, 2002, & 2003 (HUI rose about 70%/year in each of those years) and also enjoyed a huge run in the Wave 5 long term upcycle from 5-10-04 until 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU. Elliott Wave 5 long term (1-3 years) cycle highs occurred at 401.69 on 5-11-06 for HUI, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for NEM, and at 171.71 on 5-11-06 for the XAU. The XAU Put/Call Ratio and Implied Volatility are normally contrarian indicators except when they change by > 6% (XAU Implied Volatility relative to the change in the XAU (their % changes are added, for example, a +2% change in XAU Implied Volatility + a -1% change in the XAU = +1% = 1% rise in fear which portends strength), but since the XAU Put/Call Ratio is computed prior to the market open, no relativistic comparison (really just simple addition with declines being the addition of a negative number) can be done, so only it's % change is used and the XAU is a 0% change). Old Assessment as of 6-7-08: HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 probably peaked on 3-17-08 (HUI)/3-14-08 (XAU) in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's Elliott Wave 5 long term cycle highs for HUI at 401.69 and for the XAU at 171.71, which means that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun for HUI/XAU. The time to turn bearish was obviously May 2006, as correctly indicated by the Trade the Cycles market timing system's 5% follow through sell signal. In the next 12-18 months HUI/XAU are probably headed for the primary Secular Bull Market trendlines at 210-230ish for HUI and at 90-95ish for the XAU, see charts 8 and 10. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.85% versus the XAU on 6-6 and was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5. The latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to strength accompanied by some weakness in the week ending 6-13-08, see the "Trade the Cycles" Blog. "Trade the Cycles" flashed a major 5% follow through sell signal. Please visit the "Trade the Cycles" Blog for market timing analysis. A Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle has been in effect since October (NEM/XAU)/November (HUI) 2000. Gold/silver stocks do well in an inflationary/rising interest rate environment a la the 1970s and 2002 to early 2006, when real estate and mortgages/credit were booming, but, a major deflationary economic downcycle has taken effect. Cycle channels/trendlines used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the most important consideration when timing any market. .............................................................................
Index Options put/call ratios
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