"Be
fearful
when others are greedy and greedy when others are
fearful." Warren Buffett. Cycles,
Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the basis/crux of the Trade
the Cycles market timing system.
Follow me and the Trade the Cycles
system on Twitter! Also, check out one of the best
market
timing systems at the
(new) Trade
the
Cycles Google Site, the
Trade
the Cycles Blog,
at Trade the Cycles
charts,
and, at the (old) Trade the Cycles web page.
For SPX (S
& P 500), based
on major 5% sell signal (see chart 9 at this link to
see the major sell signal), a long term and a Cyclical
Bull Market (began October 2002) cycle high occurred at
1576.09 on 10-11-07 (rollover action), only
+1.30% above July 2007's cycle high at 1555.90. For NDX
(NASDAQ
100), a
Cyclical
Bull Market (began October 2002) cycle
high occurred in
late October 2007.
An HUI (AMEX
Gold
Bugs Index)/XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index)
Wave 3 Cyclical
Bull Market very likely began in late October 2008. The gold COT
data was extremely
bearish in 2008 from a big picture perspective, but,
the NEM
Lead
Indicator was bullish versus the XAU in late 2008. An HUI/XAU Wave 2
Cyclical Bear Market cycle low very likely occurred in late October
2008.
Follow me and the Trade the Cycles
system on Twitter!
About Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist - Revised
3-3-10.
Trade the Cycles Blog!
- Began on
11-8-05. Updated regularly. Mostly HUI/NEM/XAU/gold
and S & P 500/major averages/WMT timing.
The
Twitteresque Blog - Many updates each day. News of all kinds, Trade
the Cycles market timing, my thoughts on many subjects, backup in case
Twitter's down, etc.
Joe
F. Trade the
Cycles - Assessment of the
timeliness of stocks
- Updated 6-4-06. Original
cycle based system and
original
analysis/research, gold/silver stocks and gold/silver
are discussed after the major
averages. New Trade the Cycles work occurs
nearly daily at the Trade the Cycles Blog.
Joe
F. Trade the Cycles Archive
Joe F. Rocks! Gold/Silver Stock, Gold, and
US Dollar Charts - The Primary Market Timing Consideration Is The
Cycles Channels/Trendlines
Joe F. Rocks! Cycles
Summary - The basis for
my
original "Trade the Cycles" system. Updated 8-19-06. Check it out!
Trade the
Cycles Info - My original "Trade the Cycles" system can be
used to time any market. Created 12-22-04.
The Origin of Joe F
Rocks!, Some Interesting History, Interactions with Famous People, and
Let's Get Some More Publicity! - Created 2-28-04.
Mortgage Refinancing
Resources - A few good resources to help you make the correct decisions
The Reading Room - Where great sites such as
Forbes can be found
The
Great Bull Market! (HUI chart at Yahoo!) --- Gold/silver
Stock Secular Bull
Market (very long term (probably 15
to 20+
years) upcycle) began in late
2000 (Please check out
the gold stock charts). Gold/silver stocks enjoyed a
huge run in 2001,
2002, & 2003
(HUI rose about 70%/year in each of those
years) and also enjoyed
a
huge run in the
Wave 5
long term upcycle from 5-10-04 until 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU. Elliott Wave 5 long term (1-3 years) cycle
highs occurred at 401.69 on 5-11-06 for HUI, at
62.72 on 1-31-06 for NEM, and at 171.71
on 5-11-06 for the
XAU.
The XAU
Put/Call Ratio and
Implied Volatility are
normally contrarian
indicators
except when they change by > 6% (XAU Implied Volatility relative to
the change in the XAU (their % changes are added, for example, a +2%
change in XAU
Implied Volatility + a -1% change
in the XAU = +1% =
1% rise in fear which portends strength), but since the XAU
Put/Call Ratio is computed prior to the market open, no relativistic
comparison (really just simple addition with declines being the
addition of a negative number) can be done, so only it's % change is
used and the XAU is a
0% change). Old
Assessment (as of 6-7-08): HUI/XAU's
Wave 1 Cyclical Bull
Market since late 2000 probably peaked on 3-17-08 (HUI)/3-14-08
(XAU) in dramatic rollover
mode versus
5-11-06's Elliott Wave
5 long term cycle highs for HUI at
401.69 and for the XAU at 171.71, which
means that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun for HUI/XAU.
The time to turn bearish was obviously May 2006, as correctly indicated
by the Trade the Cycles market timing system's 5% follow through sell
signal. The NEM
Lead
Indicator was a bearish
-0.85%
versus the XAU on 6-6 and was a bordering on very bearish -0.98% on 6-5.
The gold
COT
(Commitments Of Traders) data pointed to strength accompanied
by some weakness in the week
ending 6-13-08, see the
"Trade the Cycles"
Blog. Please visit
the "Trade the Cycles"
Blog
for market timing analysis. A Secular Bull Market/very long term
upcycle has
been in effect since
October (NEM/XAU)/November (HUI) 2000. Gold/silver
stocks
do well in an inflationary/rising interest rate environment a la the
1970s and 2002 to early 2006, when real estate and mortgages/credit
were booming,
but, a major deflationary
economic downcycle has taken effect. Cycle
channels/trendlines used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps
are the
most
important consideration when timing any market.
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ratios
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Copyright © 2000-2010
Joe F. All
rights
reserved.
investing, trading, market timing, technical analysis, FOREX,
currencies, USD, stocks,
index, major averages, sectors, HUI, XAU
