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Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor &
Market Strategist
Joe F. Rocks! Gold/Silver Stock, Gold, USD, NDX, and SPX Trade the Cycles
Charts updated 9-21-09 (added first chart)
One must have a good grasp of cycle
channels/trendlines, used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and
gaps, in order to assess a market's
timeliness. See the Trade the Cycles charts below. Cycle channels/trendlines, used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns
and gaps, are the basis/crux of my "Trade the Cycles" market timing
system (candlestick charts are a very important tool). Please see the
annotated charts below. See
the Trade
the
Cycles Blog for the latest HUI/NEM/XAU assessment, it's usually
updated each trading day.
Long term cycle highs occurred
for the XAU and HUI on
May 11, 2006 at 171.71 and 401.69 respectively. Long
term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high
occurred for reliable lead indicator NEM at 62.72 on
1-31-06. Reliable
lead indicator NEM is probably in a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle
(probably
15-20 years) since October 2000. HUI began a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (probably 15-20 years) in November 2000 (the chart's about 10
charts down), and, the
XAU began a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (probably 15-20 years) in October 2000.
The NEM lead indicator chart acts as an
early warning system. Reliable lead indicator NEM dramatically
underperformed
HUI and the XAU for a few months before the Wave 5 long term upcycle peaked on 5-11-06, correctly indicating that
the Wave 5 long term upcycle that began on
5-10-04 was in trouble. During the last few months of the
prior Wave 3 long term upcycle (from July 26, 2002 until 12-2-03 for
HUI/NEM
and until 1-6-04 for the XAU) NEM underperformed HUI/the XAU, correctly
portending that the previous long term cycle would turn down.
XAU Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility
Parabolic long term cycle sell
signals. The XAU hit a long term cycle low at 76.79 on 5-10-04 versus
the finetuned range of 67-72.
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