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Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist

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Joe F. Rocks! Growth Stock Indicators Updated 4-13-03

Growth Stock Timeliness - Monday - Untimely (Weakness during much of Monday's session with a close less than 1% up is a "hit.")
- Very Short Term (2-3 Days) - Untimely (NDX/COMPX technical sell signal on Monday 3-24.)
- Short Term (2-3 Weeks) - Untimely (Intermediate term cycle high on Monday 12-2.)

Next Session Accuracy/Usefulness Rating - NASDAQ - 71.5 out of 81. 88.27% ("Hit!" COMPX/NDX in negative territory during most of Friday's session. COMPX/NDX closed significantly lower.)
- Gold Stocks - 15 out of 20. 75.00% ("Hit!" XAU in negative territory during most of Friday's session and closed slightly lower. Thursday's significant rise in complacency correctly portended weakness. This for now will only be a test of XAU implied volatility mechanically interpreted (no judgement) since I usually get the data a day late (I will probably augment this system with two more IV indicators (real time data) similar to how I time the major averages.)

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) opened significantly higher at 1379.48 on Friday, but, thanks to Thursday's rise in complacency, soon fell sharply and spent most of the session in negative territory with a close significantly lower at 1358.85, -6.76 (-0.50%).

The NASDAQ wall of worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index)) shrank on Friday with VXN revealing that a sharp rise in complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV revealed that a very sharp rise in complacency occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock). The NASDAQ is deemed untimely on Monday.

The current low volatility/high complacency environment (VIX, VXN, and QQV very near their lows for this intermediate term cycle which began on October 10, 2002 shortly after VIX rose above the extreme level of 50 (to 50.48) and triggered an intermediate term cycle low) is characteristic of important tops wether they are short term, intermediate term, or long term tops. The market recently reached an important short term top and is likely to fall substantially over the next few weeks. Recently the market's wall of worry (VIX, VXN, and QQV) has been collapsing even during sessions when the market declines which has very negative implications for the market over the next few weeks.

QQQ hit a technical sell signal (RSI, stochastics flashed sell) on Monday 3-24 and is in the middle (closer to the top) of it's recent downtrending price channel (defined by the highs and lows of recent sessions with Monday 4-7's intraday high being a spike well above the channel). Earnings warning season for the first quarter has begun which will almost certainly hammer stocks.

On Friday VIX fell (-0.69 (-2.38%) to 28.27) despite a decline in OEX of -1.76 (-0.40%) to 440.97 which was a sharp rise in complacency for the S & P 100/value stocks since the wall of worry (VIX) fell sharply in percentage terms despite OEX (S & P 100) falling which portends weakness in OEX on Monday. The S & P 100 is deemed untimely on Monday.

Friday 3-28's 7.91% HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) rally broke well above HUI's recent trend of declining peaks since the intermediate term cycle high near 155 in early January which signals that an intermediate term uptrend is in place (that an intermediate term buy signal occurred).

123.39-114.22 (8.03% rise from the session low of 114.22) was the range for HUI (66.74-62.63 for the XAU) on Friday 3-28 with a close right at the session high which was a major positive (exceeded the volatility that occurred during October 10's intermediate term cycle low which indicates that an intermediate term buy signal occurred on Friday 3-28).

Looking at last week's "CFTC Commitment of Traders Combined Futures and Options" for gold (Reportable Positions as of April 8, 2003), the speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) bought 2604 long contracts and added 4971 short contracts whereas the commercial traders bought 466 long contracts and covered 1894 short contracts. The more bearish posture (nearly twice as many short contracts bought) of the speculators and the fact that the commercial traders were more bullish (added modestly to their long position while significantly reducing their short position) is a plus for gold given that the speculators tend to be contrarian indicators and the commercial traders tend to be non contrarian indicators (know what they're doing).

The fact that gold appears to be near an intermediate term cycle low (at the bottom of it's uptrending price channel) is obviously a major factor also. Thursday 4-3's low of $323.20 was taken out on Monday 4-7 with a session low and likely intermediate term cycle low of $319.20 and a close of $321.20. Gold fell a bit below the bottom of it's "hidden channel" on Monday 4-7. It appears that seasonality (linked to gold's cycles) may be a major factor for gold stocks with huge rallies culminating in intermediate term cycle highs in late May during both 2001 and 2002.

On Friday there was a very sharp rise in gold stock complacency since XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) IV (Implied Volatility) Index composite (weighted average of the implied volatility of XAU options, VIX for gold stocks) fell 4.04% to 35.90% (from 37.41% on Thursday: -1.51%/37.41% x 100%) versus the XAU falling 0.12% that portends weakness on Monday because (the gold stock wall of worry didn't hold up well) XAU implied volatility fell very sharply in percentage terms despite the XAU falling slightly on Friday.

On Thursday there was a significant rise in gold stock complacency since XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) IV (Implied Volatility) Index composite (weighted average of the implied volatility of XAU options, VIX for gold stocks) fell 0.85% to 37.41% (from 37.73% on Wednesday: -0.32%/37.73% x 100%) versus the XAU falling 0.56% that correctly portended weakness on Friday (XAU in negative territory most of the session and closed at 65.73, -0.12, -0.18%.) because (the gold stock wall of worry didn't hold up well) XAU implied volatility fell significantly in percentage terms as did the XAU on Thursday.

On Wednesday there was a significant rise in gold stock fear since XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) IV (Implied Volatility) Index composite (weighted average of the implied volatility of XAU options, VIX for gold stocks) fell 1.23% to 37.73% (from 38.20% on Tuesday: -0.47%/38.20% x 100%) versus the XAU rising 3.07% that incorrectly portended strength on Thursday (XAU in negative territory most of the session and closed at 65.85, -0.37, -0.56%.) because (the gold stock wall of worry held up well) XAU implied volatility fell significantly less in percentage terms than the XAU rose on Wednesday.

Bernie "Schaeffer's Daily Sector Snapshot" reveals that the put/call ratio for ten gold stocks (including five that I own: AU, GFI, GG, HL, HMY) has risen dramatically since November 15 from 0.31 to 0.50. Having observed this indicator for a while I now believe that it's a useful non-contrarian short term indicator for gold stocks just as the CBOE Put/Call Ratio (this one has a shorter 2-3 hour timeframe) and AAII are for the major averages. So, the decline in the put/call ratio for ten gold stocks from 0.55 recently to 0.50 is a sharp rise in complacency which is a short term positive that correctly portended strength. However, the recent rise from 0.48 to 0.50 is a negative as is the fact that XAU implied volatility has collapsed.

The XAU recently was near the bottom of the giant triangle going back to late 2001. Once that triangle is broken to the upside in the not too distant future a huge rally may occur.

HUI's early January high near 155 was an intermediate term cycle high. Once the next short term cycle high in January (at 153ish) failed to exceed 155 the intermediate term cycle high was (probably) in and it was time to get out. An intermediate term buy signal occurred on Friday 3-28 however.

The CBOE Put/Call Ratio at an elevated (at or above 0.75 but below 0.90) level of 0.79 at Friday's close suggests there will be weakness early on Monday because it's a reliable non-contrarian indicator of the next session's early action except at extremely high (at or above 1.05) or extremely low levels (at or below 0.50) where it sometimes is also a contrarian indicator (sometimes portends a sharp rally following early potentially severe weakness, judgement is involved).

The NASDAQ TRIN closed at a modestly bearish level of 1.13 (indicating significantly more activity in declining issues) on Friday which is negative technically. A level between 0.35 and 0.80 is a bullish range for the NASDAQ TRIN because it indicates much more activity in rising issues. A NASDAQ TRIN above 1.00 indicates more activity in declining issues. A NASDAQ TRIN between 1.20 and 1.50 is a clearly bearish "red zone" range because it indicates much more activity in declining issues but not a very oversold condition. If the NASDAQ TRIN rises above 1.50 you can begin to look for a rally and if it rises above 2.00 that tends to be a reliable short term buy signal (very oversold condition).

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) % bullish (AAII has been a useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator at extremely low levels below 40% bullish and extremely high levels above 60% bullish.) @ 38.4% bullish is a negative factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 4-18 because it is at a very low level of bullishness.

A sharp rise in complacency occurred for the NASDAQ 100 on Friday, with VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) falling -0.71 (-1.76%) to 39.62 despite NDX (NASDAQ 100) falling -6.99 (-0.68%) to 1026.15 which reveals that a sharp rise in complacency occurred for NDX because VXN fell significantly in percentage terms as did NDX (NDX wall of worry didn't hold up well) which portends weakness in NDX on Monday.

A very sharp rise in complacency occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, -0.26 (-1.01%) to 25.51) on Friday since QQQ fell significantly in percentage terms while QQV (QQQ Volatility Index, -1.10 (-3.18%) to 33.54) fell very sharply (QQQ wall of worry shrank) which portends weakness in QQQ on Monday.

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) stochastics flashed a buy signal (fast stochastic broke well above the slow
stochastic from oversold territory) on Friday 3-28. The very high volatility on Friday 3-28 is characteristic of bottoming activity and exceeded that of the intermediate term cycle low that occurred on October 10, 2002.

Keep in mind that the metal lags the gold stocks on a long term basis. The metal recently had an enormous rally from the $300/Ounce area to about $388. It played catchup with the HUI which is a good sign (HUI has risen 70-75% in both 2001 and 2002, outperforming the metal, and began it's Bull Market in late 2000 about 5-6 months before the metal).

HUI rose from 103 or so at the October intermediate term cycle low to nearly 155 in early January (intermediate term cycle high), so the substantial corrective action of HUI since early January is setting HUI up for another impressive rally in the near future (an intermediate term buy signal occurred on Friday 3-28).

A gold stock Bull Market (The New Bull Market!) began in late 2000. I suspect there will be a huge rally in the next few months (an intermediate term buy signal occured on Friday 3-28 with HUI rising 7.91%) as occurred in 2001 and 2002 this time of year. Short covering will be a major factor because the gold stock market is still a relatively small one.

Look for gold to trend higher this year and long term. $330.00, a major resistance level, was broken on Thursday 12-12-02. There might be a lot of money to be made in the gold stocks during the next few weeks but keep in mind they tend to be extremely volatile as they have been recently. The 50 basis point Fed rate cut at the November 6 FOMC is a major positive for gold stocks. The rapid growth in the money supply is a major positive for the precious metals. The Fed is in the unenviable position of having to inflate (decrease the dollar's value) in order to keep the economy afloat.

Thursday 12-12's major breakout above $330/ounce confirms a likely long term Bull Market for gold and is a major long term buy signal despite the fact that it fell back below that level on Friday 3-21.

Recently gold volatility became very high which correctly indicated there would be a major move down. The spike up in volatility accompanied the very sharp rise to the $388 area and correctly identified a short term peak in gold. It appears that extremely low volatility marks gold bottoms at least on a short term basis and extremely high volatility marks important short term tops which is the opposite of what happens (at least on a short term basis) with the major averages where extremely low volatility marks tops and extremely high volatility marks bottoms on both a short and intermediate term basis (The previous extreme cycle low on 9-21-01 occurred at an extreme of volatility that saw VXN rise above 91. A sell signal occurred in March 2002 when VXN fell below 40 because it indicated that an extreme of low volatility was near. All the major averages (growth and value) began trending lower at that time though the major NASDAQ averages began trending lower in early January because growth stocks hit a cycle high at that time.).

It appears the market may be heading for another short intermediate term cycle such as began on July 24 and October 10 when VIX rose above the extreme level of 50.00. So, I'll be looking for another important cycle low when VIX reaches 50+ (and/or if VXN reaches the extreme level of 80+).

VXN is new as of January 2001 so not enough data exists yet to be a statistically meaningful sample size but identifying major deltas in fear (Delta VIX/VXN) and peaks in VIX/VXN can identify likely cycle highs and lows. The principle of a major rise (delta) in fear or complacency leading to major rallies/declines in the major averages is a sound one as is the degree that fear or complacency creeps into the market as it rallies/declines (how well the wall of worry holds up) portending strength (when fear creeps in) or weakness (when complacency creeps in). This chart of the percentage moves in VIX and VXN versus the S & P 500 (SPX), the Dow (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) illustrates that sound principle of market timing.

The dramatic declines (deltas) in VIX (50.48 on 10-10 (intermediate term cycle low) to 26.73 on 11-22) and VXN (64 on 10-10 to 43 on December 2 (intermediate term cycle high)) correctly portended the current downturn (intermediate term cycle high on December 2).

Two extremes of fear (VIX hit the extreme level of 50+ on 7-24-02 and 10-10-02 and VXN rose to moderately high levels of 69+ and 64+ respectively on those dates) in 2002 led to (triggered) intermediate term cycle lows. When VIX and VXN both exceeded extreme levels (of 50 & 80 respectively) on 9-21-01 (VXN hit 91+) a healthy long intermediate term (6 month+) cycle ensued (an extreme intermediate term cycle low/major bottom occurred).

It appears that when VXN (growth stock volatility) exceeds 80 as opposed to (just) VIX (value stock volatility) reaching 50+ a more extreme cycle low occurs and a healthier, longer intermediate term cycle is likely to occur. This makes sense since 80+ is a much more extreme level of fear/volatility than 50+ and explains why both July 24 and October 10 were "moderate" cycle lows and didn't/won't last as long as the cycle that began on 9-21-01.

Value stock volatility (VIX, OEX Volatility Index, is mostly value stock volatility because the S & P 100 appears to be about 75-80% value stocks. VIX largely reflects value stock volatility) is running ahead of growth stock volatility as it did when the July 24, 2002 and October 10, 2002 intermediate term cycle lows occurred with VIX near a high level (30 to 40) at 28.27 as of Friday's close and VXN at a low level (below 40) of implied volatility/fear at 39.62. For VXN to be at a "high" level of implied volatility/fear it would be at or above 60 which is where it was (at 64+) when the October 10 (the second "VIX 50.00" moderate cycle low in 2002) intermediate term cycle began. Growth stocks are much more volatile than value stocks hence the differing levels for "high" implied volatility, "very high" implied volatility, etc. for VIX and VXN.

The disparity between growth and value stock implied volatility/fear is "preventing" an extreme cycle low by triggering an intermediate term cycle low before NASDAQ/growth stock implied volatility/fear (VXN/QQV) becomes extreme (occurred twice in 2002). I think VXN must at least reach 75 and probably near or above 80 before an extreme cycle low can occur. It reached 91+ when the last extreme cycle low on 9-21-01 occurred as I've discussed previously. It also spiked above 80 when the April 2001 cycle low occurred. We got another "VIX 50.00 rally" (moderate cycle low) on 10-10-02.

Nova Fund Assets/Ursa Fund Assets closed at 0.297 on Thursday (NA on Friday) which is bearish (falling again indicating rising/high fear - the cycle is heading down. The fact that this indicator jumped so dramatically so quickly was a major negative because it revealed a major degree of complacency crept into the market far too quickly and easily (just as occurred after the rally following the July 24 intermediate term cycle low) which is a clear sign that an extreme intermediate term cycle low has yet to occur.). Also, NASDAQ/NYSE Composite NH (New Highs)/NH+NL (New Lows) closed at 0.698 on Thursday (NA on Friday) which is bearish (trending higher but the intermediate term cycle that began on October 10 is heading down.).

NASDAQ/NYSE Composite NH/NH+NL is definitely a primary indicator being that it's a breadth indicator. Also, the Rydex Nova/Ursa Ratio is a primary indicator because it's a fundamental measure of wether investors are bearish (more money in the defensive Ursa Fund) or bullish (more money in the aggressive Nova Fund).

The moderate intermediate term cycle after the July 24 low (and after the October 10 low) strongly supports my view that VXN must approach or exceed 80 as it has in recent intermediate term cycle lows (growth stock fear must become extreme) in order for a true extreme cycle low (major bottom) to occur.

At true extreme cycle lows fear becomes much more extreme than it did on 7-24 or 10-10 (VXN at about 70 on 7-24 and at 64 on 10-10. Spiked to 91+ at the September 21, 2001 cycle low and well above 80 when the April 2001 cycle low occurred). Also, complacency doesn't creep back into the market as quickly as it did during the recent moderate intermediate term cycles after 7-24 and 10-10. In other words, buckle up!

People who mechanically rely on one indicator such as VIX tend to get into trouble. This is why I look at a variety of primary indicators such as VXN, QQV, VIX, Advance/Decline Ratio, Up/Down Volume, total volume, money flow, Investor's Intelligence survey of advisor bullishness, etc. I would call the July 24 and the October 10 Bear Market lows moderate intermediate term cycle lows because VIX reached an extreme level of 50+ but VXN fell well short of an extreme 80+ (it rose to about 70 on 7-24-02 and 64 on 10-10-02. Spiked to 91+ on 9-21-01).

Intermediate term cycles tend to be 3-12 months in duration in recent years. There were two intermediate term cycle lows in 2001 (April and September) with September 21, 2001's being a major bottom (extreme intermediate term cycle low where VIX > 50 and VXN > 91 on 9-21-01).

Since there was an enormous rise in complacency during the intermediate term cycle after the October 10 intermediate term cycle low (VIX, VXN, and QQV fell dramatically and Investor's Intelligence % of advisors bullish rose to 50.60% on 11-13 from 28.40% of advisors bullish four weeks earlier), the primary growth stock indicators portend a sharp downtrend toward an intermediate term cycle low. An intermediate term cycle high occurred for the major averages on December 2.

Breadth, a primary indicator, was negative on Friday with NASDAQ A/D at nearly 8:7 in favor of declining issues and NASDAQ Up/Down Volume was in favor of down volume by better than 6:5. Once the cycle low occurs and a new upcycle begins breadth should turn convincingly positive during the early high fear part of the cycle. Growth (NASDAQ is mostly growth) will be more timely than value (NYSE is mostly value) but both should rise sharply during the early high fear (VXN > 60, VIX > 30) part of the cycle.

There just hasn't been the extreme fear, panic, and volatility yet that marks extreme cycle lows. VXN is at 39.62 as of Friday and I expect it to briefly spike above 80 and possibly even 90 the day an extreme cycle low (major bottom) occurs. It's likely that will be the only day that VXN spikes above 80, especially if it rises above 90. The more extreme fear becomes the more likely a "V" shaped cycle low occurs as opposed to a "W" shaped retest cycle low occurring probably as a result of a more moderate peak level of fear. VIX (value stock volatility) reaching 50+ is another likely indication that a cycle low has occurred, but is a much less extreme cycle low than when VXN (growth stock volatility) reaches 80+.

A great trading opportunity may occur in the next few months. Keep in mind that from the September 21, 2001 COMPX intermediate term cycle low of 1387 to the intermediate term cycle high in early January 2002 of about 2100 COMPX gained about 50% in three and a half months. So, a very nice gain will probably result if one buys QQQ near the cycle low and exits once a complacent, fairly low volatility market arises.

One needs to keep in mind that the sentiment picture can change drastically in a few hours or even less from what I discussed using the previous close's sentiment figures. It's important to look at VXN intraday and compare it to the figure I discuss from the previous session's close. If fear rises substantially (large + Delta VXN) that portends a rally and if complacency jumps (large - Delta VXN) substantially that portends weakness. An unexpectedly large jump in fear or complacency can dramatically change the very short term sentiment picture.

It's important to remember that when capitulation becomes a major factor that fear/volatility (VXN) can rise dramatically and though that normally would portend a nice rally, a lag time arises and one has to wait for the cycle low to go long QQQ once serious capitulation begins. The steep drop and quick snapback at NASDAQ cycle lows tends to form a V (a retest of the cycle low is a possibility also which is a W).

I suspect that the more extreme fear/volatility becomes (VXN spiking above 90 to 91+ as it did on 9-21-01 when the last extreme cycle low (major bottom) occurred) the more likely a "V" will occur and a more moderate peak level of fear/volatility (VXN spiking well above 70 but failing to reach 80) greatly increases the likelihood of a "W" pattern (retest and potential double bottom formation) cycle low occurring.

The moderate level of implied volatility/fear has a high correlation with a moderate level of volatility. Daily moves in COMPX on the order of 2%+ aren't surprising. Volatility (VXN) may rise sharply in the next few sessions because the intermediate term cycle is heading down and implied volatility (fear) tends to rise as the market falls.

If you buy QQQ at the wrong time you might experience substantial downside. Buying very near the cycle low takes nerves of steel and is only for highly skilled traders due to the extreme volatility. Don't try this at home unless maybe you are a highly skilled trader or you can live with a great deal of risk. For neophytes IF you try to trade the gold stocks or QQQ (or any highly volatile stock) you should only be using a modest amount of risk capital and should have a risk mitigation strategy.

Happy trading, may the force be with you,

Joe F. Rocks!

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The dashed lines above are for the folks at Trading-Ideas.Com and AfterHourTrades.Com so they know which commentary to use.

When using this site I suggest that you might need to open the home page in a number of different windows. You might want to access a number of pages at the same time such as this page, Astrikos real time VXN, Astrikos real time COMPX, etc. I added more real time resources to help time the upcoming cycle low and to improve the short term trading resources.

Please tell everyone about Joe F. Rocks! via word of mouth and email. Why not shoot an e mail right now to as many folks as you can think of? You'll feel better after doing so. Things are going well for me. I plan to soon get into the money management business and/or start a cycle timing service. I have an outstanding risk averse strategy that buys growth at cycle lows, switchs to value when a complacent market arises (after a major bottom/extreme cycle low), and shorts QQQ when a major sell signal occurs such as when VXN fell below 40 in March 2002 when COMPX was at 1950. I'm also learning how to time gold stock intermediate term cycles which can potentially earn returns in excess of 100%/year.

If someone knows of another timer/web site who makes the distinction between growth and value in terms of timing please e mail me and I'll post it here somewhere. Bottom line is that you are getting great information for free (at least for now). I now believe that I am one of the very few timers who knows how to time the market in both fearful and complacent markets AND who truly knows how to maximize returns with low risk by buying at cycle lows and being in growth when growth is timely and value when value is timely (as well as gold/silver stocks when they are timely and parking in the money market when transitions are (may be) occurring).

This in from Escol8th!

"Joe -
James Stack (www.investech.com) makes the distinction between value and growth in his work. He tends to focus on the longer term and employs several proprietary indicators. " Thanks Escol8th!

Also of course the CBOE Put/Call Ratio is a useful non contrarian indicator of the next trading session's action (at least the early part of the next day's action) with an elevated (>0.75) or high (>0.90) CBOE Put/Call Ratio pointing to weakness during the next NASDAQ trading session. When the CBOE Put/Call Ratio is very high (at or above 1.05) then the CBOE Put/Call Ratio might be a useful short term contrarian indicator (some judgement is involved).

The cycle low will probably occur when the OEX Volatility Index VIX > 50 and/or the NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index VXN > 80 as was the case during previous cycle lows in April/September 2001 and July/October 2002.

Why not make Joe F. Rocks! your start page? In Internet Explorer under "Tools" select "Internet Options" then select "General" where you can set your start page to http://www.joefrocks.com/ . At the very least if you like this site add it to your favorite places in a spot where you can readily find it. Please continue to tell your friends, relatives, and associates about Joe F. Rocks! via e mail and word of mouth!

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If you want to help this site out please feel free to add my home page link ( http://www.joefrocks.com/ ) and/or any other links to my content as long as your site isn't porno, hate, gambling, etc. related. It'll be a great way to improve the stickiness of your site and help this site out as well. Wealthy folks in such far flung places as Russia and the Slovak Republic read Joe F. Rocks! I've received dozens of favorable reviews.

Intermediate Term (3-6 Months) - Untimely. Likely to fall more than 15%.

Are growth stocks in a Bull Market??? - Before I declare that a new Bull Market in growth stocks has begun I want to see NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow establish a clearly positive trend of accumulation as opposed to the current trend of net selling.

Investor's Intelligence @ 51.10% of advisors bullish (On 4-9) - Investor's Intelligence is a primary barometer of the timeliness of growth stocks.

NASDAQ "Institutional" (really block trading data that includes individuals as well) Money Flow (Primary growth stock indicator) for the week ending 4-11 = Strongly Positive. Uptick block trades outpaced downtick block trades (1663 more uptick blocks) by 5.67% (2.54%, 0.80% more upticks the prior two weeks, 1.36% more downticks the prior week, 1.27%, 2.98%, 2.86%, 1.58%, 2.42%, 3.97%, 2.87%, 4.46%, 3.58% more upticks the prior nine weeks, 0.70% more downticks the prior week, 0.35% more upticks the prior week, 0.78%, 0.76% more downticks the prior two weeks, 2.96%, 1.86%, 0.07% more upticks the prior three weeks, 0.98% more downticks the prior week, 0.61%, 0.29%, 1.80% more upticks the prior three weeks, 0.84% more downticks the prior week, 1.02% more upticks the prior week, 0.91%, 0.94%, 1.21% more downticks the prior three weeks, 1.34%, 1.23%, 0.53%, 0.08% more upticks the prior four weeks, 1.14%, 1.57% more downticks the previous two weeks, 0.24% more upticks the prior week, 1.71%, 2.90%, 0.70% more downticks the previous three weeks, 0.74% more upticks the previous week, 2.81%, 2.32% more downticks the previous two weeks, 0.82%, 1.23%, 1.08%, 0.40% more upticks the previous four weeks, 0.57%, 3.28%, 0.45%, 2.16%, 0.76%, 1.13%, 2.39%, 0.19% more downticks the previous eight weeks, 1.07% more upticks the week before that, 2.34%, 3.49%, 3.52%, 2.34%, 1.15% , 0.69%, 0.89%, 1.49%, 0.87%, 2.48% more downticks the previous ten weeks. 1.20%, 1.50% and 0.60% more upticks the three weeks before that.).

The trend has been (past 30 months that I tracked it) 1% more downtick blocks than uptick blocks each week on average but the trend has changed dramatically the past three months with about 2.5% more upticks each week which bodes well for growth stocks once a major bottom occurs (extreme cycle low where VIX > 50 AND VXN > 80).

NYSE block trading data reveals very strong net buying for the week ending 4-11 though I don't tally it. Inflows have been very strong in recent months. This bodes well for a very strong rebound in the Dow and NYSE Composite (value stocks) after an extreme cycle low (major bottom) occurs.

This page will probably be updated after nearly each session (except when I'm on vacation or an occasional other circumstance arises) and may become a subscription page at some point. I plan to keep the rest of the site free however.

To keep apprised of updates to Joe F. Rocks! the Mind-it site appears useful though I haven't used it personally.

Alternatively or in addition to Mind-it, why not make Joe F. Rocks! your start page. In Internet Explorer under "Tools" select "Internet Options" then select "General" where you can set your start page to http://www.joefrocks.com/ .

If you entered Joe F. Rocks! on this page please check out the home page and the considerable resources that this site has to offer and don't forget to save it to your favorite places.

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