Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist

Joe F. Rocks! Trade the Cycles Updated 4-23-06

Growth Stock (NASDAQ) Timeliness - Monday - Timely (Strength/an uptrend, that could follow a gap down at the open and early weakness, during "much" of Monday's session is a "hit!.")
                                                           - Short Term Cycle (7-14 Days) - Timely (NDX/QQQ are in short term upcycles as of 4-21-06.)
                                                           - Minor Intermediate Term Cycle (about 10-14 Weeks) - Timely (NDX minor intermediate term upcycle as of 4-21-06.)

Brief Cycles Summary (Analysis/Commentary follows)

NASDAQ 100 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 4816.35.

NASDAQ 100 Long Term Cycle = Up since long term cycle low at 1301.93 on 8-13-04.

S & P 500 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 1552.87.

S & P 500 Long Term Cycle = Up since 8-13-04 long term cycle low at 1060.72. SPX is working it's way up to the very long term downcycle trendline.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began October 25, 2000 at 41.61 Bear Market/very long term cycle low.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 76.79 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 113.41 on 1-6-04.

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began on November 15, 2000 at 35.31 Bear Market/very long term cycle low. 

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 163.81 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 258.60 on 12-2-03.

Please see Cycles Summary for the details of the cycles that are the basis for my market timing system.

For those of you who entered this page directly and haven't discovered the vast resources on the home page yet please check out Joe F. Rocks! Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist, don't forget to bookmark it and please tell your colleagues and friends.

The long term downcycle trendlines for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and SPX (S & P 500) were broken during the week ending 11-5-04, and unexciting (because of the very long term downcycle since March 2000) long term cycle buy signals occurred shortly thereafter (see second chart). Long term cycle lows occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04 for NDX and at 1060.72 for SPX. NDX and SPX are in very long term downcycles since March 2000 (see SPX chart dated 11-16-04).

"Eerie Nikkei-SPX Parallels" (At Zeal) shows the high degree of correlation between the S & P 500's and NASDAQ's post bubble behavior and that of the Japanese stock market that experienced a bubble in 1989 and remains at much lower levels 17 years later.

As one can see in the NDX (NASDAQ 100) charts below, a long term (1 to 3 years) cycle high occurred on 1-20-04 at 1559.47 and a long term cycle low occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04. The collapse of the wall of worry from late November 2003 until late January 2004 and the dramatic trend change in NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow 131 weeks ago to negative/outflows correctly portended a trend change. Given last week's positive NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow, some strength is indicated this week, but cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration. A minor intermediate term upcycle is in place, because a 2% minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred recently (see first chart below). NDX is probably in a monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle.

The very long term downcycle (8-20 years in duration) which began in March 2000 probably has about 12 years to go. Paper assets (and hard assets in reverse fashion) tend to have very long term cycles that last about 35 years with about 17.5 years up (1982-2000) and 17.5 years down (2000-2018ish). There were very long term cycle highs (paper asset bubbles) in 1897, 1929, 1965ish, and in 2000 (about 35 years apart on average).

NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow (block trading data, 10,000+ share blocks) "portends" (this isn't a good one week look ahead indicator except when there's a well established multiweek trend and the minor intermediate term cycle agrees with it) some strength this week ending 4-28 (a minor intermediate term upcycle is in place at 4-21-06's close, which is the most important consideration, a 2% follow through buy signal occurred recently) with 1.02% (277) more uptick blocks during the week ending 4-21. This primary fundamental indicator has reliably predicted the NASDAQ's direction, having turned positive in March 2003 after being negative for about three years following the March 2000 bubble peak/very long term cycle high. NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow turned negative again 131 weeks ago however and has generally been substantially negative, which resulted in a sharp decline until 8-13-04's long term cycle low.

Breadth, a primary fundamental indicator, was negative on Friday 4-21 with NASDAQ A/D at 8:7 in favor of declining issues and NASDAQ Up/Down Volume was in favor of down volume by 17:7.

The NASDAQ wall of worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index)) grew on Friday 4-21 with VXN revealing that a significant (0.50-1.99%) rise in fear occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV revealed that a significant ( 0.50-1.99%) rise in fear occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock). The NASDAQ is deemed Timely on Monday due to the likely Wave 5 short term upcycle and the rise in fear. Worse than expected economic data may result in weakness. NDX appears to be in a monthly upcycle Wave 5 short term upcycle.

Williams %R for NDX is at -62.55 on 4-21-06 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). NDX is on a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (5% follow through after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline). NDX hit a minor intermediate term cycle 2% follow through buy signal recently (see top chart in group above). MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). RSI and Stochastics are on sell signals. 

A significant rise in fear occurred for the NASDAQ 100 on Friday with VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) rising +0.40 (+2.58%) to 15.92 while NDX (NASDAQ 100) fell -19.88 (-1.15%) to 1709.02 which reveals that a significant ( 0.50-1.99%) rise in fear occurred for NDX because VXN rose significantly more than NDX fell (NDX wall of worry grew) which portends strength in NDX on Monday, and, a Wave 5 short term upcycle is probably in place at session's end on Friday 4-21. A minor intermediate term upcycle is in effect, because a 2% follow through buy signal occurred. 

A significant (0.50-1.99%) (-1.18% decline in QQQQ + +2.52% rise in QQV = +1.34% which is a +1.34% rise in fear) +1.34% rise in fear occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, -0.50 (-1.18%) to 42.00) on Friday since QQQQ fell significantly while QQV rose sharply (QQQ Volatility Index, +0.36 (+2.52%) to 14.64) (QQQQ wall of worry grew) which portends strength in QQQQ on Monday, and, a Wave 5 short term upcycle is probably in place at session's end on Friday 4-21. A minor intermediate term upcycle is in effect, because a 2% follow through buy signal occurred.

On Friday VIX (which is now calculated using the implied volatility of SPX (S & P 500) options instead of OEX (S & P 100) options) fell -0.05 (-0.43%) to 11.59 versus a decline in SPX of -0.18 (-0.01%) to 1311.28 which was a modest (0.25-0.49%) rise in complacency (wall of worry shrank) for the S & P 500/value stocks (SPX is about 75% value stocks) since VIX fell modestly versus SPX falling slightly (S & P 500) which portends weakness in SPX on Monday, and, it's Wave 5 short term upcycle appears to have peaked, so SPX appears to be in a Wave A short term downcycle at session's end on Friday 4-21, which means that SPX's monthly cycle has probably turned down. 

The S & P 500 (SPX) is deemed Untimely on Monday due to the short term downcycle and the modest (0.25-0.49%) rise in complacency on 4-21. A short term downcycle is in place at Friday 4-21's close which usually would lead to weakness/a downtrend on Monday if it remains in place. Better than expected economic data may result in some strength. MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). Stochastics and RSI are on weak buy signals, because they flashed buy before reaching oversold territory. Williams %R for SPX is in overbought territory at -18.39 on 4-21-06 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). SPX is on a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (5% follow through after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline). SPX is in a minor intermediate term upcycle (2% follow through buy signal occurred).

The CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio at a high (at or above 0.90 but below 1.05) level = 0.93 at Friday's close points to some weakness/volatility on Monday due to the high level of fear (the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio at an extremely high 1.65 points to weakness/volatility), because it's a reliable non-contrarian indicator of the next session's early action except at very high (at or above 1.05) or very low levels (at or below 0.50) where it sometimes is also a contrarian indicator (sometimes portends early substantial strength (below 0.50) or a sharp rally following early potentially severe weakness (at or above 1.05), judgement is involved). Please keep in mind that cycle channels/trendlines are the most important consideration when timing any market.

Looking at NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Chicago Mercantile Exchange Commitments of Traders - Futures Only (Reportable Positions as of April 18, 2006), the Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 545 long futures contracts and added 9 short futures contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), whereas, the Commercial Traders added 532 long futures contracts and added 12 short futures contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator). NDX is in a minor intermediate term upcycle, a 2% follow through buy signal occurred. NDX appears to be in a monthly upcycle Wave 5 short term upcycle. Cycle trendlines/channels are the primary market timing consideration. NDX COT (do an edit then find "nasdaq" in Internet Explorer or Netscape to find it because it's near the bottom)

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) % Bullish (AAII has been a useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator at very low levels below 40% bullish and very high levels above 60% bullish.) @ 33.7% bullish last week from 45.4% the prior week is a negative factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 4-28-06 because it's at a low level of bullishness (between 30-40%). The change in or delta AAII % bullish is also a useful short term/weekly look ahead indicator in addition to the absolute value of AAII % bullish. The very sharp decline last week is a negative factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 4-28-06 because it's a very sharp rise in fear for this useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator. For now I'm using delta AAII % Bullish as a non contrarian indicator and I haven't determined exactly what significant changes are versus sharp or very sharp, etc. Since it appears to be strictly non contrarian (so far), I don't have to determine what an unusually large change is where the indicator becomes contrarian. The absolute value does become contrarian at extremely low (0-30% bullish) or extremely high (70-100% bullish) values, at least from an intermediate term cycle standpoint (a few weeks/months).

Gold & Silver Stocks - The Monthly Cycle Has Probably Turned Down
 

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 5 short term upcycle peaked on Wednesday 4-19 (see 1 year charts), which indicates that the monthly upcycle probably peaked on 4-19-06. Based on the major upcycle trendlines (see 1 year charts) the monthly cycle low target ranges are 305-320 for HUI, 49-52 for NEM, and 129-135 for the XAU. Keep in mind it's very likely that HUI/NEM/XAU's correction/monthly downcycle (the down portion of the monthly cycle) will have an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern, with each wave probably lasting about 3 to 5 days.
  

• "Trade the Cycles" Near Term Synopsis - HUI/NEM/XAU are probably in Wave A down of a monthly downcycle (see 1 year charts). Thursday 4-20's 5-7% mini crash had an Elliot Wave ABC pattern that correctly pointed to strength on 4-21, and, a rebound following such a dramatic decline isn't surprising, plus the monthly downcycle normally begins relatively flat, which pointed to a very sharp rebound. On Friday 4-21 HUI/NEM/XAU were in an intraday Wave B up after doing an Elliot Wave 12345 upcycle and a Wave A downcycle, so early strength on Monday 4-24 is likely, but will probably be brief. The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (see bullet just before the charts) is short term bearish because the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long. Federal Reserve Bank Credit (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/) rose a substantial +$5.857 Billion in the week ending 4-19-06, but this bullish indication is probably largely factored into the gold/silver stock market, because the monthly upcycle probably peaked on 4-19. The Fed's massive $13.750 Billion in Repos on Thursday 4-20 (see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) aided 4-21's rebound. In NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 note (third chart, very important) the Elliot Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 minor intermediate term upcycle from 5-16-05 until 9-30-05, which is why I believe 9-30-05 was the major upcycle's Elliot Wave 1 cycle high and arrived at the current count, with 1-31's cycle high being the end of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 3 for HUI/NEM/XAU and the cycle lows that occurred on 3-10 being the end of Wave 4 and the start of the Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle. The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some (possibly all) of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are probably breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle. HUI has no gaps to fill according to Yahoo's historical data. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally (that culminated in Wave 3 cycle highs on 1-31-06) occurred. The Elliot Wave 3 minor intermediate term cycle highs that occurred on 1-31-06 are important though not major/final cycle highs, because the major upcycle's Elliot Wave 5 cycle high probably lies ahead of us, and, should occur in the 400-450+ range for HUI, based on extrapolating the prior long term cycle highs since late 2000 when the Bull Market/very long term upcycle began. Gold's huge spike indicates that a monthly cycle high probably occurred (see 1 year chart).
  

• "Trade the Cycles" Big Picture Synopsis - The most important market timing consideration, therefore the most important thing to remember, is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle (began on May 10, 2004) since May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows (see latest charts), and, this major upcycle should last until about July or August 2006 based on the fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively longer (see first chart below and the HUI chart dated 5-12-05). HUI, NEM, and the XAU have been in a true Bull Market/very long term upcycle since October (NEM/XAU)/November (HUI) 2000 (see first chart below and the XAU chart dated 7-12-05). They've been in a long term upcycle since May 10, 2004 (see first chart below and the HUI chart dated August 5). They've been in a major intermediate term upcycle since May 16, 2005 (see latest charts). Gold began a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market in April 2001 and silver did so in late 2001. Elliot Wave Theory (see NEM chart dated 8-12-05 and the XAU chart dated 5-16-05) complements cycle channels/trendlines nicely (as do gaps), but is a secondary market timing tool, because cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration.

• The "Trade the Cycles" Blog (see link) is typically updated a few times each day and will provide you with the current "Trade the Cycles" assessment. From the Blog: "HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 cycle high, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high (see second chart) for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000 (see second chart), should occur in the 400-450+ range. " 

• The NEM Lead Indicator has thankfully turned bullish the past two weeks (+2.42%, +1.24 vs the XAU) after being very bearish at -1.02%, -1.22%, -2.06%, -1.30%, -1.06%, and -6.12% versus the XAU the prior six weeks. See the last chart in the first chart group. As HUI, NEM, and the XAU approach the end of their long term upcycle since 5-10-04 one would expect the NEM Lead Indicator to become very bearish, portending a dramatic decline that should occur after the long term cycle turns down, and, near term a substantial decline is likely, that will correct the monthly upcycle from 3-10-06 until 4-19-06. The XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility suggest that the XAU won't dramatically collapse any time soon, so the major upcycle since 5-16-05 (parabolic part of the long term upcycle) should remain intact for a few more months as expected, with July being an educated guess as to when it'll peak. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's dramatic rise to 1.65799 (May expiration) on 4-21 from 0.95164 (April expiration) on 4-7 from 0.84112 (April expiration) on 3-31, and, from 0.64172 (April expiration) on 3-24, despite substantial strength in the monthly upcycle, is a great sign because the wall of worry grew dramatically despite the XAU rising substantially. Also, XAU Implied Volatility, at 38.60 on Friday 4-21 versus at 34.175 on Friday 4-7, rose despite a very sharp rise in the XAU, which is a bullish indication for the major upcycle since 5-16-05. Given how bearish the NEM Lead Indicator is right now (See last chart in the first chart group), though it turned bullish the past two weeks which is another great sign, I'd be scared if the XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility weren't clearly bullish, but the bullish scenario/major upcycle appears to be safe. Also, if you noticed, long term bond yields have risen sharply recently, joining short term interest rates in a sharp uptrend. A rising interest rate, inflationary environment is bullish for the precious metals sector. With the US Dollar trending down, interest rates have to rise in order to attract foreign investors, except for those countries whose currencies are weaker than the US Dollar of course.

• Trade the Cycles lite is the cycle trendlines in the annotated charts, since cycle trendlines are the primary market timing consideration, with Elliot Wave and gaps also being very important. The detailed analysis of indicators and data is finetuning intended more for traders and sophisticated/experienced investors. Investors can simply view the cycle trendlines in the charts (with the Elliot Wave count) for a weekly update. Cycle trendlines (primary consideration) in concert with gaps and Elliot Wave are the crux of my "Trade the Cycles" system.

• The latest COT data (as of 4-18-06) is short term bearish since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).

• The remainder of the charts can be found at the bottom.
  

• The cycle types are Secular Bull or Bear Market/very long term up or downcycle, Cyclical Bull or Bear Market, long term up or downcycle, major intermediate term up or downcycle, minor intermediate term up or downcycle, monthly up or downcycle, short term up or downcycle, and very short term up or downcycle. Each upcycle is nearly always comprised of five Elliot Waves contained in a few of the next shorter cycles' cycles and each downcycle is nearly always comprised of three Elliot Waves contained in a few of the next shorter cycles' cycles. Each cycle is comprised of an up and down cycle of course, so really the complete cycles are very long term cycle (about 35 years up and down), cyclical Bull/Bear cycle (about 7 years), long term cycle (about 2 years), major intermediate term cycle (about 6-12 months), minor intermediate term cycle (a few months), monthly cycle (1-2 months), short term cycle (2-3 weeks), and very short term cycle (a few days to a week).

• As discussed in recent weeks Elliot Wave (see second chart) suggests that HUI/NEM/XAU are due for a 12-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market after long term cycle highs occur later this year, because this is the third long term upcycle or fifth Elliot Wave of the first Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market of the Secular Bull Market that began in late 2000. HUI/NEM/XAU are due timewise for a Cyclical Bear Market since very long term upcycles (and downcycles) last about 17-18 years on average and HUI/NEM/XAU will be about 6 years into this very long term upcycle later this year when Elliot Wave 5 long term and Elliot Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs will probably occur, since the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle began in October 2000 for NEM/XAU and in November 2000 for HUI. Notice in the second chart how far the XAU is above it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. The Cyclical Bear Market will "simply" (painful yes) bring HUI/NEM/XAU back to their Secular Bull Market trendlines, which could turn up some, so they may bottom in a few years above where those trendlines would be based on the current trendlines. Many and probably most Junior gold/silver stocks and some non Juniors should run mightily in HUI/NEM/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market due to begin once long term cycle highs occur later this year, because many (probably most) Junior gold/silver stocks' cycles dramatically lag those of HUI/NEM/XAU's. So, there should be a lot of money to be made during HUI/NEM/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market.
  

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in an Elliot Wave 5 long term upcycle since 5-10-04 (see first chart above), which is the third long term upcycle of the first/Elliot Wave 1 cyclical Bull Market of the secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in Oct 2000 (NEM/XAU)/Nov 2000 (HUI). There should be two more cyclical Bull Markets corresponding to Waves 3 and 5 of the secular Bull Market after this one peaks later this year. In the first chart I labeled the first major upcycle a long term upcycle, but it was only a six month major intermediate term upcycle that was the first segment/major upcycle of the long term upcycle that peaked in May 2002. The first cyclical Bear Market/long term downcycle of this secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since late 2000), corresponding to the secular Bull's Elliot Wave 2 down, is likely after long term cycle highs occur later this year and will probably last 12-18 months, based on gold/silver stocks such as CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines), MNG (Miramar Mining), NXG (Northgate Minerals Corp), RGLD (Royal Gold), and SIL (Apex Silver Mines) completing 14-16 month long term downcycles/cyclical Bear Markets in May 2005, that began after their early 2004 long term cycle highs. Their long term downcycles/cyclical Bear Markets all did Elliot Wave A, B, C down up down patterns.
  

• Now for HUI/NEM/XAU's Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since late 2000) Elliot Wave count! The long term cycle high that occurred in mid 2002 appears to be the Wave 1 cycle high (see first chart above). The long term cycle high that occurred on Dec 2, 2003 for HUI/NEM/Jan 6, 2004 for the XAU appears to be the Wave 3 cycle high. The long term cycle high that will occur in this long term upcycle later this year will probably be the final Wave 5 cycle high of the first cyclical gold/silver stock Bull Market within a primary/secular very long term Bull Market that may last 15-20 years or more, possibly until the year 2020 and beyond. The previous secular Bear market/very long term downcycle lasted about 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001 for gold. However, the interesting thing is that many gold/silver stocks dramatically lag HUI/NEM/XAU's cycles. CDE, Coeur D' Alene Mines, a silver (with some gold) stock, MNG (Miramar Mining), NXG (Northgate Minerals Corp), RGLD (Royal Gold), and SIL, Apex Silver Mines, hit long term cycle lows in May 2005 about a year after HUI/NEM/XAU did for example. Some silver stocks lag simply because silver's Bull Market lags gold's by about 6 months, since silver bottomed in late 2001 versus April 2001 for gold. With the help of cycles and Elliot Wave there will be many gold/silver stocks that can be invested in or traded after long term cycle highs occur later this year, if their cycles lag dramatically, as CDE, MNG, NXG, RGLD and SIL's do, but one must wait for them to experience major cycle lows of course. CDE, MNG, NXG, RGLD and SIL's long term cycle highs will be Wave 1 cycle highs of their new cyclical Bull Market, because they experienced an Elliot Wave A, B, C down, up, down cyclical 15-16 month Bear Market from their early 2004 long term cycle highs until their May 2005 long term cycle lows.

• Repurchase agreements (RPs or Repos) are a huge factor for Federal Reserve Bank Credit. I'm still in research mode but it looks like there's huge borrowing going on to buy index futures/options and baskets of indexes' components (index fund trading I've been discussing which is a huge factor for gold/silver stocks and many other sectors) courtesy of the Fed's Open Market Operations ( http://app.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ) which leads to occasional dramatic spikes in the stock market when there's a large increase in borrowing from the prior day/week or occasional dramatic plunges when there's a large decrease in borrowing from the prior day/week (Federal Reserve Bank Credit spikes or plunges http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ ). The US repo market reached USD 5 trillion (!) at the end of 2004 AND is growing at a two-digit pace, which means it's growing at over $500 Million/year!, so index fund trading is becoming even more of a factor.

  The US Federal Reserve and the European Repo Council (a body of the International Securities Market Association) both try to estimate the size of their respective repo markets. At the end of 2004, the US repo market reached USD 5 trillion and the European one passed EUR 5 trillion in outstandings. Both are growing at a two-digit pace. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repurchase_agreement

• It's becoming obvious that the reason why NEM is such a good lead indicator for HUI/XAU (see link) is because it's a component of SPX (S & P 500), and, since SPX is the 800 lb gorilla of indexes, it drives index fund trading, hence SPX is the ultimate lead indicator for HUI/XAU and many other indexes. Luckily however SPX's cycles don't match gold/silver stocks' cycles. SPX is in a very long term downcycle/primary Bear Market since March 2000 while HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in a very long term upcycle/primary Bull Market since October (NEM/XAU)/November (HUI) 2000. However, SPX obviously has a profound affect on gold/silver stocks' minor intermediate term and short term cycles due to index fund trading. Rapid modest % moves in SPX cause rapid significant moves in NEM and other gold/silver stocks in the many indexes affected by SPX.
  

• Williams %R is for HUI (-23.44)/NEM (-14.48)/XAU (-24.87) on 4-21-06 (see latest charts). It typically hits an extremely overbought level (near 0) near monthly cycle highs, which is a reliable indication to look to sell, which doesn't mean you mechanically sell, but that you probably will sell very soon or you may start selling (in 2 or 3 stages). The converse is of course true for oversold levels at or below -80, but the most important consideration by far is cycle channels/trendlines. Indicators and timing tools are used for finetuning buy/sell decisions after cycle trendline buy/sell signals suggest it's time to buy/sell (see charts above, most of you should probably be holding until a long term cycle sell signal occurs in 6 to 12 months).

• An important bullish development is that gold's major intermediate term upcycle trendline since early February has turned up/increased in strength (see 1 year chart above).
  

• The USD's put in a major intermediate term cycle high in mid November 2005 (see chart above). The USD is in a Wave C short term downcycle.              
  

• The Coefficient of Determination is the square of the correlation coefficient (the true strength of the correlation is determined by squaring the correlation coefficient) and explains how much the USD is determining gold's and silver's price action/variability or the S & P 500 is determining gold's or silver's price action/variability. The US Dollar determines 9.00% (+30% times +30% = 9.00%) of gold's price action/variability now since the USD's correlation coefficient with gold is +30% for the past 180 trading days as of 4-21-06. The USD determines 6.25% of silver's price action/variability since the USD's correlation coefficient with silver is 25% for the past 180 trading days on 4-21-06. The correlation coefficient, r, provides the direction of the correlation (+ or  -) but only the square root of the strength of the correlation. The coefficient of determination, r², provides the true strength of the correlation but without indicating its direction. Both of them must be used to fully understand the entire picture regarding correlation's effect. For the time being the US Dollar is only a very minor factor for precious metals.

• Many of the bullets haven't changed from last week because this is a system ("Trade the Cycles") and because some are reading this for the first time. Some bullets are needed for reference purposes or to revisit important developments in the precious metals sector. "Trade the Cycles" is a relatively new system (began in 2003) that only reached a well developed state in 2005. Major buy/sell signal requirements were improved (really were developed for the first time) in 2005.
  

• The major lesson learned from the fact that the downcycle from 9-30's (all dates 2005) monthly cycle high to 10-5's cycle low was a short term/weekly one (Elliot Wave A of an A, B, C downcycle) not a monthly one is that a downcycle's trendline usually begins relatively flat. The downcycle from 9-30 to 10-5 DID begin relatively flat from a short term cycle perspective, with flatness on 9-30 that wasn't evident on the daily chart. On a daily chart a monthly downcycle trendline will almost always begin relatively flat, with one or two short term cycle highs not far below the monthly cycle highs. That was the best clue that 10-5's cycle lows probably weren't monthly ones. HUI, NEM, and the XAU's downcycle trendlines fell off a cliff from 9-30 until 10-5's cycle low on the daily charts, which meant that 10-5's cycle lows were probably short term rather than monthly cycle lows. Therefore, it's very important to keep in mind the nature of cycles and the fact that they tend to begin relatively flat. Also, the downcycle from 9-30 to 10-5 was a relatively brief and shallow downcycle by monthly downcycle standards, which was another indication that it probably wasn't the monthly cycle bottoming.

• Once a cycle's parabola/parabolic trendline sell signal occurs it's time to get out (if you're trading that cycle timeframe), which is what happened recently, when HUI, NEM, the XAU, and gold hitting 2% follow through monthly cycle parabolic trendline sell signals in a recent monthly upcycle. HUI, NEM, and the XAU rolled over dramatically following their 2% monthly cycle sell signals, with HUI gaining only +1.41% in the nine sessions from 9-19 until 9-30 2005. Even if modestly or even significantly higher highs occur and a monthly upcycle is still in place until proven otherwise, risk is far too high to remain long following a 2% monthly cycle parabolic trendline sell signal, because of the dramatic decline in the rate of ascent (monthly upcycle dramatically rolls over and enters the flat topping part of the cycle). The important thing to remember is that the 2% follow through parabolic trendline sell signals don't guarantee that the monthly cycle high has occurred (though it often has), but it does clearly indicate that risk is far too high to remain long because the cycle has entered the relatively flat topping area. 
  

• When an upcycle's parabolic trendline, or "parabola" as I like to call it, breaks down, substantial declines almost always occur (see first chart and the USD chart). Once a cycle dramatically rolls over (rate of ascent declines dramatically), it's usually time to take profits if you're trading that cycle timeframe. Risk skyrockets following parabolic trendline sell signals as discussed in previous updates. Sideways action is a sign that a cycle high or low has occurred or is imminent. The best time to buy or sell is usually during sideways action after a cycle's "parabola" has broken down (or is broken to the upside). Almost all cycles have parabolic shaped trendlines, but, during the final spike move (or plunge/inverse spike for downcycles) some judgement is required as to what the parabolic or nearly vertical trendline is, which is the final segment of the "parabola."
  

• You must chart the cycles for the stocks you trade/invest in, because they can be radically different than those of HUI, NEM, and the XAU. For example, CDE and SIL just hit long term cycle lows in May 2005 versus HUI, NEM, and the XAU doing so on May 10, 2004.
  

• It can take a while for a major upcycle's trendline to establish itself. HUI is more volatile and therefore tends to have more uncertainty than NEM and the XAU. This is one of the good reasons to look at three major upcycles (HUI, NEM, and the XAU) rather than one. Also, NEM, being a reliable lead indicator and the largest market cap component of HUI and the XAU, has the most important cycles. The long term upcycle's (since May 10, 2004) rising bottoms trendline didn't exist until May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows (HUI, NEM, and the XAU. See first chart above and the HUI chart dated August 5). It took slightly over a year to establish itself and ended up being very flat, probably because the long term cycle lows occurred well above the very long term upcycle trendline (see top chart above). The very important point I'm trying to make is to understand that markets do reliably experience cycles (look at the charts above) even though it can take a while for a cycle's trendline to clearly establish itself, which can lead to surprises with shorter cycles.

• The major intermediate term upcycle trendlines since May 16, 2005 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (see charts above, gold since early February, see it's 1 year chart) should become more parabolic/sharply rising over time (clearly did recently), as cycles almost always do, and given that this should be the sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle (began on 5-10-04), dramatic gains should occur. HUI, NEM, and the XAU should approximately double from their major intermediate term cycle lows on 5-16-05 to their long term cycle highs as discussed in previous updates. This major intermediate term upcycle should last about twice as long as the previous one (6 months) from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04 and see about twice the gains (100% or more versus HUI's 51.50% from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04). Note in HUI's 5 year chart dated 6-29-05 (top chart above) that the long term cycles are getting longer. The previous long term upcycle's parabolic phase lasted about 9 months, so it's reasonable to assume that this one will last one year or more (now estimated to end July 2006).
  

• I update my gold/silver stock "Current Assessment" near the top of my home page (middle of the second bullet) typically weekly, so near critical times especially, you may want to check it out. Also, my "Trade the Cycles" Blog is updated usually two or three times a day.
  

• Gold put in a major bottom near $410 in early February 2005, so it led the stocks pricewise but didn't flash a major buy signal until June 2005 (see 1 year chart below), a few weeks after HUI, NEM, and the XAU did (see HUI chart dated 6-3-05). So, "major cycle effect wise" gold still lagged gold stocks even though pricewise it bottomed earlier, which is the first time I've seen gold lead gold stocks pricewise. Gold stocks still led gold in that they flashed a major intermediate term cycle buy signal a few weeks before gold did.
  

• If you're trading cycles you should sell whenever a parabolic trendline breaks down for whatever cycle timeframes you're trading (trade parabolas basically, see the first chart and other charts above, that have an ever increasing rate of ascent for upcycles or an ever increasing rate of descent for downcycles, use 2% follow through for minor buy/sell signals and 5% plus the NEM Lead Indicator for major buy/sell signals as previously discussed).
  

• Most of you should not be trading minor intermediate term cycles, but should be holding for the next approximately 6 to 9 months (the HUI 5 year charts dated 6-29-05 and 5-12-05 above shows that the long term cycles are getting longer), during which dramatic gains should occur for HUI, NEM, and the XAU because this is, according to the nature of cycles, the parabolic/sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle that began on May 10, 2004. HUI, NEM, and the XAU were very flat during the early phase of their long term upcycles, which isn't too surprising since cycles tend to begin relatively flat and become increasingly parabolic/sharply rising over time.
  

• The XAU 2 year chart dated 5-16-05 above shows the Elliot Wavesque 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 cycle structure of the major intermediate term upcycle from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04 as well as the A, B, C correction from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05. The fact that there are predictable cyclical patterns for gold/silver stocks and most if not all markets is well established. The major caveat being that one must know what the longer cycles are doing in order to time shorter cycle timeframes. The predictability of the long term cycles uptrend obviously comes from the very long term upcycle since late 2000 and knowing that very long term upcycles (and downcycles) tend to last about 17.2 years. Gold's very long term downcycle lasted 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001.
  

• Gold hit a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (see 1 year chart above) in June 2005 because it followed through by more than 5% after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline in place since early December 2004. This major buy signal lagged gold stocks' major buy signal by a few weeks, but this is the first time that I've seen gold hit a major bottom (early February 2005) well before gold stocks did (May 16, 2005) in this very long term upcycle since late 2000 for gold/silver stocks and since April 2001 for gold (late 2001 for silver), which is probably a major positive. Gold usually lags gold stocks at major cycle highs/lows. Gold peaked in early December 2004 versus HUI, NEM, and the XAU doing so on 11-17-04 and gold peaked in early April 2004 versus HUI and NEM doing so on 12-2-03 and the XAU doing so on 1-6-04 (long term cycle highs).
  

• Most of you will do much better holding for the next 6 to 9 months as opposed to actively trading, at which time long term cycle highs should occur for HUI, NEM, and the XAU. HUI may rise to about 400-450 in the next 6-9 months. NEM may rise to the 70-75 area in the next 6-9 months. The XAU may rise to about 180-190 in the next 6-9 months.

• Major intermediate term cycle lows occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU on 5-16-05 at 165.71 for HUI, at 34.90 for NEM, and at 78.23 for the XAU, that were above their long term cycle lows that occurred at 163.81 for HUI, at 34.70 for NEM, and at 76.79 for the XAU on 5-10-04.
  

• Looking at the top chart above, the 5 year HUI chart showing the 6 long term cycle 5% follow through buy/sell signals in the gold/silver stock very long term upcycle, one sees that all 6 long term cycle buy/sell signals correctly indicated that the long term cycle high or low was in (the NEM Lead Indicator is also needed when a potential long term cycle low occurs well above the very long term upcycle trendline as discussed previously). The probability that coincidence/pure luck led to that outcome is only 1.56% which is 50% raised to the sixth power. So, assuming that a very long term upcycle remains in effect (they last about 17.2 years on average), there's a very high probability that long term cycle buy/sell signals will work in the future. I can provide countless examples for shorter cycle timeframes where the parabolic trendline buy/sell signals worked every time. The caveat is that one must know what the longer cycles are doing (where their trendlines are) or you might use the wrong trendline and get an erroneous buy/sell signal.
  

• The correlation coefficient is the square root of the strength of the correlation. The correlation coefficient is +30% on 4-21 (+38% on 4-13) for the past 180 trading days for gold, according to Moore Research Center, Inc. For silver the correlation coefficient with the USD is +25% on 4-21 (+37% on 4-13) for the past 180 trading days. Silver's correlation is usually much more positive than gold's because it's more of an industrial metal than gold is, hence it usually has a more positive correlation with US economic strength and a strong US Dollar. 

• The Coefficient of Determination is the square of the correlation coefficient (the true strength of the correlation is determined by squaring the correlation coefficient) and explains how much the USD is determining gold's and silver's price action/variability or the S & P 500 is determining gold's or silver's price action/variability. The US Dollar determines 9.00% (+30% times +30% = 9.00%) of gold's price action/variability now since the USD's correlation coefficient with gold is +30% for the past 180 trading days as of 4-21-06. The USD determines 6.25% of silver's price action/variability since the USD's correlation coefficient with silver is 25% for the past 180 trading days on 4-21-06. The correlation coefficient, r, provides the direction of the correlation (+ or  -) but only the square root of the strength of the correlation. The coefficient of determination, r², provides the true strength of the correlation but without indicating its direction. Both of them must be used to fully understand the entire picture regarding correlation's effect.

• The report I received via e mail from Marketocracy for the week ending 4-21-06: "JFR - Joe F. Rocks's Mutual Fund, Net Asset Value (NAV): $17.20 on 4-21 vs $16.64 on 4-7, Compliant: Yes, This past week return: +3.44%." HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) was up +3.07% last week for comparison, so JFR outperformed HUI in 33 of the past 65 weeks (skipped short week ending 4-13). HUI is a better yardstick than NEM or the XAU, since it usually outperforms NEM and the XAU (in upcycles). HUI was up about 70% each year in 2001, 2002, and 2003, so outperforming HUI is no easy task. My imaginary mutual fund JFR is up 72.00% since it's inception on 1-5-05. For the three months ending 2-3-06 my JFR imaginary gold/silver stock fund at Marketocracy (see link) was the 64th best fund. JFR was better than 97.3% of their funds for the past year and was better than 99.4% of their funds for the past six months. I went to about 30% cash near the Wave 3 cycle high, which is near the allowable 35% limit.
  

• XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.33% to 38.600 on Friday 4-21 from 39.120 on 4-20 versus a +3.44% rise in the XAU on 4-21, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.11% rise in fear (-1.33% + +3.44% = +2.11%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.11%, therefore fear rose by +2.11%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Monday 4-24's session (fear is usually contrarian, therefore normally portends strength, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That strength/an uptrend could follow a gap down at the open and early weakness. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily a simplistic up or down session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is another very important indicator that may disagree with XAU Implied Volatility. These indicators must be used in concert with cycle channels/trendlines (very long term, cyclical Bull/Bear, long term, major intermediate term, minor intermediate term, short term, and very short term).

• The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at 1.65799 for the May expiration on 4-21 versus at 1.10287 for the April expiration on 4-13 versus at 0.95164 for the April expiration on 4-7 versus at 0.84112 for the April expiration on 3-31 versus at 0.64172 for the April expiration on 3-24 versus at 0.75672 for the final March expiration on 3-17 versus at 0.73200 for the March expiration on 3-10 versus at 0.78629 for the March expiration on 3-3 versus 0.92033 for the March expiration on 2-24 versus 1.07156 for the March expiration on 2-17 versus 1.30761 for the expired February expiration on 2-17 versus 1.17922 for the expired January expiration on 1-20 versus at 1.10113 for the January expiration on 1-13 versus at 0.90369 for the expired December expiration on 12-16 versus at 0.78388 for the November expiration on 11-4 versus at 0.80360 for the October expiration on 10-14 versus at 0.84470 for the September expiration on 9-9 versus at 0.85337 for the September expiration on 9-2 versus at 1.02491 for the September expiration on 8-26 versus at 0.73494 for the August expiration on 8-12 versus at 0.81863 for the July expiration on 7-1 versus at 0.91027 for the July expiration on 6-24 versus at 0.76954 for the June expiration on 6-17 versus at 0.87064 for the June expiration on 6-10 versus at 0.80155 for the June expiration on 6-3 versus at 0.55895 (May expiration) on 5-19 versus at 1.13583 (May expiration) on 4-22. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.65704 for the final January expiration value as of 1-21. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.79348 for the final December expiration as of 12-17-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 1.03065 for the final November expiration value as of 11-19-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.85989 for the final October expiration value as of 10-15. If it rises 6% or less it portends strength following likely early weakness (indicated by XAU Implied Volatility). If it falls 6% or less it portends weakness. At unusually large greater than 6% moves the XAU Put/Call Ratio becomes non contrarian, so a greater than 6% rise portends weakness (unusually large rise in fear) and a greater than 6% decline portends strength (unusually large rise in complacency).
  

• A major indicator (NEM Lead Indicator) portending some weakness this week (but all indicators and cycle channels/trendlines (most important consideration) must be considered collectively, not in isolation. Think "system.") is the fact that NEM underperformed the XAU last week by +2.42% (+1.24, -1.02%, -1.22%, -2.06%, -1.30%, -1.06%, -6.12%, +2.12%, +2.29%, -2.11%, +0.03%, -0.14%, -4.36%, +2.21%, -1.05%, +0.41%, +0.69%, +2.15%, +1.06%, +1.02%, -1.52%, +1.16%, -1.04%, -1.26%, -1.01%, -0.69%, -0.12%, +0.80%, +0.16%, -0.19%, +1.09%, +0.51%, -1.32%, -0.40%, +0.98%, +0.52%, -0.08%, +0.26%, +0.81%, -0.91%, -1.00%, -2.86%, -0.38%, +0.09%, -0.39%, -0.72%, -0.69%, -1.87%, +0.45%, -2.15%, -1.17%, +0.10%, +1.83%, +0.08%, +0.44%, and +0.97% the prior 55 weeks): +3.84% vs +3.44% on 4-21, -5.15% vs -6.11% on 4-20, +2.67% vs +3.37% on 4-19, +1.50% vs +1.98% on 4-18, +6.05% vs +4.29% on 4-17.      

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Commercial Traders are short gold. They are clearly positioned for gold weakness (largely because of hedging) with only 100,258 long futures and options contracts versus 277,182 short futures and options contracts (data as of 4-18-06). The Commercial Traders typically correctly begin to take substantial profits (and sell short) as a cycle rolls over/weakens (following cycle parabolic trendline sell signals) while the Speculators tend to overshoot when making the various trading decisions (buying, selling, shorting, short covering).

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Speculators are correctly positioned for gold strength with 178,042 long futures and options contracts versus only 46,041 short futures and options contracts (data as of 4-18-06).

• The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above) and keep in mind that the data is as of 4-18-06, so the data is somewhat stale (for short term cycle trading) by the time it's analyzed, but is highly useful nonetheless, especially for intermediate term cycle trading (a few weeks/months).

• The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above). 

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Commercial Traders are short silver. They are clearly positioned for silver weakness (largely because of hedging) with only 37,523 long futures and options contracts versus 105,582 short futures and options contracts as of 4-18-06. 

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Speculators are correctly positioned for silver strength with 54,403 long futures and options contracts versus only 12,811 short futures and options contracts as of 4-18-06.

• The silver Commercial Traders added 355 long futures and options contracts and covered 1549 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines.

• The silver Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 2634 long futures and options contracts and added 320 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines.

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Commercial Traders are positioned for US Dollar weakness (net short) with 14,169 long futures and options contracts versus 18,516 short futures and options contracts as of 4-18-06. Last week they added an unusually large (> 10% increase in long contracts) 1341 long futures and options contracts and covered 26 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long trade is a short term contrarian indication. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above).
  

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Speculators are positioned for US Dollar strength (massively net long) with 11,893 long futures and options contracts versus 5120 short futures and options contracts as of 4-18-06. Last week they added 427 long futures and options contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 994 short futures and options contracts which portends USD weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large short trade is a short term non contrarian indication, but the long trade points to some weakness. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above).
  

• FREE COT (Commitments of Traders) Charts (see link) reveal that the Commercial Traders generally know what they're doing and the Speculators don't. The Commercial Traders tend to be near net short extremes near major tops and near net long extremes near major bottoms, thus making them non contrarian indicators most of the time. The Speculators tend to do just the opposite and are contrarian indicators most of the time.

• Detailed analysis regarding the important long term upcycle buy signal and other important "big picture" information as well as information about my system/indicators can be found at this link.
  

• Cycle channels and trendlines are the primary market timing consideration (other tools/indicators are great for finetuning), except the NEM Lead Indicator is (really only) needed for major buy signals when the potential major cycle low occurs well above the next longer cycle's trendline, such as occurred on May 10, 2004 when long term cycle lows occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU well above their very long term upcycle trendlines in place since late 2000 (see top chart above). Since May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle low occurred right at the very long term upcycle trendline for the XAU (see 5 year chart dated 7-12-05), the NEM lead Indicator wasn't really required (in addition to the 5% follow through requirement), but given how long and brutal the (major intermediate term downcycle from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05) correction was we needed all the confidence we could get. In other words, if HUI, NEM, and the XAU bounce dramatically at their Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines or long term upcycle trendlines and 5% or more follow through occurs after breaking their major downcycle trendlines, that strongly suggests that the next longer cycle remains in effect and that a major buy signal has occurred.
  

• The 5% follow through requirement combined with the NEM Lead Indicator, the two new major buy/sell signal requirements, would have weeded out all six important cycle lows that occurred prior to 5-16-05 in the major correction (from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05), and, correctly indicated that 5-16-05 was a major intermediate term cycle low. So, the two new major buy/sell signal requirements worked seven consecutive times and there's only a 0.78% chance that result was due to pure luck (50% raised to the seventh power).

• My system/work is NOT about me making educated guesses and calling bottoms, even though I (mistakenly) did that in the major correction from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, partly for reasons such as HUI having, until early April 2005, a well developed trendline since 5-10-04's long term cycle low that appeared to be it's long term upcycle trendline. The reason why I'm developing a backtested system ("Trade the Cycles") is because it's impossible to consistently time the market (by educated guessing) using an unbacktested approach comprised of technical analysis and indicators. From now on, where major bottoms are concerned, I'll only indicate that a likely major bottom has occurred after the two major buy signal criteria are satisfied (The 5% follow through requirement in concert with a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator for a few weeks), which would have weeded out all 6 important cycle lows (see next bullet) that occurred during the major intermediate term downcycle from being major intermediate term cycle low candidates, and there's only a 1.56% probability that was the result of pure luck (50% raised to the sixth power). Assuming that May 16, 2005 really was a major intermediate term cycle low then the two major buy signal requirements will have been effective 7 consecutive times and there's only a 0.78% chance that was the result of pure luck (50% raised to the seventh power).