Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist

Joe F. Rocks! Trade the Cycles Updated 5-22-05

Growth Stock (NASDAQ) Timeliness - Monday - Untimely (Weakness/a downtrend, that could follow a gap up at the open, during "much" of Monday's session is a "hit!.")
                                                           - Very Short Term (2-3 Days) - Untimely (NDX/QQQ are in short term upcycles but are extremely overbought)
                                                           - Short Term (1-3 Weeks) - Untimely (NDX short intermediate term cycle low occurred recently but VXN (NDX implied volatility index/wall of worry) fell dramatically recently and money flow was very negative last week.)

Brief Cycles Summary (Analysis/Commentary follows)

NASDAQ 100 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 4816.35.

NASDAQ 100 Long Term Cycle = Up since long term cycle low at 1301.93 on 8-13-04.

S & P 500 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 1552.87.

S & P 500 Long Term Cycle = Up since 8-13-04 long term cycle low at 1060.72. SPX is working it's way up to the very long term downcycle trendline.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began October 25, 2000 at 41.61 Bear Market/very long term cycle low.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 76.79 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 113.41 on 1-6-04.

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began on November 15, 2000 at 35.31 Bear Market/very long term cycle low. 

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 163.81 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 258.60 on 12-2-03.

Please see Cycles Summary for the details of the cycles that are the basis for my market timing system.

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Analysis/Commentary -

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) opened slightly lower on Friday 5-20, but, COMPX trended modestly higher most of the session, spent much of the session in positive territory, and closed slightly higher at a session high 2046.42, +3.84 (+0.19%).

The long term downcycle trendlines for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and SPX (S & P 500) were broken during the week ending 11-5-04, so (unexciting because of the very long term downcycle since March 2000) long term cycle buy signals occurred. Long term cycle lows occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04 for NDX and at 1060.72 for SPX. NDX and SPX both remain in very long term downcycles since March 2000 (see SPX chart dated 11-16-04).

"Eerie Nikkei-SPX Parallels" (At Zeal) shows the high degree of correlation between the S & P 500's and NASDAQ's post bubble behavior and that of the Japanese stock market that experienced a bubble in 1989 and remains at much lower levels 15 years later.

As one can see in the NDX (NASDAQ 100) charts below, a long term (1 to 3 years) cycle high occurred on 1-20-04 at 1559.47 and a long term cycle low occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04. The collapse of the wall of worry from late November 2003 until late January 2004 and the dramatic trend change in NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow 83 weeks ago to negative/outflows correctly portended a trend change. Given last week's very negative NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow, some weakness is likely this week.

The very long term downcycle (3-10+ years in duration) which began in March 2000 probably has about 13 years to go. Paper assets (and hard assets in reverse fashion) tend to have very long term cycles that last about 35 years with about 17.5 years up (1982-2000) and 17.5 years down (2000-2018ish). There were very long term cycle highs (paper asset bubbles) in 1897, 1929, 1965ish, and in 2000 (about 35 years apart on average).

Confirmation of an NDX long term cycle high occurred when the straight long term cycle trendline broke down (see chart dated 2-27-04) which confirmed the parabolic trendline sell signal that occurred shortly after the long term cycle high.

NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow (block trading data) "portends" (this isn't a good one week look ahead indicator except when there's a well established multiweek trend and the intermediate term cycle agrees with it) weakness this week ending 5-27 (a short intermediate term upcycle is in place as of 5-20-05, which is the most important consideration) with 3.36% (661) more downtick blocks during the week ending 5-20. This primary fundamental indicator has reliably predicted the NASDAQ's direction, having turned positive in March 2003 after being negative for about three years following the March 2000 bubble peak/very long term cycle high. NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow turned negative again 83 weeks ago however and has generally been substantially negative, which resulted in a sharp decline until 8-13-04's long term cycle low.

Breadth, a primary fundamental indicator, was mixed on Friday 5-20 with NASDAQ A/D at nearly 15:14 in favor of declining issues but NASDAQ Up/Down Volume was in favor of up volume by nearly 9:5.

The NASDAQ wall of worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index)) shrank substantially on Friday 5-20 with VXN revealing that a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV revealed that a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock). The NASDAQ is deemed Untimely on Monday. A short term upcycle was in place at Friday 5-20's close that may lead to strength if it remains in place. Better than expected economic data may result in strength.

Williams %R for NDX is in extremely overbought territory at 0.00 on 5-20-05 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). A parabolic trendline (trendline connecting daily cycle highs was broken) intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred for NDX five weeks ago. MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). RSI and Stochastics are on buy signals in extremely overbought territory. NDX is on the verge of a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (5% follow thorugh after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline).

A very sharp rise in complacency occurred for the NASDAQ 100 on Friday with VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) falling -1.07 (-6.31%) to 15.88 while NDX (NASDAQ 100) rose +6.63 (+0.44%) to 1528.06 which reveals that a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency occurred for NDX because VXN fell much more than NDX rose (NDX wall of worry shrank substantially) which portends weakness in NDX on Monday, but, a short term upcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 5-20. 

A  very sharp (3-6%, +0.39% rise in QQQQ + -4.03% decline in QQV = -3.64% which is a 3.64% rise in complacency) 3.64% rise in complacency occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, +0.15 (+0.39%) to 37.66) on Friday since QQQQ rose modestly while QQV fell very sharply (QQQ Volatility Index, -0.61 (-4.03%) to 14.51) (QQQQ wall of worry shrank substantially) which portends weakness in QQQQ on Monday, but, a short term upcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 5-20. 

On Friday VIX (which is now calculated using the implied volatility of SPX (S & P 500) options instead of OEX (S & P 100) options) fell -0.18 (-1.35%) to 13.14 versus a decline in SPX of -1.80 (-0.15%) to 1189.28 which was a significant (0.50-1.99%) rise in complacency (wall of worry shrank) for the S & P 500/value stocks (SPX is about 75% value stocks) since VIX fell significantly despite SPX falling slightly (S & P 500) which portends weakness in SPX on Monday, but, a short term upcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 5-20. 

The S & P 500 (SPX) is deemed Untimely on Monday. A short term upcycle was in place at Friday 5-20's close which points to strength on Monday if it remains in place. Better than expected economic data may result in some strength. An intermediate term cycle (1 to 12 months) parabolic trendline (connecting daily cycle highs) buy signal occurred five weeks ago. MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). Stochastics and RSI are on buy signals. Williams %R for SPX is in extremely overbought territory at -4.31 on 5-20-05 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). 

The CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio at a high (at or above 0.90 but below 1.05) level of 0.93 at Friday's close points to early weakness/a downtrend/volatility on Monday that could be followed by strength (the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio at an extremely high 2.23 points to weakness/volatility) because it's a reliable non-contrarian indicator of the next session's early action except at extremely high (at or above 1.05) or extremely low levels (at or below 0.50) where it sometimes is also a contrarian indicator (sometimes portends early substantial strength (below 0.50) or a sharp rally following early potentially severe weakness (at or above 1.05), judgement is involved). Please keep in mind that cycle channels/trendlines are the most important consideration when timing any market.

The NASDAQ TRIN closed at a modestly bearish level of NA (modestly more activity in xxxxing issues) on Friday which is xxxxtive technically. A level between 0.35 and 0.80 is a bullish range for the NASDAQ TRIN because it indicates much more activity in rising issues. A NASDAQ TRIN above 1.00 indicates more activity in declining issues. A NASDAQ TRIN between 1.20 and 1.50 is a clearly bearish "red zone" range because it indicates much more activity in declining issues but not a very oversold condition. If the NASDAQ TRIN rises above 1.50 (oversold condition) you can begin to look for a rally and if it rises above 2.00 that tends to be a reliable short term buy signal (very oversold condition).

Looking at NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Chicago Mercantile Exchange Commitments of Traders - Futures Only (Reportable Positions as of May 17, 2005), the speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 187 long contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) 2144 short contracts which portends weakness this week (unusually large increase in the short position is the non contrarian case for this normally contrarian indicator), whereas the commercial traders added an unusually large (> 10% increase in long position) 3441 long contracts and covered 1384 short contracts which portends weakness this week (unusually large increase in the long position is the contrarian case for this normally non contrarian indicator). NDX COT (do an edit then find "nasdaq" in Internet Explorer or Netscape to find it because it's near the bottom)

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) % Bullish (AAII has been a useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator at very low levels below 40% bullish and very high levels above 60% bullish.) @ 38.9% bullish last week from 30.5% the prior week is a negative factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 5-27-05 because it's at a very low level of bullishness (below 40%). The change in or delta AAII % bullish is also a useful short term/weekly look ahead indicator in addition to the absolute value of AAII % bullish. The very sharp rise last week is a positive factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 5-27-05 because it's a very sharp rise in complacency for this useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator contrarian. For now I'm using delta AAII % Bullish as a non contrarian indicator and I haven't determined exactly what significant changes are versus sharp or very sharp, etc. Since it appears to be strictly non contrarian (so far), I don't have to determine what an unusually large change is where the indicator becomes contrarian. The absolute value does become contrarian at extremely low (0-30% bullish) or extremely high (70-100% bullish) values, at least from an intermediate term cycle standpoint (a few weeks/months).

Gold & Silver Stocks - The Long Term Cycle Lows Hold and Useful Elliot Wave Patterns

• Not only does a gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle (began late 2000) remain intact, but the long term upcycle that began May 10, 2004 also remains in place, at least until proven otherwise. Potential major intermediate term cycle lows occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU on 5-16-05 at 165.71 for HUI, at 34.90 for NEM, and at 78.23 for the XAU, that were above their long term cycle lows that occurred at 163.81 for HUI, at 34.70 for NEM, and at 76.79 for the XAU on 5-10-04.
  

• If a long term upcycle is in effect, it had a very flat start, partly because the long term cycle lows occurred well above the very long term upcycle/Bull Market trendlines. It'll be interesting to see if my assumption that May 10, 2004's major cycle lows are long term cycle lows is correct or if they turn out to be major intermediate term cycle lows on the way to long term cycle lows. The fact that the major cycle lows on 5-10-04 occurred well above the Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines complicated matters. Even if things don't go as expected cycles allow you to figure out what's going on. The five year charts below for NEM and the XAU from last week clearly show that the Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines remain intact for gold/silver stocks.
  

• The great news this week is the COT (Commitments of Traders) data (as of 5-17-05) for gold, silver and the USD clearly points to a continuation of the gold Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in April 2001 (HUI, NEM, and the XAU's began in October/November 2000 and silver's began in late 2001) and a continuation of the USD Bear Market/very long term downcycle that began in June 2001. A minor negative is the reliable non contrarian gold Commercial Traders only added a modest 860 (11,417, 9363 added the prior two weeks) long futures/options contracts after aggressively adding to their long position the prior two weeks. However, they continued their massive short covering, covering an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 29,470 (17,544, 26,014 covered the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large decrease in their short position is the contrarian case short term for this normally non contrarian indicator. The massive short covering is a major positive on an intermediate term cycle basis (weeks/months) of course.
  

• Gold will probably take out it's early February low near $412 since it usually lags gold stocks at major cycle highs/lows. Gold peaked in early December 2004 versus HUI, NEM, and the XAU doing so on 11-17-04 and gold peaked in early April 2004 versus HUI and NEM doing so on 12-2-03 and the XAU doing so on 1-6-04 (long term cycle highs). Gold fell significantly last week versus HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) rising +2.23%, so gold appears to be lagging.
  

• The big story is last week's US Dollar COT data. The reliable non contrarian USD Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 2151 (616, 403, 1728, 2192, 4322, 3274 sold the six weeks ending 4-19-05) long futures and options contracts and added a humongous/unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 7151 (307, 2494 added the prior two weeks and 770, 2662, 2421, 1576 added the four weeks ending 4-12-05) short futures and options contracts which portends USD strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large decrease in their long position and increase in their short position points to strength (contrarian case short term), but the humongous short trade may actually point to weakness very soon as discussed below.
  

• The normal interpretation of unusually large changes is that the normally non contrarian USD Commercial Traders become short term contrarian. However, I suspect they're anticipating/have good reason to expect a breakdown in the USD's major intermediate term upcycle (see 3 year chart below) very soon, otherwise why add a humongous 7151 short contracts. I've never seen such a large trade in the USD COT. That would be akin to about a 100,000 contract trade in the gold COT. It appears they have some information, such as maybe an imminent Chinese Yuan revaluation, that caused them to trade with a great deal of conviction. The USD is in the parabolic/vertical uptrend segment of it's long intermediate term upcycle that began in late December 2004 (see 3 year chart below), which means that it's likely to break down soon. The USD's major intermediate term upcycle since late December 2004 has closely coincided with gold's major intermediate term downcycle since early December 2004 as expected.
  

• NEM underperformed the XAU last week by a wide margin of -1.87% and the XAU Put/Call Ratio rose dramatically to 0.78287 for the June expiration on 5-20 versus at 0.55895 for the May expiration on 5-19. So, both the NEM Lead Indicator and the XAU Put/Call Ratio's unusually large rise in fear portend weakness this week. Also, XAU Implied Volatility portends potentially substantial weakness/a downtrend (that could follow a gap up and early strength) on Monday 5-23 as discussed later. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's dramatic rise in fear is a major positive on an intermediate term cycle basis (weeks/months), but is typically a very short term (a few days) negative.
  

• "Trade the Cycles" is on a major intermediate term cycle sell signal, but gold/silver stocks are in a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market since October/November 2000 (see 5 year charts for HUI, NEM, and the XAU below) and may be in a long term upcycle since May 10, 2004. Major intermediate term cycle highs occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU on 11-17-04. Gold peaked a few weeks later, lagging the stocks as it usually does at major highs/lows. Gold began a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market in April 2001 and silver did so in late 2001.
  

• A major intermediate term upcycle occurred last year with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Elliot Wave pattern and the Elliot Wave A, B, C, type major correction/intermediate term downcycle may have run it's course. See the XAU chart dated 5-16-05 below.
  

• All three prior long term upcycles and the major intermediate term upcycle (the first segment of the current/potential long term upcycle) from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04 in this gold/silver stock Bull Market since late 2000 followed an Elliot Wave pattern of 5 important upcycles/downcycles or waves as Elliot Wave calls them (see the 3 year XAU chart dated 5-16-05 below that shows the 2 latest major upcycles and the 5 Elliot Wave points corresponding to the important cycle highs/lows as well as the two latest A, B, C, Elliot Wave type major corrections/downcycles. StockCharts.com goes back only 3 years for it's free charts, hence only 2 of the four major upcycles/downcycles are shown). 

• Major upcycles according to Elliot Wave Theory have, to my knowledge, 5 important cycle highs/lows resulting from 5 important upcycles/downcycles or Elliot Waves, with points 1, 3, and 5 being cycle highs, points 2 and 4 being cycle lows, and point 5 is a major cycle high resulting from the parabolic segment of the major upcycle. Major downcycles according to Elliot Wave Theory have, to my knowledge, 3 important cycle highs/lows resulting from 3 important upcycles/downcycles or Elliot Waves, with points A and C being important cycle lows, point B being an important cycle high, and point C is a major cycle low. So, HUI , NEM, and the XAU may have put in a major cycle low/point C on 5-16-05, or, one should occur in the near future according to Elliot Wave Theory.
  

• All 4 major corrections/downcycles in this gold/silver stock Bull Market since late 2000 followed the A, B, C (down up down) Elliot Wave major downcycle pattern. One in 2002 had two small zig zags in close proximity on the way down but still basically followed a down up down zig zag pattern, with two dramatic declines interrupted by a period of rebounding action. The probability that all 4 major upcycles and all 4 major downcycles in this gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle since late 2000 would follow an Elliot Wave pattern is 50% raised to the 8th power which equals 0.36%. So, it appears that Elliot Wave will be very useful for determining likely major cycle structures, but cycle channels/trendlines must be used for precise timing.
  

• Since the long term cycles (in this gold/silver stock Bull Market) are getting longer the major intermediate term upcycles have begun to have tradable Elliot Wave patterns. Elliot Wave isn't a precise market timing tool but it does provide a reliable cycle structure for the important cycle highs/lows within major cycles. HUI, NEM, and the XAU will probably do an Elliot Wave 1, 2, 3, 4 "zig zag" for a few months (the flat part of the major intermediate term upcycle) before going parabolic and hitting a long term cycle high at point 5 in 6-12 months, assuming that a long term upcycle is in effect, which is doubtful now. Keep in mind that this major upcycle may be the parabolic/sharply rising segment of the long term upcycle that may have begun on 5-10-04, therefore this major (intermediate term) upcycle may far surpass the 51.50% gain that HUI experienced from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04, which was a major intermediate term upcycle and potentially the first very flat segment of the long term upcycle. HUI may rise on the order of 100% to about 330 in the next 6-12 months if a long term upcycle is in effect. NEM may rise to the 70-75 area in the next 6-12 months in that case.
  

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU are approaching their Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines which suggest that a major low near 33 is possible for NEM and one near 75 is possible for the XAU (see 5 year charts below). HUI's Bull Market trendline is more difficult to ascertain because it's chart is more parabolic, so I haven't taken a stab at it yet.
  

• Because the long term cycle lows on May 10, 2004 occurred well above the Bull market trendlines, it appeared for a long time that those trendlines had turned up/begun to go parabolic. Since, based on past cyclic behavior, the gold/silver stock Bull Market should last about 18 years (The Bear Market lasted 21 years) it probably didn't make sense for the Bull Market trendlines to turn up so early, at least not as much as they appeared to. The good news is that a gold/silver stock Bull Market remains intact.
  

• Interestingly, at this point the long term upcycle for HUI, NEM, and the XAU is similar to the previous ones (see the HUI 5 year chart). The cycle timeframes are getting longer however. The prior two long term cycles in this gold/silver stock Bull Market (since late 2000) had lower major (intermediate term cycle) highs after long term cycle highs that were followed shortly thereafter by the parabolic/sharply rising segment of the long term upcycle (the long term cycles have been getting longer, see the first chart below, the HUI 5 year chart). The trend of longer long term cycles means that major corrections will tend to be longer also.
  

• There's a big difference between trading aggressively net long due to massive short covering and trading aggressively long, so the large additions to the gold/silver Commercial Traders long positions in recent weeks (but not last week where a modest addition occurred for gold) is a major positive. Also, NEM outperformed the XAU in 6 of the past 9 weeks which is a good sign.

• The negative correlation between gold and the USD is high. It's -79% on 5-20 (-80% on 5-13) for the past 180 days for gold, according to Moore Research Center, Inc. For silver the negative correlation with the USD is -43% on 5-20 (-45% on 5-13) for the past 180 days. Silver's negative correlation is much less than gold's because it's more of an industrial metal than gold is, hence it has a more positive correlation with US economic strength and a strong US Dollar. 

• The positive correlation between gold and the S & P 500 is 56% for the past 180 days, according to Moore Research Center, Inc., probably because NEM is in the S & P 500 and hence is traded by index funds and other funds that want to have a high correlation with that index. This means that the S & P 500 determines 31.36% of gold's price action/variability (Coefficient of Determination = 56% squared = 31.36%). The S & P 500's sharp decline from early March until late April is a major reason why gold and gold stocks were weak during that stretch. So, much of the problem in the gold sector recently has been due to substantial weakness in the S & P 500 from early March until late April as well as the week before last. The next bullet discusses the Coefficient of Determination.
  

• The Coefficient of Determination is the square of correlation and explains how much the USD is determining gold's and silver's price action/variability or the S & P 500 is determining gold's or silver's price action/variability. The US Dollar determines 62.41% (-79% times -79% = 62.41%) of gold's price action/variability now since the USD's negative correlation with gold is -80% as of 5-13-05. The USD determines only 18.49% of silver's price action/variability since the USD's negative correlation with silver is -43% as of 5-20-05. The correlation coefficient, r, provides the direction of the correlation (+ or  -) but only the square root of the strength of the correlation. The coefficient of determination, r², provides the true strength of the correlation but without indicating its direction. Both of them must be used to fully understand the entire picture regarding correlation's effect.

• As long as reliable lead indicator NEM's Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline in the 5 year chart below remains intact a gold/silver stock Bull Market should remain in place. The key chart therefore is NEM's.
  

• Gold/silver stocks are correcting the spectacular gains seen in 2001, 2002, and 2003 when HUI rose about 70% in each of those years.
  

• NEM hit a long term cycle low at 22.70 on 7-26-02 and a major intermediate term cycle low at 24.08 on 3-13-03 in the previous long term upcycle (then entered the parabolic segment of it's long term upcycle and hit a long term cycle high at 50.28 on 12-2-03), so the very flat start to this potential long term upcycle isn't unusual (cycles tend to begin relatively flat anyway so it jives with the nature of cycles).
  

• Relatively new components added to HUI/XAU cause the current HUI/XAU versus the old ones to have less than a 100 percent correlation. Very volatile newer components such as CDE in HUI and PAAS in the XAU add to the uncertainty, so one has to keep this in mind.
  

• Gold may plunge this week, lagging gold stocks which plunged in April. Gold hasn't experienced it's capitulation/steep/vertical high volatility phase yet, and assuming gold is lagging gold stocks (gold peaked in early December versus the stocks peaking on 11-17-04), then gold will probably take out it's early February low in the $412 area.

• One of the two major buy signal criteria has been satisfied. The NEM Lead Indicator was bullish for five straight weeks. NEM outperformed the XAU during the five weeks ending 4-22 by +0.10%, +1.83%, +0.08%, +0.44% and +0.97%. See the 3 month chart below, which is the last chart in the first group below.
  

• The Gold:XAU Ratio (currently at 5.17 using the numbers from the charts below) may become a third major buy signal criterion, along with 5% follow through and a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator. Per Myles Zyblock, Chief North American Institutional Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, when it's above 5.0 (12% of the time the past 22 years) the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been +38.4% and in only one instance was there a loss. When it's below 3.0 (5% of the time the past 22 years) the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been -24.3% with no instances of an up year. As a stand alone indicator, at least for trading purposes, the Gold:XAU Ratio probably isn't highly useful because obviously both gold and the XAU can fall 10% or more in tandem after reaching 5.0 or rise 10%+ after reaching 3.0. However, I need to research/backtest this.
  

• My system/work is NOT about me making educated guesses and calling bottoms, even though I (mistakenly) did that in this major correction, partly for reasons such as HUI having, until recently (early April), a well developed trendline since 5-10-04's long term cycle low that appeared to be it's long term upcycle trendline. The reason why I'm developing a backtested system ("Trade the Cycles") is because it's impossible to consistently time the market (by educated guessing) using an unbacktested approach comprised of technical analysis and indicators. From now on, where major bottoms are concerned, I'll only indicate that a likely major bottom has occurred after the two major buy signal criteria are satisfied (The 5% follow through requirement in concert with a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator for a few weeks). 

• Once a major buy signal occurs, waiting for the gold Commercial Traders to make a substantial addition to their long position, as opposed to just engaging in massive short covering, makes sense.
  

• The 5% follow through major buy signal requirement (after breaking through the intermediate term downcycle trendline connecting short term cycle highs) weeds out the December 8, 2004, January 6, 2005, and March 29, 2005 cycle lows from being a major intermediate term cycle low, but not the February 8 (HUI/XAU)/9 (NEM) 2005 cycle low. However, the NEM Lead Indicator clearly indicated (weeds out) that the February 2005 cycle low probably wasn't a major low. It appears that the 5% follow through requirement in concert with a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator for a few weeks will work well for timing major buy signals.
  

• Buying and holding major intermediate term upcycles (that last about 3 to 12 months) makes a lot of sense, but not long term or very long term upcycles, because they're too flat (rising bottoms) and one loses too much during major corrections (However, with good stock selection, one can do very well with buy and hold during this gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000). This is a change from my belief that one should hold during long term upcycles. One should wait for a major intermediate term cycle buy signal before buying. So, it makes sense to be long during major intermediate term cycle buy signals and in cash and/or short during major intermediate term cycle sell signals.
  

• Cycles are the most important consideration when timing any market. A very long term upcycle has been in place since late 2000 and a long term upcycle has been in place since May 10, 2004 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (gold began a very long term upcycle in April 2001). Very long term upcycles (and downcycles) tend to last about 17.5 years on average. Gold's previous very long term downcycle lasted from 1980 until April 2001.

• Cycle channels/trendlines are the most important consideration in timing any market. As I've said before, if you find that the detailed technical work is too much to digest, the cycle channels/trendlines in the charts are by far the most important consideration, so one can still use my system even if the indicators/technical work are difficult to grasp (right now, sometimes with perseverance one might grasp it).
  

• The remainder of the charts can be found at the bottom. The very long term upcycle trendlines are now flat rather than parabolic (with a segment having turned up), but the major buy/sell signals shown still apply. The last HUI chart below shows the major cycle highs/lows in this gold/silver stock Bull Market, but the very long term upcycle trendline is now flat rather than parabolic, or at least much flatter than it was, so the very long term upcycle trendline in that chart is now wrong.
  

• The report I received via e mail from Marketocracy for the week ending 5-20-05: "JFR - Joe F. Rocks's Mutual Fund, Net Asset Value (NAV): $8.10 on 5-20 vs $8.21 on 5-13, Compliant: Yes, This past week Return: -1.34%." HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) was up +2.23% last week for comparison, so JFR outperformed HUI in 8 of the past 18 weeks. HUI is a better yardstick than NEM or the XAU, since it usually outperforms NEM and the XAU (in upcycles). HUI was up about 70% each year in 2001, 2002, and 2003, so outperforming HUI is no easy task. My imaginary mutual fund JFR is down 19.00% since it's inception on 1-5-05.
  

• I update my gold/silver stock "Current Assessment" near the top of my home page (middle of the second bullet) regularly, so near critical times especially, you may want to check it out. Also, you can see how I use the indicators in concert with cycles just above the "Current Assessment." Fascinating!
  

• XAU Implied Volatility fell -3.04% to 29.140 on Friday 5-20 from 30.055 on 5-19 versus a -1.19% decline in the XAU on 5-20, which is a very sharp (3-6%) 4.23% rise in complacency (-3.04% + -1.19% = -4.23%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by 4.23%, therefore complacency rose by 4.23%) that portends weakness/a downtrend on Monday 5-23 (complacency is usually contrarian and therefore normally portends weakness, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That weakness/downtrend could follow a gap up at the open and early strength. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily up or down for that session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is another very important indicator that may disagree with XAU Implied Volatility. These indicators must be used in concert with cycle channels/trendlines (very long term, long term, intermediate term, and short term).

• The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at 0.78287 for the June expiration on 5-20 versus at 0.55895 for the May expiration on 5-19 versus at 1.13583 for the May expiration on 4-22 versus at 0.48700 for the final April expiration on 4-15 versus 1.04250 for the final March expiration on 3-18 versus 0.94130 for the final February expiration on 2-18. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.65704 for the final January expiration value as of 1-21. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.79348 for the final December expiration as of 12-17-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 1.03065 for the final November expiration value as of 11-19-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.85989 for the final October expiration value as of 10-15. If it rises 6% or less it portends strength following likely early weakness (indicated by XAU Implied Volatility). If it falls 6% or less it portends weakness. At unusually large greater than 6% moves the XAU Put/Call Ratio becomes non contrarian, so a greater than 6% rise portends weakness (unusually large rise in fear) and a greater than 6% decline portends strength (unusually large rise in complacency).
  

• A major indicator (NEM Lead Indicator) portending weakness this week (but all indicators and cycle channels/trendlines (most important consideration) must be considered collectively, not in isolation. Think "system.") is the fact that NEM underperformed the XAU last week by -1.87% (outperformed the XAU the prior week by +0.45%, underperformed the prior two weeks by -2.15% and -1.17%, outperformed the five prior weeks by +0.10%, +1.83%, +0.08%, +0.44% and +0.97%): -1.56% vs -1.19% on 5-20, -0.31% vs -0.62% on 5-19, +1.66% vs +2.06% on 5-18, +1.17% vs +2.31% on 5-17, -0.60% vs -0.33% on 5-16. NEM outperformed the XAU the week before last by +0.45%: -2.16% vs -1.67% on 5-13, -2.93% vs -3.64% on 5-12, -0.93% vs -0.96% on 5-11, -1.99% vs -2.08% on 5-10, +0.45% vs +0.34% on 5-9. NEM underperformed the XAU three weeks ago by -2.15%: -0.91% vs -0.25% on 5-6, -1.00% vs -0.46% on 5-5, +1.94% vs +2.02% on 5-4, +1.06% vs +1.10% on 5-3, -0.66% vs +0.17% on 5-2. NEM underperformed the XAU four weeks ago by -1.17%: +3.10% vs +1.68% on 4-29, -2.31% vs -1.70% on 4-28, -6.34% vs -4.02% on 4-27, -1.64% vs -1.73% on 4-26, +0.47% vs +0.22% on 4-25. NEM outperformed the XAU five weeks ago by +0.10%: -0.10% vs -0.69% on 4-22, -1.09% vs -1.09% on 4-21, -1.51% vs -0.91% on 4-20, +2.45% vs +3.14% on 4-19, +2.72% vs +1.92% on 4-18. NEM outperformed the XAU six weeks ago by +1.83%: -1.09% vs -0.91% on 4-15, -2.97% vs -3.27% on 4-14, -0.89% vs -1.99% on 4-13, -0.10% vs -0.47% on 4-12, -0.31% vs -0.55% on 4-11. NEM outperformed the XAU seven weeks ago by +0.08%: -0.57% vs -0.35% on 4-8, +0.14% vs -0.28% on 4-7, +0.93% vs +0.75% on 4-6, -0.12% vs +0.35% on 4-5, -1.48% vs -1.65% on 4-4. NEM outperformed the XAU eight weeks ago by +0.44%: +0.47% vs +0.30% on 4-1, -0.38% vs +0.54% on 3-31, +2.24% vs +1.43% on 3-30, -0.53% vs -0.72% on 3-29, -0.22% vs -0.41% on 3-28. NEM outperformed the XAU in the holiday shortened week nine weeks ago by +0.97%: -0.17% vs -1.01% on 3-24, -1.99% vs -1.94% on 3-23, -1.86% vs -2.06% on 3-22, -2.77% vs -2.75% on 3-21.         

• There's an early warning system in place! When NEM underperforms HUI/the XAU for a few months then the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04 will probably be in trouble, as was the case during the last few months of the prior long term upcycle that ended on December 2, 2003 (HUI/NEM)/January 6, 2004 (the XAU) (began on July 26, 2002). 
  

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Commercial Traders are short gold. They are clearly positioned for gold weakness with only 105,303 long futures and options contracts versus 194,816 short futures and options contracts (data as of 5-17-05).
  

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Speculators are correctly positioned for gold strength with 122,727 long futures and options contracts versus only 58,924 short futures and options contracts (data as of 5-17-05).

• The gold Commercial Traders added 860 (11,417, 9363 added the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 29,470 (17,544, 26,014 covered the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large decrease in their short position is the contrarian case short term for this normally non contrarian indicator. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts) and keep in mind that the data is as of 5-17-05, so the data is somewhat stale (for short term cycle trading) by the time it's analyzed, but is highly useful nonetheless, especially for intermediate term cycle trading (a few weeks/months).

• The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold a large 11,417 (19,091, 22,590 sold the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 13,922 (8331, 10,107 added the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large increase in their short position points to significant weakness (non contrarian case short term). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below). 

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Commercial Traders are short silver. They are clearly positioned for silver weakness with only 31,044 long futures and options contracts versus 75,814 short futures and options contracts as of 5-17-05.

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Speculators are correctly positioned for silver strength with 37,154 long futures and options contracts versus only 13,951 short futures and options contracts as of 5-17-05.

• The silver Commercial Traders sold 616 (507, 5858 added the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered 226 (covered an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 14,841 the week ending 5-3-05) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness (non contrarian indicator) this week. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).

• The silver Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 611 (sold 823 and an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 7580 in the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered a large 1239 (covered an unusually large 2750 and added an unusually large 13,999 the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Commercial Traders are now correctly positioned for US Dollar weakness with 4641 long futures and options contracts versus 18,503 short futures and options contracts as of 5-17-05. Last week they sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 2151 (616, 403, 1728, 2192, 4322, 3274 sold the six weeks ending 4-19-05) long futures and options contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 7151 (307, 2494 added the prior two weeks and 770, 2662, 2421, 1576 added the four weeks ending 4-12-05) short futures and options contracts which portends USD strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large decrease in their long position and increase in their short position points to strength (contrarian case short term), but the humongous short trade may point to weakness very soon as discussed previously. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts).
  

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Speculators are now incorrectly positioned for US Dollar strength with 15,145 long futures and options contracts versus 3551 short futures and options contracts as of 5-17-05. Last week they added an unusually large (> 10% increase in long contracts) 6453 (added 361 and an unusually large (> 10% increase in long contracts) 1515 in the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 1710 (662 and 22 added the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends USD strength this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large increase in their long position and the unusually large degree of short covering is the non contrarian case short term. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).
  

• Detailed analysis regarding the important long term upcycle buy signal and other important "big picture" information as well as information about my system/indicators can be found at this link.
  

• I've created a Joe F. Rocks imaginary mutual fund at Marketocracy that will trade gold/silver stocks and maybe also precious metals via Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) like GLD (new gold ETF) using my "Trade the Cycles" system. The Fund Manager name should say Joe Ferrazzano not  "joefrocks." I bought "en masse" on 1-5-05 and was more than 90% invested on that date. This will be a way of establishing an independently calculated track record. I'll track it's performance weekly in these updates, but the link above updates the fund share price/NAV the day after each session I believe.  

• The Joe F. Rocks fund at Marketocracy will provide a great independently tracked way of assessing "Trade the Cycles" as well as my trading ability and you can compare me to other market timers. I think I have a great shot at being very near the top of Marketocracy's rankings following this major correction, partly because of how great the gold/silver stock market is, but largely because of my "Trade the Cycles" system. Given how volatile gold/silver stocks are it would be easy to have a substandard rate of return relative to HUI and the XAU if one wasn't good at timing gold/silver stocks. I'll be doing mostly intermediate term cycle trading (cycles that last about 4-6 weeks from cycle low to the next cycle low) and some short term cycle trading. Once the long term cycle high occurs probably in about 6 to 12 months I'll be 35% in cash and will find low volatility stocks to park most of the rest of the fund. I have to be at least 65% invested, which ties my hands some, but I should still do very well. Margin and short selling aren't allowed by Marketocracy because they're following typical mutual fund guidelines. I could end up running a real mutual fund for them if I rank very high.
  

Joe F. Rocks!

====================== End of Update ==============================

The following analysis/commentary didn't change from 4-25's update -

There's some debate about wether the gold stock Bull has ended and deflation will occur or if inflation will increase substantially. Take a look at commodities, housing, healthcare costs, education costs, etc. and what do you see? It's not deflation. The US Dollar (USD) is merely having a countertrend rally and gold a countertrend decline that has a ways to go. The USD is in a very long term downcycle that began in mid 2001 which is INFLATIONARY. Case closed. Basically the US has a crappy economy and high inflation a la the 1970s which is great for precious metals just as it was in the 1970s.

The post bubble economic cycle has deflationary effects (such as in the stock market and the economy) that are being fought with massive stimulus and an extremely easy monetary policy at least as far as rock bottom short term rates are concerned.

The cycle based system I use has stood a great test and the long term downcycle remains in effect despite trendline "buy signals" suggesting otherwise (if one didn't use/understand cycles). The long term upcycle trendlines for HUI and the XAU that began in October 2002 for HUI and in July 2002 for the XAU broke down in January of this year and those indices are now heading (I strongly believe, similar to what occurred after the prior two long term upcycles broke down as shown in the chart below) for their very long term upcycle/Bull Market trendlines in the next few months.  The XAU should bottom in the 70-75 area as the chart below reveals.

As one can see in the chart below from 2-6-04 the XAU's long term downcycle remained in effect two long term cycles ago in 2001 despite the long term downcycle becoming less steep as has recently occurred in this long term downcycle. In the previous long term downcycle in 2002 the downcycle's trend was very steep/parabolic and a long term cycle low occurred less than two months after the long term cycle high.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio collapsed (fell by > 6%) on both Thursday 3-25 and Friday 3-26, correctly portending strength each day because it was an unusually large rise in complacency that portends strength. However, the collapse of the XAU Put/Call Ratio to 0.58064 on 4-8 for the April expiration from levels well above 1.00 a few months ago correctly portended weakness because the gold stock market became very complacent.

I originally thought that HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) was the most important index because it isn't affected nearly as much as the XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) is by mining firms that hedge (they've underperformed in this Bull market). Then I began to emphasize the XAU more because it had a higher correlation to reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM). About 25-30% of the XAU is determined by NEM because it's a market cap weighted index and NEM, with a market cap of nearly $20 Billion, is much larger than even the second largest firm in the XAU, Barrick (ABX), at nearly a $12 Billion market cap. Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) has a market cap below $1 Billion as of 3-19.

The problem with relying heavily on NEM and the XAU as I was doing is that a stock or a market cap weighted index with relatively few components like the XAU is much more likely than a non market cap weighted index like HUI of exhibiting anomalous/unusual behavior as NEM and the XAU have recently. Their long term downcycle trendlines were broken to the upside a few times, but a lack of sustained substantial followthrough meant those buy signals weren't confirmed.

Both NEM and the XAU's long term downcycle trendlines have become less parabolic/sharply declining in recent months with both long term and intermediate buy signals appearing to have occurred yet meaningful followthrough failed to occur and those major buy signals were NOT confirmed, which vindicated my assumption that a long term buy signal (break above the long term downcycle trendline and substantial followthrough) won't occur until after the XAU falls to it's Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline in the 70-75 area in the next few months.

NEM's anomalous/unusual behavior caused the XAU to exhibit similar behavior because of the huge influence NEM has on the market cap weighted XAU, but such behavior did NOT occur with HUI.

HUI's long term downcycle trendline has not been pushed up like the XAU and NEM's have been (see their charts below) because it's not a market cap weighted index. Hence, it's very important to watch HUI as closely as the XAU and NEM. That's a major lesson I learned.

Understanding cycles is by far the most important part of my system. The fact that the long term cycle has turned down is extremely important as is the fact that the intermediate term cycle turned down also. The long term cycle's downtrend will become more steep and the intermediate term cycle's downtrend will become more steep.

If the long term, intermediate term, and short term cycles are all heading down one should expect much less strength when the XAU Put/Call Ratio portends strength than if those cycles were all heading up. The XAU Put/Call Ratio jumped 5.44% on Friday 2-27 (1.17251 to 1.23624 for the March expiration), yet, from the intraday/very short term (hours/days) cycle low in negative territory to the short term cycle high the XAU rallied less than 1.50%. If the long term and intermediate term cycles had been heading up instead of down the XAU probably would have risen at least twice as much as it did on Friday 2-27.

One also must consider where gold stocks are in their cycles. The long term downcycle's weakness has increased significantly since beginning on 1-6-04 for the XAU and on 12-2-03 for HUI BUT it will get weaker.

The primary consideration in assessing gold stock timeliness (or any market's timeliness), even on a one session basis, is what the cycles are doing. Long term, intermediate term, and short term cycles MUST be considered and very short term (hours/days) cycles can occasionally be important. It can be difficult to differentiate between short term (days/weeks) and very short term (hours/days) cycles much of the time. You might not know until after the fact that a cycle was short term or very short term.

HUI, NEM, and the XAU as of 5-14-04

HUI, NEM, and the XAU as of 4-23-04

NEM (most important) and the XAU's Very Long Term Cycle as of 1-16-04

The date in the annotation below should be 10-10-02 (10-8-02 for NDX) not 11-10-02:

Silver stocks like CDE, HL, and PAAS may present good long opportunities since silver is more volatile than gold BUT since NEM, the XAU, and HUI are in long term downcycles risk has greatly increased. SSRI and SIL tend to be too thinly traded which is why I don't recommend trading them. PAAS can be too thinly traded also but recently PAAS has tended to have daily volume above one million shares. CDE is the most liquid and probably the best silver stock to trade because it usually has at least 2-3 million shares/day. One tends to get better and much faster executions for market orders (also limit orders may not get filled at the price you want and you may have to cancel and re enter an order with illiquid stocks) with a liquid stock than an illiquid stock.

Something very important to keep in mind is that gold stocks/gold have an inverse relationship/negative correlation with the US Dollar much more so than with the US major averages (though in the very long term the negative correlation may be about the same). Both HUI, the XAU, and the US major averages have enjoyed a huge run since mid March 2003. Obviously they haven't had a negative correlation since mid March 2003. However, the US Dollar (December 2003 contract) has fallen from nearly 100 in early September 2003 to nearly 89 on 12-5-03 for nearly an 11% decline for example.

Also, as I've discussed previously, NEM (Newmont Mining) is in the S & P 500 (SPX) so index mutual funds buy or sell NEM when SPX rises or falls, which accounts for the high correlation much of the time between gold stocks and the major averages (especially SPX of course).

The theory is that when the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) appears to fail it tells you something that's extremely important. It probably indicates that an intermediate term cycle high or low is imminent, that it will probably occur during that session or in the very near future. The intermediate term cycle is near or at it's maximum strength or weakness and is overriding the normally very reliable XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration).

Also, as one can see in the next chart the XAU (as of 11-28-03) was very near the top of it's long term cycle rising peaks trendline, so the long term cycle was near or at it's maximum strength which tended to override the normally very reliable XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration).

The point is when the XAU is overbought (RSI > 70) near an intermediate term cycle high or oversold (RSI < 30 but the ascending triangle formation limited the downside and RSI hasn't been falling below 30 at recent intermediate term cycle lows) near an intermediate term cycle low and the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) appears to fail it probably indicates that an intermediate term cycle high or low is imminent, which is obviously a very important piece of information.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) may be an even better indicator than I thought (which makes an amazingly accurate indicator even more so). If interpreted properly it may bat 1000 (100%) or very close to it. This is just a theory right now, but I believe it's a correct one until proven otherwise (because the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) is being overriden by the intermediate term cycle (and possibly also long term cycle in this case) being near or at it's maximum strength (or maximum weakness when it failed on 11-6 the day before 11-7's intermediate term cycle low)).

The XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) must be used in concert with cycles (from very short term (hours/days) to very long term (3-10+ years)) to be properly interpreted, so when cycles are bottoming or peaking they can make the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) "fail" but I think they are overriding it and that "failure" really is a very important indication that a cycle is bottoming or peaking. In fact, HUI and the XAU experienced intermediate term (months) cycle highs on Tuesday 12-2 at 258.60 and 112.75 respectively.

Assuming that gold began a very long term (3 to 10+ years) Bull Market in mid 2001 (about 7-8 months after the gold stocks), it was logical to assume that the prior eight year cycle high at about $418/ounce (in late 1995) would be exceeded as has already occurred.

The chart below (as of 11-28-03) shows the very long term (3 to 10+ years) cycle for the XAU which began in late October 2000. The very long term uptrendline implies that a long term cycle low will occur in the 70-75 range during the next few months. The annotation regarding the long term cycle high is old.

Keep in mind that the stocks usually lead the metal and that NEM (Newmont Mining) usually leads the stocks, so NEM is (appears to be) an extremely important indicator. Note that I do NO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE METAL HERE. I may decide it's necessary in the future of course (never stop learning and conditions may change).

More evidence that NEM is an excellent lead indicator for gold stocks:

Since Newmont Mining (NEM) influences the XAU to a much greater extent than it influences HUI because the XAU is market cap weighted, I've come to appreciate the XAU more recently since NEM seems to be a very good leading indicator (see the charts below and the one above) for gold stocks (and usually silver stocks), but more research is required. NEM's chart can be watched and used as a leading indicator (it appears). The second chart dated October 9 shows that NEM outperforming the XAU prior to the October 3 (a few cycles ago) intermediate term cycle low correctly portended strength.

I need to update how I'm using the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration). The comparison method with the percentage change in the XAU discussed below is ONLY used when the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) doesn't change the next day. In recent months it's been changing nearly every day.

I simply calculate (Simply divide the total put open interest by the total call open interest to arrive at the XAU Put/Call Ratio.) the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) just before the session begins and calculate the percentage change from the prior day (a rise to 1.05 from 1.00 for example is a very sharp (3-6%) 5% rise in fear that portends dramatic strength) to determine wether fear or complacency has crept in to the XAU.

I don't compare it to the change in the XAU until the end of the day in case it doesn't change the next day. If the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) rises 2% and the XAU falls by 1% that's a delta of +1% which is a significant rise in fear. A delta of -1% is a significant rise in complacency. This comparison method is only used when the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) remains unchanged the next session.

Also, there may be/probably is more merit in comparing the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) to the XAU's % change at the open when it doesn't change as opposed to comparing it to the prior day's change. Since in recent months it's changed nearly every day I don't have nearly enough data to know which method works better, but it makes more sense I think to compare an unchanged XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) to the open (or the early tone in case there is very brief weakness followed by strength or vice versa) rather than the prior session's change.

As discussed below an unusually large rise (> 6%) portends weakness (a relatively rare non contrarian case for this typically contrarian indicator) and an unusually large decline (> 6%) portends strength (a relatively rare non contrarian case for this typically contrarian indicator). Unusually large moves in contrarian indicators usually makes them non contrarian because usually "something's up" which causes the unusually large move in the indicator.

One must keep in mind that the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) MUST BE USED in concert with very short term and intermediate term cycles/trendlines. If one doesn't have the proper trendlines (with price targets based on them and sell signals acted on when uptrendlines break down or buy signals acted on when a trend change to an uptrend occurs) then the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) may appear to have failed when in fact it worked.

One should check the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) very early in the session to see if it's changed significantly and determine wether fear or complacency has crept into the XAU. Simply divide the total put open interest by the total call open interest to arrive at the XAU Put/Call Ratio. A % rise up to and including 6% (rise in fear) portends strength because the XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) is usually a contrarian indicator. A % rise > 6% is an unusually large rise in fear that portends weakness (non contrarian case for this usually contrarian indicator). A % decline up to and including 6% is a rise in complacency that portends weakness. A % decline > 6% is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends strength (non contrarian case for this usually contrarian indicator). The larger the % changes are the more the XAU tends to move that day.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio (for the nearest expiration) which "didn't work" (but really did in a sense) or didn't work well in a number of sessions recently (when it portended strength during the intermediate term downcycle from 1-6-04 to 1-15-04) provides insight into where gold stocks are in their cycles (short, intermediate, and long term). By not working or not working well (it normally works well about 90% of the time when properly used in concert with cycles/trendlines) during 3 or 4 recent sessions it was a major warning that the intermediate term cycle and possibly also the long term cycle had turned down. I'm goi