Joe F. Rocks!
Growth Stock Investor & Market Strategist

Joe F. Rocks! Trade the Cycles Updated 7-31-05

Growth Stock (NASDAQ) Timeliness - Monday - Untimely (Weakness/a downtrend, that could follow a gap up at the open, during "much" of Monday's session is a "hit!.")
                                                           - Very Short Term (2-3 Days) - Untimely (NDX/QQQ are in short term downcycles.)
                                                           - Short Term (1-3 Weeks) - Untimely (NDX short intermediate term upcycle is rolling over/flattening out.)

Brief Cycles Summary (Analysis/Commentary follows)

NASDAQ 100 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 4816.35.

NASDAQ 100 Long Term Cycle = Up since long term cycle low at 1301.93 on 8-13-04.

S & P 500 Very Long Term Downcycle/Secular Bear Market = Down since March 24, 2000 Bull Market peak/very long term cycle high at 1552.87.

S & P 500 Long Term Cycle = Up since 8-13-04 long term cycle low at 1060.72. SPX is working it's way up to the very long term downcycle trendline.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began October 25, 2000 at 41.61 Bear Market/very long term cycle low.

XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 76.79 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 113.41 on 1-6-04.

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market = Began on November 15, 2000 at 35.31 Bear Market/very long term cycle low. 

HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Long Term Cycle (heading up) = Began May 10, 2004 at 163.81 long term cycle low. Long term cycle high occurred at 258.60 on 12-2-03.

Please see Cycles Summary for the details of the cycles that are the basis for my market timing system.

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Analysis/Commentary -

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) opened slightly lower on Friday 7-29, and, COMPX trended lower most of the session, spent most of the session in negative territory, and closed significantly lower at 2184.83, -13.61 (-0.62%).

The long term downcycle trendlines for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and SPX (S & P 500) were broken during the week ending 11-5-04, so (unexciting because of the very long term downcycle since March 2000) long term cycle buy signals occurred. Long term cycle lows occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04 for NDX and at 1060.72 for SPX. NDX and SPX both remain in very long term downcycles since March 2000 (see SPX chart dated 11-16-04).

"Eerie Nikkei-SPX Parallels" (At Zeal) shows the high degree of correlation between the S & P 500's and NASDAQ's post bubble behavior and that of the Japanese stock market that experienced a bubble in 1989 and remains at much lower levels 15 years later.

As one can see in the NDX (NASDAQ 100) charts below, a long term (1 to 3 years) cycle high occurred on 1-20-04 at 1559.47 and a long term cycle low occurred at 1301.93 on 8-13-04. The collapse of the wall of worry from late November 2003 until late January 2004 and the dramatic trend change in NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow 93 weeks ago to negative/outflows correctly portended a trend change. Given last week's slightly negative NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow, some weakness is indicated this week, but cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration.

The very long term downcycle (3-10+ years in duration) which began in March 2000 probably has about 13 years to go. Paper assets (and hard assets in reverse fashion) tend to have very long term cycles that last about 35 years with about 17.5 years up (1982-2000) and 17.5 years down (2000-2018ish). There were very long term cycle highs (paper asset bubbles) in 1897, 1929, 1965ish, and in 2000 (about 35 years apart on average).

Risky NDX long term cycle buy signal because of the very long term downcycle since March 2000 and outflows nearly every week the past 93 weeks. A major intermediate term cycle buy signal is in effect for NDX (and SPX) and a short intermediate term upcycle is in place, but NDX's is rolling over/flattening out.

NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow (block trading data, 10,000+ share blocks) "portends" (this isn't a good one week look ahead indicator except when there's a well established multiweek trend and the intermediate term cycle agrees with it) mild weakness this week ending 8-5 (a short intermediate term upcycle is in place as of 7-29-05, which is the most important consideration) with 0.12% (27) more downtick blocks during the week ending 7-29. This primary fundamental indicator has reliably predicted the NASDAQ's direction, having turned positive in March 2003 after being negative for about three years following the March 2000 bubble peak/very long term cycle high. NASDAQ Institutional Money Flow turned negative again 93 weeks ago however and has generally been substantially negative, which resulted in a sharp decline until 8-13-04's long term cycle low.

Breadth, a primary fundamental indicator, was negative on Friday 7-29 with NASDAQ A/D at 8:7 in favor of declining issues and NASDAQ Up/Down Volume was in favor of down volume by more than 2:1.

The NASDAQ wall of worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index)) grew dramatically on Friday 7-29 with VXN revealing that an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV revealed that an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock). The NASDAQ is deemed Untimely on Monday. A short term downcycle was in place at Friday 7-29's close that may lead to weakness/a downtrend if it remains in place. Better than expected economic data may result in strength.

Williams %R for NDX is at -26.44 on 7-29-05 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). NDX is on a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (5% follow through after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline, see the first chart in the group above). NDX is in a short intermediate term upcycle. MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). RSI and Stochastics are on buy signals in or near overbought territory. The short intermediate term upcycle is rolling over/flattening out. A cycle high appears imminent.

An unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear occurred for the NASDAQ 100 on Friday with VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) rising +1.26 (+9.99%) to 13.87 while NDX (NASDAQ 100) fell -13.50 (-0.83%) to 1605.14 which reveals that an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear occurred for NDX because VXN rose dramatically while NDX fell significantly (NDX wall of worry rose  dramatically) which portends weakness in NDX on Monday, and, a short term downcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 7-29. 

An unusually large (> 6%) (-0.84% decline in QQQQ + +8.00% rise in QQV = +7.16% which is a 7.16% rise in fear) 7.16% rise in fear occurred for QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, -0.335 (-0.84%) to 39.575) on Friday since QQQQ fell significantly while QQV rose dramatically (QQQ Volatility Index, +0.97 (+8.00%) to 13.09) (QQQQ wall of worry grew dramatically) which portends weakness in QQQQ on Monday, and, a short term downcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 7-29. 

On Friday VIX (which is now calculated using the implied volatility of SPX (S & P 500) options instead of OEX (S & P 100) options) rose +1.05 (+9.98%) to 11.57 versus a decline in SPX of -9.54 (-0.77%) to 1234.18 which was an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear (wall of worry grew dramatically) for the S & P 500/value stocks (SPX is about 75% value stocks) since VIX rose much more than SPX fell (S & P 500) which portends weakness in SPX on Monday, and, a short term downcycle was in place at session's end on Friday 7-29. 

The S & P 500 (SPX) is deemed Untimely on Monday. A short term downcycle was in place at Friday 7-29's close which may lead to weakness/a downtrend on Monday if it remains in place. Better than expected economic data may result in some strength. MACD is on a buy signal (above it's moving average). Stochastics (overbought territory) and RSI are on buy signals. Williams %R for SPX is at -45.43 on 7-29-05 (below -80 (near the bottom) on my chart is the (look to) "buy" area (oversold) and above -20 is the look to "sell" area (overbought)). SPX is on a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (5% follow through after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline). SPX is in a short intermediate term upcycle since early July, so it may break down soon.

The CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio at a high (at or above 0.90 but below 1.05) level of 0.99 at Friday's close points to weakness on Monday (the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio at an extremely high 1.65 points to weakness/volatility) because it's a reliable non-contrarian indicator of the next session's early action except at extremely high (at or above 1.05) or extremely low levels (at or below 0.50) where it sometimes is also a contrarian indicator (sometimes portends early substantial strength (below 0.50) or a sharp rally following early potentially severe weakness (at or above 1.05), judgement is involved). Please keep in mind that cycle channels/trendlines are the most important consideration when timing any market.

The NASDAQ TRIN closed at a modestly bearish level of NA (modestly more activity in xxxxing issues) on Friday which is xxxxtive technically. A level between 0.35 and 0.80 is a bullish range for the NASDAQ TRIN because it indicates much more activity in rising issues. A NASDAQ TRIN above 1.00 indicates more activity in declining issues. A NASDAQ TRIN between 1.20 and 1.50 is a clearly bearish "red zone" range because it indicates much more activity in declining issues but not a very oversold condition. If the NASDAQ TRIN rises above 1.50 (oversold condition) you can begin to look for a rally and if it rises above 2.00 that tends to be a reliable short term buy signal (very oversold condition).

Looking at NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Chicago Mercantile Exchange Commitments of Traders - Futures Only (Reportable Positions as of July 26, 2005), the Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 518 long futures contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short position) 1513 short futures contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large degree of short selling makes them short term non contrarian, whereas the Commercial Traders added 781 long futures contracts and added 749 short futures contracts which portends modest strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but the addition of 749 short futures contracts points to some significant weakness. NDX COT (do an edit then find "nasdaq" in Internet Explorer or Netscape to find it because it's near the bottom)

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) % Bullish (AAII has been a useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator at very low levels below 40% bullish and very high levels above 60% bullish.) @ 57.5% bullish last week from 41.2% the prior week is a neutral factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 8-5-05 because it's at a mid range level of bullishness (between 40-60%). The change in or delta AAII % bullish is also a useful short term/weekly look ahead indicator in addition to the absolute value of AAII % bullish. The very sharp rise last week is a positive factor for the prospects of stocks during the week ending 8-5-05 because it's a very sharp rise in complacency for this useful non-contrarian sentiment indicator contrarian. For now I'm using delta AAII % Bullish as a non contrarian indicator and I haven't determined exactly what significant changes are versus sharp or very sharp, etc. Since it appears to be strictly non contrarian (so far), I don't have to determine what an unusually large change is where the indicator becomes contrarian. The absolute value does become contrarian at extremely low (0-30% bullish) or extremely high (70-100% bullish) values, at least from an intermediate term cycle standpoint (a few weeks/months).

Gold & Silver Stocks - The NEM Lead Indicator Remained Bullish Last Week

• The spike move following July 19's minor intermediate term cycle lows (HUI, NEM, XAU) corrected last week as expected. HUI, NEM, and the XAU were very flat most of last week following an early plunge. They're trying to establish short term cycle lows from which a substantial rally should occur.
  

• Last week made sense cycle wise because cycles tend to begin relatively flat. Since HUI, NEM, and the XAU put in one to two month cycle lows on July 19 (see 3 month charts below), it was reasonable to expect that, following the very sharp rally two weeks ago, they would correct and are in the process of putting in short term cycle lows not far above July 19's minor intermediate term cycle lows, such that the uptrend since July 19 is relatively flat.
  

• The NEM Lead Indicator remained bullish last week, with NEM outperforming the XAU by +0.26% after outperforming the XAU by +0.81% the prior week. NEM, after dramatically underperforming the XAU for a few months (see last chart in the first group below), began to outperform the XAU on July 14. Based on two years of watching the NEM Lead Indicator it's very unlikely that a major rally will occur without being preceded by at least a few weeks in which NEM significantly outperformed the XAU. NEM outperformed the XAU for 5 weeks prior to May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows for example by +0.10%, +1.83%, +0.08%, +0.44%, and +0.97%. The fact that NEM has significantly outperformed the XAU for over 2 weeks is a good sign and is basically a prerequisite for a major rally.
  

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU did a lot of gap filling last week. NEM appeared to be in the process of filling it's downside gap at 37.40 (created at July 27's open) on Friday July 29, so early weakness may occur on Monday August 1. Most of the time if it appears reasonable that a gap will be filled, then it probably will get filled. You should be aware of gaps when making buy/sell decisions. The XAU has an upside gap above 100 created in March.

• The Gold and Silver COT (Commitments of Traders) data was bullish again last week on an intermediate term cycle basis (weeks/months), despite the fact that the gold Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 14,585 long futures and options contracts (data as of 7-26-05) after adding an unusually large (> 10% increase in long contracts) 10,066, 10,022 and a respectable 4733 long futures and options contracts the prior three weeks, because the unusually large degree of long liquidation makes them short term contrarian and the fact that they engaged in a large degree of short covering again last week points to strength. The fact that they traded aggressively long during the three weeks prior to last week is a great sign. The massive short covering continued last week, covering a large 13,163 short futures and options contracts after covering a large 16,960, a large 19,554, and an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 26,665 short futures and options contracts the prior three weeks. The gold Commercial Traders were at a net short extreme in early December 2004 (link shows futures totals only) when gold hit a major intermediate term cycle high and are now the least net short (or nearly so) they've been the past year. Silver is a bullish situation also. The silver Commercial Traders sold a large 3715 long futures and options contracts (data as of 7-26-05) and covered a large 4687 short futures and options contracts, which points to strength because they traded net long by 972 futures and options contracts. However, the fact that they sold a large 3715 long futures and options contracts points to some weakness. The silver COT data was also bullish the five weeks prior to last week.

• NEM experienced a sharp (2-2.99%) volatility spike on Friday July 29, falling -2.37% from a session high 38.43 to a session low 37.52, which portends strength following a short term cycle low that appears likely early this week or may have occurred on Friday July 29. High volatility has a high correlation with fear and low volatility has a high correlation with complacency. Therefore, NEM's sharp volatility spike on Friday July 29 portends strength following a short term cycle low.
  

• There was big buying on upticks (accumulation) at session's end for NEM. ASK Research's intraday chart showed 3 green uptick volume bars in the 100-200 thousand share range in the last hour. Between the strong accumulation and the sharp volatility spike NEM is likely to rally early on Monday August 1, but it's likely to fill it's downside gap at 37.40 as previously discussed.
  

• Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), the two largest components of HUI and the XAU, had reasonably good earnings reports last week.
  

• The major intermediate term upcycle trendlines since May 16, 2005 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (see 3 month charts below, gold since early February, see it's 1 year chart) should become more parabolic/sharply rising over time, as cycles almost always do, and given that this should be the sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle (began on 5-10-04), dramatic gains should occur. HUI, NEM, and the XAU should approximately double from their major intermediate term cycle lows on 5-16-05 to their long term cycle highs as discussed in previous updates. This major intermediate term upcycle should last about twice as long as last year's (6 months from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04) and see about twice the gains (100% or so versus HUI's 51.50% from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04). Note in HUI's 5 year chart dated 6-29-05 (first chart below) that the long term cycles are getting longer. The previous long term upcycle's parabolic phase lasted about 9 months, so it's reasonable to assume that this one will last about one year (until May 2006).
  

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU should be in a minor intermediate term upcycle (from July 19) for about one month or more, in similar fashion to the one from May 16 until mid June/early July. HUI's previous one lasted nearly two months while NEM and the NEM dominated XAU's previous one was a few weeks shorter.
  

• As discussed in previous updates major intermediate term cycle buy signals occurred in late May/early June for gold/silver stocks (see HUI chart dated 6-3-05) and gold's major intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred a few weeks later in June (see 1 year chart below), strongly suggesting that the good times are back, as does the fact that gold/silver stocks have been in an uptrend/long term upcycle for well over a year (since May 10, 2004) and gold has been in an uptrend for nearly six months (since early February).
  

• Williams %R is above oversold territory (at or below -80 is oversold) for HUI (-66.20)/NEM (-60.50)/XAU (-71.20) on 7-29-05 (see 3 month charts). If it hits an oversold level near -80 that's a reliable indication to look to buy, which doesn't mean you mechanically buy, but that you probably will buy very soon or you may start buying (in 2 or 3 stages). The converse is of course true for overbought levels at or above -20, but the most important consideration by far is cycle channels/trendlines. Indicators and timing tools are used for finetuning buy/sell decisions after cycle trendline buy/sell signals suggest it's time to buy/sell (see charts below, most of you should probably be holding until a long term cycle sell signal occurs in 6 to 12 months).
  

• The remainder of the charts can be found at the bottom. The very long term upcycle trendlines are now relatively flat rather than parabolic (with a segment having turned up), but the major buy/sell signals shown still apply.
  

• Gold hit a 2% follow through buy signal last week (see one year chart above), indicating that a minor intermediate term cycle low occurred near $418. The major intermediate term upcycle since early February may have turned up/increased in strength, but I'll leave the trendline as is for now. It's wise to wait for an increase in strength/more sharply rising segment to become reasonably well established before assuming it exists. The more points that fall on a trendline the more likely it is to be useful/valid and the stronger the support or resistance it represents.
  

• There's been a one monthish summer correction every year the past 5 years. Statistically, when something happens 5 consecutive times it's worth noting, because there's only a 3.125% chance that it was due to pure luck (50% raised to the fifth power). In Summer 2004 there actually were two corrections lasting a few weeks each. The XAU didn't exceed it's late May 2004 high until late August 2004, so the two minor corrections were the equivalent of the major Summer correction. In 2003, even though HUI, NEM, and the XAU were in the midst of the nine month parabolic phase of the previous long term upcycle, they corrected for about a month. The XAU fell from 82.69 on June 19, 2003 to 73.41 on July 16, 2003 which was an -11.22% decline in 4 weeks. In 2005 the XAU fell from 95.10 on June 30 to 89.03 on July 19, 2005 which was a modest -6.38% decline, but it did last nearly 3 weeks and NEM fell from 40.34 on June 23, 2005 to 36.55 on July 19, 2005 which was a -9.40% decline in 4 weeks.
  

• It's obviously the time factor that's important in addition to the magnitude of the Summer corrections. Minor 5-10% corrections lasting about one week happen nearly every month, so being aware of when major corrections are likely is helpful. A major factor behind Summer corrections may be that investors and traders simply took profits prior to going on vacation, and, when they're on vacation, there's less buying power in the market. If long term cycle highs do occur in May 2006 or thereabouts, then the Summer correction will be a no brainer next Summer, because a 3 to 6 month correction (maybe more) should ensue following long term cycle highs. The long term cycles are getting longer, so this parabolic phase should last about one year (until May 2006) versus 9 months for the previous long term upcycle's parabolic phase. The corrections will obviously tend to be longer also.

• Many of the bullets that follow haven't changed from last week because this is a system ("Trade the Cycles") and because some are reading this for the first time. Some bullets are needed for reference purposes or to revisit important developments in the precious metals sector.
  

• Notice in the XAU's very long term upcycle chart dated 7-12-05 above that the XAU hit it's Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline on May 16, 2005, which was a major intermediate term cycle low, and adds even more confidence to the bullish case, as does the fact that HUI, NEM, and the XAU all have uptrends (that my system calls long term upcycles) since May 10, 2004.

• The most important gold/silver stock timing consideration now is that the long term upcycle that began on May 10, 2004 for HUI, NEM ,and the XAU increased in strength after May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows. That is, the long term upcycle's rising bottoms trendline turned up after May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows (see 3 month charts above).
  

• There's been an uptrend/long term upcycle since May 10, 2004 according to/strongly suggested by backtesting. That HUI, NEM, and the XAU have rising bottoms uptrends since May 10, 2004 is a fact, the only question is will they experience sustained parabolic upcycles now in which dramatic gains will occur (the parabolic/sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle, see top chart above), as happened in the prior three long term upcycles of this gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000. No one can say that May 10, 2004's cycle lows definitely are long term cycle lows, but, that it's very likely they are based upon backtesting (see top chart above), the nature of cycles, and the many confidence factors discussed in previous updates and in this update (the XAU hit it's Bull Market trendline on May 16, 2005, see chart dated 7-12-05 above). The previous long term cycles worked the same way and a very long term upcycle is in effect since late 2000 (see top chart above and XAU chart dated 7-12-05 above).

• FREE COT (Commitments of Traders) Charts (see link) reveal that the Commercial Traders generally know what they're doing and the Speculators don't. The Commercial Traders tend to be near net short extremes near major tops and near net long extremes near major bottoms, thus making them non contrarian indicators most of the time. The Speculators tend to do just the opposite and are contrarian indicators most of the time.
  

• You'll see a fair number of people (who don't understand cycles) say that there's been a gold/silver stock correction since December 2003/January 2004, when long term cycle highs occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU. As the top chart above reveals that's not true because the long term downcycle's parabolic shaped trendline bottomed on May 10, 2004. The trendlines are roundish/parabolic (see the previous cycles in the first chart above for confirmation and note that for shorter cycle timeframes trendlines are roundish, becoming increasingly sharply rising in upcycles or sharply declining in downcycles).
  

• The very flat early segment of the long term upcycle from May 10, 2004 until May 16, 2005 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU was basically the first half of the long term upcycle (see first chart above, the HUI 5 year chart dated 6-29-05). Since it lasted about 1 year it's reasonable to expect the parabolic/sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle (began on May 16, 2005) to last about 1 year. The fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively longer and substantially so (see HUI 5 year chart dated 5-12-05 above) also suggests that this sharply rising segment will last about 1 year, which means that long term cycle highs may not occur until May 2006. The parabolic/sharply rising segment of the previous long term upcycle lasted about 9 months, from March 2003 until the December 2, 2003 (HUI/NEM)/January 6, 2004 (XAU) long term cycle highs. My target range for the long term cycle high is 330-350 for HUI.
  

• Gold put in a major bottom near $410 in early February, so it led the stocks pricewise but didn't flash a major buy signal until June (see 1 year chart below), a few weeks after HUI, NEM, and the XAU did (see HUI chart dated 6-3-05). So, "major cycle effect wise" gold still lagged gold stocks even though pricewise it bottomed earlier, which is the first time I've seen gold lead gold stocks pricewise. Gold stocks still led gold in that they flashed a major intermediate term cycle buy signal a few weeks before gold did.
  

• Since most traders should be trading major intermediate term upcycles (downcycles for short sellers) that last about 6 to 12 months (one began 5-16-05 and probably will last about 1 year as discussed previously), the holding period should be fairly long and the degree of trading activity very low for most investors/traders (Previous major intermediate term upcycle from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04 in which HUI rose 51.50%). If you want to short term trade start with a modest amount of capital relative to your total and see how you do. The bottom line is that most investors/traders shouldn't be sweating near term swings now since the major intermediate term cycle buy signal that occurred in late May/early June (see HUI chart dated June 3) strongly suggests that May 16, 2005's cycle lows were major cycle lows as discussed in previous updates.
  

• The dramatic decline scenario typically portended by NEM's severe underperformance versus the XAU in recent months (see last chart in the group above) will probably be avoided. At any cycle phase other than the sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle NEM's recent dramatic underperformance versus the XAU would portend a dramatic 20% or more decline. A period of NEM outperformance is probably needed now in order for gold/silver stocks to enjoy a major rally. NEM began to outperform the XAU on July 14.
  

• The USD may have finally put in a major intermediate term cycle high, because it's parabolic uptrendline appears to have broken down (see 1 year chart above). A 5% follow through sell signal is required to confirm that's the case. The dramatic spike also suggests that a major cycle high may have occurred.

• If you're trading cycles you should sell whenever a parabolic trendline breaks down (trade parabolas basically, see the first chart above or the 3 month charts, that have an ever increasing rate of ascent for upcycles or an ever increasing rate of descent for downcycles, use 2% follow through for minor buy/sell signals and 5% plus the NEM Lead Indicator for major buy/sell signals as previously discussed).
  

• Most of you should not be trading minor intermediate term cycles, but should be holding for the next approximately 6 to 9 months (the HUI 5 year charts dated 6-29-05 and 5-12-05 above shows that the long term cycles are getting longer), during which dramatic gains should occur for HUI, NEM, and the XAU because this is, according to the nature of cycles, the parabolic/sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle that began on May 10, 2004. HUI, NEM, and the XAU were very flat during the early phase of their long term upcycles, which isn't too surprising since cycles tend to begin relatively flat and become increasingly parabolic/sharply rising over time.
  

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Commercial Traders are now correctly positioned for US Dollar weakness (massively short) with 6378 long futures and options contracts versus 22,315 short futures and options contracts as of 7-26-05. A few months ago they were substantially net long, so they've dramatically repositioned themselves for a major decline in the US Dollar, which is great news for precious metals in US Dollar terms. The USD's major intermediate term upcycle since late December 2004 appears to have broken down recently as previously discussed. Please see the 1 year USD chart above. When dramatic spike moves break down they tend to fall hard and fast. The more dramatic the spike move the more dramatic the breakdown tends to be. The NASDAQ Composite's (COMPX) dramatic decline to the 1100 area (long term cycle low) in October 2002 after experiencing a very long term cycle high above 5000 in March 2000 is a great example of what happens after dramatic spike moves. COMPX fell about 77% following it's very long term cycle high above 5000 in March 2000.

• The XAU 2 year chart dated 5-16-05 above shows the Elliot Wavesque 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 cycle structure of the major intermediate term upcycle from 5-10-04 until 11-17-04 as well as the A, B, C correction from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05. The fact that there are predictable cyclical patterns for gold/silver stocks and most if not all markets is well established. The major caveat being that one must know what the longer cycles are doing in order to time shorter cycle timeframes. The predictability of the long term cycles uptrend obviously comes from the very long term upcycle since late 2000 and knowing that very long term upcycles (and downcycles) tend to last about 17.2 years. Gold's very long term downcycle lasted 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001.
  

• Cycles are the most important consideration when timing any market. There's been a major intermediate term upcycle since May 16, 2005 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (the HUI chart dated 6-3-05 shows the 5% follow through major buy signal requirement being satisfied, which is one of two major buy signal requirements), a long term upcycle since May 10, 2004 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (see first chart above, the HUI 5 year chart dated 6-29-05), and a very long term upcycle since late 2000 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (see HUI 5 year chart dated 6-29-05 (top chart above) and XAU 5 year chart dated 7-12-05).
  

• "Trade the Cycles" indicates that HUI, NEM, and the XAU are now on a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (see HUI chart dated 6-3-05). Gold/silver stocks are in a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market since October/November 2000 (see 5 year XAU chart above dated 7-12-05 and the HUI 5 year chart dated 6-29-05) and are in a long term upcycle since May 10, 2004 (see first chart above, the HUI 5 year chart dated 6-29-05). Gold began a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market in April 2001 and silver did so in late 2001.

• Gold hit a major intermediate term cycle buy signal (see 1 year chart above) in June because it followed through by more than 5% after breaking it's intermediate term downcycle trendline in place since early December 2004. This major buy signal lagged gold stocks' major buy signal by a few weeks, but this is the first time that I've seen gold hit a major bottom (early February 2005) well before gold stocks did (May 16, 2005) in this very long term upcycle since late 2000 for gold/silver stocks and since April 2001 for gold (late 2001 for silver), which is probably a major positive. Gold usually lags gold stocks at major cycle highs/lows. Gold peaked in early December 2004 versus HUI, NEM, and the XAU doing so on 11-17-04 and gold peaked in early April 2004 versus HUI and NEM doing so on 12-2-03 and the XAU doing so on 1-6-04 (long term cycle highs).
  

• Most of you will do much better holding for the next 6 to 9 months as opposed to actively trading, at which time long term cycle highs should occur for HUI, NEM, and the XAU that may be about double the level of the major lows on 5-16-05. HUI may rise on the order of 100% to about 330 in the next 6-9 months assuming a long term upcycle is in effect. NEM may rise to the 70-75 area in the next 6-9 months in that case. The XAU may rise to about 150 in the next 6-9 months in that case.

• HUI, NEM, and the XAU followed through by more than 5% after breaking their intermediate term downcycle trendlines in place since 11-17-04 (see HUI chart dated 6-3-05). Therefore, major buy signal requirement number two has been satisfied, with requirement one, a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator, being satisified by the recent five week stretch in which NEM significantly outperformed the XAU. The two major buy signal requirements would have weeded out all six previous important cycle lows in the major correction from being major cycle low candidates, and, there's only a 1.56% chance that result was due to pure luck (50% raised to the sixth power).
  

• Major intermediate term cycle lows probably occurred for HUI, NEM, and the XAU on 5-16-05 at 165.71 for HUI, at 34.90 for NEM, and at 78.23 for the XAU, that were above their long term cycle lows that occurred at 163.81 for HUI, at 34.70 for NEM, and at 76.79 for the XAU on 5-10-04.
  

• Additional confidence factors that point to May 16 being a major bottom include the fact that the gold Commercial Traders added aggressively to their long position for a few weeks following the major bottom in addition to engaging in massive short covering, the USD Commercial Traders are now massively short, reliable lead indicator NEM rallied on well above average volume, the XAU Put/Call Ratio (June expiration) remained steady near 0.80 despite a substantial rally which indicated that many doubted the low was in, XAU Implied Volatility spiked dramatically near the May 16, 2005 major intermediate term cycle low (rose to 32 area from below 25 in early April 2005) in similar fashion to what occurred near the May 10, 2004 long term cycle low and didn't occur at other times (rose to 42.50 area from 30.50 area in early April 2004), and an Elliot Wavesque A, B, C correction pattern culminated on May 16, 2005.
  

• Looking at the first chart above, the 5 year HUI chart showing the 6 long term cycle 5% follow through buy/sell signals in the gold/silver stock very long term upcycle, one sees that the previous 5 long term cycle buy/sell signals correctly indicated that the long term cycle high or low was in. The probability that coincidence/pure luck led to that outcome is only 3.125% which is 50% raised to the fifth power. Assuming that last year's long term cycle buy signal correctly indicated that May 10, 2004 was a long term cycle low, which appears very likely, then the long term cycle buy/sell signals will only have a 1.56% chance of being ineffective in the future (50% raised to the sixth power), assuming that a very long term upcycle remains in effect. I can provide countless examples for shorter cycle timeframes where the parabolic trendline buy/sell signals worked every time. The caveat is that one must know what the longer cycles are doing (where their trendlines are) or you might use the wrong trendline and get an erroneous buy/sell signal.
  

• The Commercial Traders (typically) correctly begin to take substantial profits as a cycle rolls over/weakens (following cycle parabolic trendline sell signals) while the Speculators tend to overshoot when making the various trading decisions (buying, selling, shorting, short covering).
  

• A new indicator is Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM). Money flow is a primary fundamental indicator. Notice how NEM CMF turning negative tends to correspond closely with the beginning of sharp downcycles. Please see the 3 month NEM chart above dated 7-29-05. NEM's CMF closed at -0.47 on 7-29-05. Given that a CMF level of -0.25 for NEM reflects strongly negative CMF, then -0.47 is extremely negative CMF.
  

• The prior two long term cycles in this gold/silver stock Bull Market (since late 2000) had lower major (intermediate term cycle) highs after long term cycle highs that were followed shortly thereafter by the parabolic/sharply rising segment of the long term upcycle (the long term cycles have been getting longer, see the HUI 5 year charts). The trend of longer long term cycles means that major corrections will tend to be longer also.
  

• The negative correlation between gold and the USD is not as high as the correlation coefficient makes it seem, since it's the square root of the strength of the correlation. It's -59% on 7-29 (-59% on 7-22) for the past 180 trading days for gold, according to Moore Research Center, Inc. For silver the negative correlation coefficient with the USD is -12% on 7-29 (-11% on 7-22) for the past 180 trading days. Silver's correlation is much more positive than gold's because it's more of an industrial metal than gold is, hence it has a more positive correlation with US economic strength and a strong US Dollar. 

• The positive correlation coefficient between gold and the S & P 500 is -5% for the past 180 trading days (negative correlation coefficient with silver is 0%), according to Moore Research Center, Inc. This means that the S & P 500 determines 0.25% of gold's price action/variability (Coefficient of Determination = 5% squared = 0.25%). The S & P 500's sharp decline from early March until late April is a major reason why gold and gold stocks were weak during that stretch (positive correlation coefficient between gold and the S & P 500 for the past 180 trading days was at 60% 11 weeks ago). The next bullet discusses the Coefficient of Determination.
  

• The Coefficient of Determination is the square of the correlation coefficient (the true strength of the correlation is determined by squaring the correlation coefficient) and explains how much the USD is determining gold's and silver's price action/variability or the S & P 500 is determining gold's or silver's price action/variability. The US Dollar determines 34.81% (-59% times -59% = 34.81%) of gold's price action/variability now since the USD's negative correlation coefficient with gold is -59% as of 7-29-05. The USD determines only 1.44% of silver's price action/variability since the USD's negative correlation coefficient with silver is -12% as of 7-29-05. The correlation coefficient, r, provides the direction of the correlation (+ or  -) but only the square root of the strength of the correlation. The coefficient of determination, r², provides the true strength of the correlation but without indicating its direction. Both of them must be used to fully understand the entire picture regarding correlation's effect.

• The Gold:XAU Ratio (currently at 4.73) may become a third major buy signal criterion, along with 5% follow through and a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator. Per Myles Zyblock, Chief North American Institutional Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, when it's above 5.0 (12% of the time the past 22 years) the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been +38.4% and in only one instance was there a loss. When it's below 3.0 (5% of the time the past 22 years) the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been -24.3% with no instances of an up year. As a stand alone indicator, at least for trading purposes, the Gold:XAU Ratio probably isn't highly useful because obviously both gold and the XAU can fall 10% or more in tandem after reaching 5.0 or rise 10%+ after reaching 3.0. However, I need to research/backtest this. 5.25 or even 5.50 might be a better criterion.
  

• The report I received via e mail from Marketocracy for the week ending 7-29-05: "JFR - Joe F. Rocks's Mutual Fund, Net Asset Value (NAV): $9.54 on 7-29 vs $9.75 on 7-22, Compliant: Yes, This past week Return: -2.13%." HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) was down -2.55% last week for comparison, so JFR outperformed HUI in 14 of the past 28 weeks. HUI is a better yardstick than NEM or the XAU, since it usually outperforms NEM and the XAU (in upcycles). HUI was up about 70% each year in 2001, 2002, and 2003, so outperforming HUI is no easy task. My imaginary mutual fund JFR is down 4.60% since it's inception on 1-5-05.
  

• I update my gold/silver stock "Current Assessment" near the top of my home page (middle of the second bullet) regularly, so near critical times especially, you may want to check it out. Also, you can see how I use the indicators in concert with cycles just above the "Current Assessment." Fascinating!
  

• XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.88% to 25.440 on Friday 7-29 from 25.665 on 7-28 versus a -0.23% decline in the XAU on 7-29, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) 1.11% rise in complacency (-0.88% + -0.23% = -1.11%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.11%, therefore complacency rose by 1.11%) that portends weakness/a downtrend on Monday 8-1 (complacency is usually contrarian and therefore normally portends weakness, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That weakness/downtrend could follow a gap up at the open and early strength. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily up or down for that session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is another very important indicator that may disagree with XAU Implied Volatility. These indicators must be used in concert with cycle channels/trendlines (very long term, long term, intermediate term, and short term).

• The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at 0.77570 for the August expiration on 7-29 versus at 0.81231 for the August expiration on 7-22 versus at 0.85459 for the July expiration on 7-8 versus at 0.81863 for the July expiration on 7-1 versus at 0.91027 for the July expiration on 6-24 versus at 0.76954 for the June expiration on 6-17 versus at 0.87064 for the June expiration on 6-10 versus at 0.80155 for the June expiration on 6-3 versus at 0.55895 (May expiration) on 5-19 versus at 1.13583 (May expiration) on 4-22 versus at 0.48700 for the final April expiration on 4-15 versus 1.04250 for the final March expiration on 3-18 versus 0.94130 for the final February expiration on 2-18. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.65704 for the final January expiration value as of 1-21. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.79348 for the final December expiration as of 12-17-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 1.03065 for the final November expiration value as of 11-19-04. The XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 0.85989 for the final October expiration value as of 10-15. If it rises 6% or less it portends strength following likely early weakness (indicated by XAU Implied Volatility). If it falls 6% or less it portends weakness. At unusually large greater than 6% moves the XAU Put/Call Ratio becomes non contrarian, so a greater than 6% rise portends weakness (unusually large rise in fear) and a greater than 6% decline portends strength (unusually large rise in complacency).
  

• A major indicator (NEM Lead Indicator) portending strength this week (but all indicators and cycle channels/trendlines (most important consideration) must be considered collectively, not in isolation. Think "system.") is the fact that NEM outperformed the XAU last week by +0.26% (+0.81%, -0.91%, -1.00%, -2.86%, -0.38%, +0.09%, -0.39%, -0.72%, -0.69%, -1.87%, +0.45%, -2.15%, -1.17%, +0.10%, +1.83%, +0.08%, +0.44%, and +0.97% the prior 18 weeks): -1.05% vs -0.23% on 7-29, +0.21% vs -0.18% on 7-28, +1.15% vs +0.39% on 7-27, -1.42% vs -1.46% on 7-26, -1.28% vs -1.16% on 7-25.        

• There's an early warning system in place! When NEM underperforms HUI/the XAU for a few months then the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04 will probably be in trouble, as was the case during the last few months of the prior long term upcycle that ended on December 2, 2003 (HUI/NEM)/January 6, 2004 (the XAU) (began on July 26, 2002). 
  

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Commercial Traders are short gold. They are clearly positioned for gold weakness with only 80,207 long futures and options contracts versus 172,186 short futures and options contracts (data as of 7-26-05).
  

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) gold Speculators are correctly positioned for gold strength with 112,823 long futures and options contracts versus only 57,339 short futures and options contracts (data as of 7-26-05).

• The gold Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 14,585 long futures and options contracts (added 10,066, 10,022, 4733 the prior three weeks) and covered a large 13,163 short futures and options contracts (covered 16,960, 19,554, 26,665 the prior three weeks) which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large degree of long liquidation is the contrarian case short term, and the large degree of short covering also points to strength. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above) and keep in mind that the data is as of 7-26-05, so the data is somewhat stale (for short term cycle trading) by the time it's analyzed, but is highly useful nonetheless, especially for intermediate term cycle trading (a few weeks/months).

• The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 3899 long futures and options contracts (sold 7935, 23,682, 36,820 the prior three weeks) and covered 2223 short futures and options contracts (added 12,036, 8147 the prior two weeks) which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), because they traded net short by 1676 futures and options contracts. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above). 

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Commercial Traders are short silver. They are clearly positioned for silver weakness with only 37,981 long futures and options contracts versus 81,704 short futures and options contracts as of 7-26-05.

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) silver Speculators are correctly positioned for silver strength with 41,100 long futures and options contracts versus only 19,328 short futures and options contracts as of 7-26-05.

• The silver Commercial Traders sold a large 3715 long futures and options contracts (added 1492, 1927, 8586 the prior three weeks) and covered a large 4687 short futures and options contracts (added 549 the prior week, covered 1244, 13,971, 3899, 475 the prior four weeks) which portends strength (non contrarian indicator) this week, because they traded net long by 972 futures and options contracts. The sale of a large 3715 long futures and options contracts points to some significant weakness however. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines.

• The silver Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold a large 2836 long futures and options contracts (added 1889 the prior week, sold 1245, 10,966, 3328, 2231, 5182 the prior five weeks) and covered an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 2765 short futures and options contracts (added 2848, 557, 12,064, 951, 43 the prior five weeks) which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large degree of short covering is the non contrarian case short term. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines.

• The reliable non contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Commercial Traders are now correctly positioned for US Dollar weakness (massively short) with 6378 long futures and options contracts versus 22,315 short futures and options contracts as of 7-26-05. Last week they sold 11 long futures and options contracts (added 1688, 277, 232, 60, 752 the prior five weeks) and covered a large 1315 short futures and options contracts (added 687 the prior week, covered 3966 the prior week) which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above).
  

• The notoriously contrarian (in terms of their trading activity) USD Speculators are now incorrectly positioned for US Dollar strength (massively long) with 16,582 long futures and options contracts versus 1792 short futures and options contracts as of 7-26-05. Last week they sold a large 1041 long futures and options contracts (added 623 the prior week, sold 6568 the prior week, added 1987, 2655 the prior two weeks) and added 21 short futures and options contracts (added 376 the prior week, covered 1290 the prior week) which portends USD strength this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see chart above).
  

• Detailed analysis regarding the important long term upcycle buy signal and other important "big picture" information as well as information about my system/indicators can be found at this link.
  

• My system/work is NOT about me making educated guesses and calling bottoms, even though I (mistakenly) did that in the major correction from 11-17-04 until 5-16-05 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, partly for reasons such as HUI having, until recently (early April), a well developed trendline since 5-10-04's long term cycle low that appeared to be it's long term upcycle trendline. The reason why I'm developing a backtested system ("Trade the Cycles") is because it's impossible to consistently time the market (by educated guessing) using an unbacktested approach comprised of technical analysis and indicators. From now on, where major bottoms are concerned, I'll only indicate that a likely major bottom has occurred after the two major buy signal criteria are satisfied (The 5% follow through requirement in concert with a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator for a few weeks), which would have weeded out all 6 important cycle lows (see next bullet) that occurred during the major intermediate term downcycle from being major intermediate term cycle low candidates, and there's only a 1.56% probability that was the result of pure luck (50% raised to the sixth power). Assuming that May 16, 2005 really was a major intermediate term cycle low then the two major buy signal requirements will have been effective 7 consecutive times and there's only a 0.78% chance that was the result of pure luck (50% raised to the seventh power).

• The 5% follow through major buy signal requirement (after breaking through the intermediate term downcycle trendline connecting short term cycle highs) weeds out the December 8, 2004, January 6, 2005, March 29, 2005, April 15, 2005, and the April 28 cycle lows from being a major intermediate term cycle low, but not the February 8 (HUI/XAU)/9 (NEM) 2005 cycle low. However, the NEM Lead Indicator clearly indicated (weeds out) that the February 2005 cycle low probably wasn't a major low. It appears that the 5% follow through requirement in concert with a clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator for a few weeks will work well for timing/major buy signals. Also, an Elliot Wave type A, B, C major correction pattern is likely to occur, with point C, the major cycle low, occurring relatively close to the Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, which helps.
  

• Buying and holding major intermediate term upcycles (that last about 3 to 12 months) makes a lot of sense, but not long term or very long term upcycles, because they're too flat (rising bottoms) and one loses too much during major corrections (However, with good stock selection, one can do very well with buy and hold during this gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000). This is a change from my belief that one should hold during long term upcycles. One should wait for a major intermediate term cycle buy signal before buying. So, it makes sense to be long during major intermediate term cycle buy signals and in cash and/or short during major intermediate term cycle sell signals.
  

• Cycle channels/trendlines are the most important consideration when timing any market. A very long term upcycle has been in place since late 2000 and a long term upcycle has been in place since May 10, 2004 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU (gold began a very long term upcycle in April 2001). Very long term upcycles (and downcycles) tend to last about 17.5 years on average. Gold's previous very long term downcycle lasted from 1980 until April 2001.

• As I've said before, if you find that the detailed technical work is too much to digest, the cycle channels/trendlines in the charts are by far the most important consideration, so one can still use my system even if the indicators/technical work are difficult to grasp (right now, sometimes with perseverance one might grasp it).

• I've created a Joe F. Rocks imaginary mutual fund at Marketocracy that will trade gold/silver stocks and maybe also precious metals via Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) like GLD (new gold ETF) using my "Trade the Cycles" system. The Fund Manager name should say Joe Ferrazzano not  "joefrocks." I bought "en masse" on 1-5-05 and was more than 90% invested on that date. This will be a way of establishing an independently calculated track record. I'll track it's performance weekly in these updates, but the link above updates the fund share price/NAV the day after each session I believe.  

• The Joe F. Rocks fund at Marketocracy will provide a great independently tracked way of assessing "Trade the Cycles" as well as my trading ability and you can compare me to other market timers. I think I have a great shot at being very near the top of Marketocracy's rankings in the near future, partly because of how great the gold/silver stock market is, but also because of my "Trade the Cycles" system. Given how volatile gold/silver stocks are it would be easy to have a substandard rate of return relative to HUI and the XAU if one wasn't good at timing gold/silver stocks. I'll be doing mostly intermediate term cycle trading (cycles that last about 4-6 weeks from cycle low to the next cycle low) and some short term cycle trading. Once the long term cycle high occurs probably in about 6 to 12 months I'll be 35% in cash and will find low volatility stocks to park most of the rest of the fund. I have to be at least 65% invested, which ties my hands some, but I should still do very well. Margin and short selling aren't allowed by Marketocracy because they're following typical mutual fund guidelines. I could end up running a real mutual fund for them if I rank very high.
  

Joe F. Rocks!

====================== End of Update ==============================

The following analysis/commentary didn't change from 4-25's update -

There's some debate about wether the gold stock Bull has ended and deflation will occur or if inflation will increase substantially. Take a look at commodities, housing, healthcare costs, education costs, etc. and what do you see? It's not deflation. The US Dollar (USD) is merely having a countertrend rally and gold a countertrend decline that has a ways to go. The USD is in a very long term downcycle that began in mid 2001 which is INFLATIONARY. Case closed. Basically the US has a crappy economy and high inflation a la the 1970s which is great for precious metals just as it was in the 1970s.

The post bubble economic cycle has deflationary effects (such as in the stock market and the economy) that are being fought with massive stimulus and an extremely easy monetary policy at least as far as rock bottom short term rates are concerned.

The cycle based system I use has stood a great test and the long term downcycle remains in effect despite trendline "buy signals" suggesting otherwise (if one didn't use/understand cycles). The long term upcycle trendlines for HUI and the XAU that began in October 2002 for HUI and in July 2002 for the XAU broke down in January of this year and those indices are now heading (I strongly believe, similar to what occurred after the prior two long term upcycles broke down as shown in the chart below) for their very long term upcycle/Bull Market trendlines in the next few months.  The XAU should bottom in the 70-75 area as the chart below reveals.

As one can see in the chart below from 2-6-04 the XAU's long term downcycle remained in effect two long term cycles ago in 2001 despite the long term downcycle becoming less steep as has recently occurred in this long term downcycle. In the previous long term downcycle in 2002 the downcycle's trend was very steep/parabolic and a long term cycle low occurred less than two months after the long term cycle high.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio collapsed (fell by > 6%) on both Thursday 3-25 and Friday 3-26, correctly portending strength each day because it was an unusually large rise in complacency that portends strength. However, the collapse of the XAU Put/Call Ratio to 0.58064 on 4-8 for the April expiration from levels well above 1.00 a few months ago correctly portended weakness because the gold stock market became very complacent.

I originally thought that HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) was the most important index because it isn't affected nearly as much as the XAU (Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index) is by mining firms that hedge (they've underperformed in this Bull market). Then I began to emphasize the XAU more because it had a higher correlation to reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM). About 25-30% of the XAU is determined by NEM because it's a market cap weighted index and NEM, with a market cap of nearly $20 Billion, is much larger than even the second largest firm in the XAU, Barrick (ABX), at nearly a $12 Billion market cap. Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) has a market cap below $1 Billion as of 3-19.

The problem with relying heavily on NEM and the XAU as I was doing is that a stock or a market cap weighted index with relatively few components like the XAU is much more likely than a non market cap weighted index like HUI of exhibiting anomalous/unusual behavior as NEM and the XAU have recently. Their long term downcycle trendlines were broken to the upside a few times, but a lack of sustained substantial followthrough meant those buy signals weren't confirmed.

Both NEM and the XAU's long term downcycle trendlines have become less parabolic/sharply declining in recent months with both long term and intermediate buy signals appearing to have occurred yet meaningful followthrough failed to occur and those major buy signals were NOT confirmed, which vindicated my assumption that a long term buy signal (break above the long term downcycle trendline and substantial followthrough) won't occur until after the XAU falls to it's Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline in the 70-75 area in the next few months.

NEM's anomalous/unusual behavior caused the XAU to exhibit similar behavior because of the huge influence NEM has on the market cap weighted XAU, but such behavior did NOT occur with HUI.

HUI's long term downcycle trendline has not been pushed up like the XAU and NEM's have been (see their charts below) because it's not a market cap weighted index. Hence, it's very important to watch HUI as closely as the XAU and NEM. That's a major lesson I learned.

Understanding cycles is by far the most important part of my system. The fact that the long term cycle has turned down is extremely important as is the fact that the intermediate term cycle turned down also. The long term cycle's downtrend will become more steep and the intermediate term cycle's downtrend will become more steep.

If the long term, intermediate term, and short term cycles are all heading down one should expect much less strength when the XAU Put/Call Ratio portends strength than if those cycles were all heading up. The XAU Put/Call Ratio jumped 5.44% on Friday 2-27 (1.17251 to 1.23624 for the March expiration), yet, from the intraday/very short term (hours/days) cycle low in negative territory to the short term cycle high the XAU rallied less than 1.50%. If the long term and intermediate term cycles had been heading up instead of down the XAU probably would have risen at least twice as much as it did on Friday 2-27.

One also must consider where gold stocks are in their cycles. The long term downcycle's weakness has increased significantly since beginning on 1-6-04 for the XAU and on 12-2-03 for HUI BUT it will get weaker.

The primary consideration in assessing gold stock timeliness (or any market's timeliness), even on a one session basis, is what the cycles are doing. Long term, intermediate term, and short term cycles MUST be considered and very short term (hours/days) cycles can occasionally be important. It can be difficult to differentiate between short term (days/weeks) and very short term (hours/days) cycles much of the time. You might not know until after the fact that a cycle was short term or very short term.

HUI, NEM, and the XAU as of 5-14-04

HUI, NEM, and the XAU as of 4-23-04

NEM (most important) and the XAU's Very Long Term Cycle as of 1-16-04

The date in the annotation below should be 10-10-02 (10-8-02 for NDX) not 11-10-02: