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Joe F.
Growth Stock Investor &
Market Strategist
Joe
F. Trade the Cycles Archive (see the "Trade the Cycles Blog"
for current analysis)
- A Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market
Within A Secular Bull Market - 6-4-06
- A Cyclical Bear Market Appears
To Have Begun - 5-21-06
- The Monthly Upcycle Rolled Over
Last Week - 5-7-06
- A
Multi Week Elliot Wave ABC Correction Probably Looms - 4-30-06
- The
Monthly Cycle Has Probably Turned Down - 4-23-06
- The
Monthly
Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Finally Peaked - 4-9-06
- The
Monthly
Upcycle's Wave 4 Down Is In Effect - 4-2-06
- The
Major
Upcycle's Wave 5 Is In Effect - 3-26-06
- A Major
Upcycle Wave 5 Buy Signal Occurred On 3-13-06 - 3-19-06
- The
Major Upcycle's Wave
4 May Have Bottomed - 3-12-06
- Wave
4's Wave C Short Term Downcycle Is In Effect - 3-5-06
- The Major
Upcycle's Wave 4 Is
Likely To
Bottom In Mid March - 2-26-05
- The Major
Upcycle's Elliot Wave 4 Should
Bottom In Mid March - 2-19-06
- The Major
Upcycle's Elliot Wave 3 Broke Down On Tuesday 2-7 - 2-12-06
- The Major Upcycle's Elliot Wave
4 Has
Probably Begun - 2-5-06
- S & P 500 Component (SPX)
Newmont Mining (NEM) Is Leading To The Downside - 1-29-06
- Brace Yourself For The Major
Upcycle's
Elliot Wave 4 Down! - 1-22-06
- The Major Intermediate Term
Upcycle's Elliot Wave 3 Lives - 1-15-06
- A New Indicator Reveals The Fed
Has
Been Spiking The Punch - 1-8-06
- Clear Signs Pointed To A
Strong Short Term
Upcycle - 1-1-06
- HUI, NEM, And The XAU Test
Their December
12 Cycle Highs - 12-26-05
- A Short
Term
Upcycle Within A Likely Monthly Downcycle - 12-18-05
- The
Elliot Wave 5 Short Term
Upcycle Has Peaked - 12-11-05
- Welcome To The Monthly
Upcycle's Elliot Wave 5 - 12-4-05
- The Monthly Upcycle's Elliot
Wave 3 Has Rolled Over - 11-27-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Monthly Upcycle
Elliot Wave 4 Is In Effect - 11-20-05
- HUI/XAU Monthly Upcycle Wave
3 And A Classic Breakout Occurred - 11-13-05
- A Monthly Cycle Buy Signal
Remains In Effect - 11-6-05
- A Monthly Cycle Buy Signal
Occurred On Monday 10-24 - 10-30-05
- Monthly Cycle Lows Probably
Occurred On Thursday 10-20 - 10-23-05
- The Monthly Cycle Appears To
Be Bottoming - 10-16-05
- A Monthly Downcycle Is
Probably Still In Effect - 10-9-05
- The Monthly Upcycle Has Rolled
Over
And Probably Peaked - 10-2-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Hit Monthly
Cycle Highs On September 19 - 9-25-05
- Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's
Break Out
Led To A Short Covering Stampede - 9-18-05
- HUI, NEM, And The XAU Rock
Again Last Week - 9-11-05
- HUI, NEM, And The XAU Hit
Monthly Cycle Buy Signals - 9-4-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Elliot Wave
Patterns and Gap Filling Action - 8-28-05
- The Minor Correction Has
Probably Run It's
Course - 8-21-05
- Keep A Close Eye On The Major
Upcycle Channels - 8-14-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU's Major
Breakout Led To A Short
Covering Stampede - 8-7-05
- The NEM Lead Indicator
Remained
Bullish Last Week - 7-31-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Hit Minor
Intermediate Term Cycle Lows On July 19 - 7-24-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Appear
To Be Bottoming - 7-17-05
- Gold & Silver COT Data
Sends A Clearly Bullish Message - 7-10-05
- HUI, NEM, and XAU New Monthly
Upcycles Appear To Have Begun - 7-3-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Hit
Short Term Cycle Lows Early Last Week - 6-26-05
- NEM Filled It's Big Upside Gap
To 40.25
From Late April - 6-19-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Monthly Cycle
Buy
Signals Occurred On Friday June 10 - 6-12-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Probably
Experienced Major Bottoms On May 16 - 6-5-05
- The Force Is With Us
Fellow Precious Metals Jedis! - 5-29-05
- The Long Term Cycle Lows Hold
and
Useful Elliot Wave Patterns - 5-22-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU are
Appoaching Their Bull Market Trendlines - 5-15-05
- Gold and Silver COT Data Sends
a Bullish Message - 5-8-05
- The Bull Market Channels for
HUI, NEM, and the XAU Remain Intact - 5-1-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU
Staged Impressive Rallies Early Last Week - 4-24-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Are Near
The Bottom Of Their Bull Market Channels - 4-17-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Are In
The Flat Early Part Of
Their Intermediate Term Upcycles - 4-10-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Bounce
Near
Their Long Term Upcycle Trendlines - 4-3-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Approach
Their Long Term Upcycle Trendlines - 3-27-05
- Commercial Trader Versus
Speculator Battle Royal! - 3-20-05
- The COT Data Indicates That A
Correction Looms - 3-13-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Hit
Intermediate Term Cycle Sell Signals Last Week - 3-6-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Have
Sharply Rising Channels - 2-27-05
- A Major Buying Opportunity
Should Present Itself In The Next Few Weeks - 2-20-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Staged
Impressive Rallies On High Volume Last Week After Hitting Their Bull
Market Trendlines - 2-13-05
- The US Dollar's Intermediate
Term Upcycle Is Rolling Over - 2-6-05
- The US Dollar's Intermediate
Term Upcycle Sent Gold/Silver Stocks Down Last Week - 1-30-05
- Major Buy Signals Occurred On
Friday January 21 For HUI,
NEM, and the XAU - 1-23-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Test
Their January 6 Lows - 1-16-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Take Out
Their December 8, 2004 Lows - 1-9-05
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Found
Support At Their Long Term Upcycle Trendlines on Wednesday December 29
- 1-2-05
- HUI, NEM, XAU Short Term
Cycle
Lows Appear To Be In - 12-26-04
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU Put In
A
Major Bottom On December 8, 2004 - 12-19-04
- Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Appears to Have Put In A Major
Bottom at
43 On December 8 - 12-12-04
- Uptrendlines for HUI,
NEM, XAU since late July Broke Down On December 2 - 12-5-04
- Uptrendlines for HUI,
NEM, and the XAU since late July Remained Intact Last Week -
11-28-04
- A Major Top for Gold/Silver
Stocks Appears to Have
Occurred on Wednesday
11-17 - 11-21-04
- HUI Exceeds October
8's Intermediate Term Cycle High
(at
239.90) on Friday
11-12 - 11-14-04
- HUI/NEM/XAU
Intermediate Term Cycle Buy Signals Confirmed on Friday 11-5 -
11-7-04
- Likely NEM
Intermediate Term Cycle High Occurred at 48.08 on
Wednesday
October 27 - 10-31-04
- HUI Intermediate Term
Cycle Low Occurred at 218.98 on Monday
October 18 - 10-24-04
- NEM/XAU Intermediate
Term Cycle Lows Occurred at 43.11 and
96.47 on Wednesday October 13 - 10-17-04
- HUI, NEM, XAU Long
Term Upcycle Channels Suggest Relatively
Modest Downside Risk - 10-10-04
- I Missed HUI/XAU
Intermediate Term Cycle Buy Signals that
Occurred on 9-14 (HUI) and 9-21 (XAU) - 10-3-04
- NEM Appears to Have Hit
an Intermediate Term Cycle Low at
41.35 on 9-17 and Underperformed the XAU for Eleven Consecutive Sessions
- 9-26-04
- NEM's Intermediate Term
Downcycle Rolled Over With a Vengence
on
Friday 9-17 - 9-19-04
- HUI, NEM, and XAU Short
Term Cycle Highs Probably Occurred on
Friday 9-10 - 9-12-04
- HUI, NEM, and XAU
Intermediate Term Cycle Sell Signals
Confirmed on Friday 9-3 - 9-5-04
- HUI, NEM, and XAU
Intermediate Term Cycle Highs Occurred on
August 20 at 211.21, 44.74, and 96.24 Respectively - 8-29-04
- HUI, NEM, and XAU Long
Term Cycle Lows Occurred on May 10 at
163.81, 34.70, and 76.79 Respectively - 8-22-04
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU
Rally to Their Long Term Downcycle
Trendlines and Gold Declines Modestly - 8-15-04
- Gold/Silver Stocks Hit a
Short Term Cycle High on Tuesday
August 3 and the Metals Play Catch Up - 8-8-04
- Gold/Silver Stocks
Bounce After Reaching an Extremely
Oversold Condition and Gold is Little Changed on the Week - 8-1-04
- The Long Term
Downcycle has Rolled Over and the Intermediate Term Cycle
Highs Are In - 7-25-04
- The Long Term
Downcycle Remains in Effect for HUI, NEM and the XAU, and the Reliable
Non Contrarian
Gold Commercial Traders Dramatically Increased Their Net Short Position
- 7-18-04
- Intermediate Term Cycle
Highs May Have Occurred on Friday July 9
for
HUI, NEM, and the XAU, and The Long Term
Downcycle Remains in Effect - 7-11-04
- The Intermediate Term
Cycle Buy Signals that Occurred on 6-24 for HUI, NEM and the XAU have
failed, and the Long Term Downcycle has Rolled Over, Becoming More
Parabolic/Sharply Declining - 7-3-04
- Risky Intermediate Term
Cycle Buy Signals Occurred on Thursday June
24 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, But The Long Term
Downcycle Remains in Effect - 6-27-04
- The Long Term
Downcycle and the Intermediate Term Downcycle Remain in Effect, but
Gold Stocks Could (but probably won't) Surprise to the Upside Near Term
- 6-20-04
- Long Term Cycle Lows
for HUI, NEM, and the
XAU are Likely in the Next Few Weeks - 6-13-04
- Intermediate Term Cycle
Highs Occurred on Thursday May 27 and a
Dramatic Decline to Long Term Cycle Lows for HUI, NEM, and the
XAU is Likely in the Next Few
Weeks - 6-6-04
- Intermediate Term Cycle
Highs Probably Occurred on Thursday May 27 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU,
so the Correction Should Reassert Itself This Week - 5-30-04
- Intermediate Term Cycle
Lows Occurred on May 10 But Don't Get Excited - 5-23-04
- Last Week went Much as
Expected for Gold Stocks - 5-16-04
- While NEM, HUI, and the
XAU are within Striking Distance of their Bull Market/Very Long Term
Upcycle Trendlines, the Downside Risk Remains Substantial - 5-9-04
- Concerning Monday 5-3
Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Short Term,
Intermediate Term, as well as Long Term Cycles are Heading Down which
Portends Weakness in Precious Metals Stocks - 5-2-04
- HUI, the XAU, and NEM's
Intermediate Term Downcycle Trendlines are about to Intersect
the Bottom of Their Long Term Downcycle Channels which Strongly
Suggests
that an Intermediate Term Cycle Low is Likely Early This Week -
4-25-04
- One Can't Rule Out the
Possibility that a Gold Stock Intermediate
Term Cycle Low Occurred on Wednesday - 4-18-04
- Gold Stocks were Weak
as Expected Last Week - 4-11-04
- Gold Stocks Surprised to
the Upside Again last Week But HUI
Remains in an Intermediate Term (modestly downtrending channel
since it's 2-18 intermediate term cycle high at 242.20) and
Long Term Downcycle and the XAU Remains in a Long Term Downcycle -
4-4-04
- HUI and the XAU Remain
in Intermediate Term and Long Term Downcycles - 3-28-04
- HUI, NEM, and the XAU
All Remain in Intermediate Term as well as Long Term Downcycles -
3-21-04
- Gold Stocks
should really Dive this Week and an Intermediate Term Cycle Low is
Likely at Some Point this Week or Next - 3-14-04
- Gold Stocks Surprised to
the Upside Last Week with Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Rallying Nearly
to it's Intermediate Term Cycle Downtrend Line - 3-7-04
- Confirmation of the NDX
Long Term Cycle High at 1559.47 on 1-20-04 Occurred when the Straight
Long Term Cycle Trendline Broke Down which Confirmed the Parabolic
Trendline Sell Signal - 2-29-04
- What Happened early
Last Week was that NEM, HUI and the XAU all
put Additional Points on the Flat/Roundish Topping Area of Their
Intermediate Term Cycle Parabolic Trendlines - 2-22-04
- HUI, NEM, the XAU, as
well as NDX Flashed an Intermediate Term Cycle Sell Signal on 2-13-04
and SPX Flashed an Intermediate Term Cycle Sell Signal on 2-12-04 -
2-16-04
- An
NDX Intermediate Term
(months) Cycle Low
appeared to have Occurred on 1-29-04 at 1474.13 but that Cycle Broke
Down on 2-4-04 - 2-8-04
- Intermediate Term
(months) Cycle Buy Signals Occurred on
Friday January 30 for NDX, SPX, HUI and the XAU - 2-1-04
- An
NDX
(NASDAQ 100) Intermediate Term
(months) Cycle High Occurred on 1-20-04 and an Intermediate Term Sell
Signal Occurred on 1-21-04 - 1-25-04
- The Long Term Cycle
(1-3 years) Channels/Rising Troughs Trendlines for HUI/XAU
(HUI = AMEX Gold Bugs Index and the XAU = Philadelphia
Gold/Silver Index) Broke Down on Thursday January 15 for HUI
and on Wednesday January 14
for the XAU, which was a Long Term Cycle Sell Signal - 1-18-04
- NDX Appears to have
Entered the Final Blowoff Phase
of the Short Cyclical Bull Market that began with the Long Term Cycle
Low on October 10, 2002 - 1-11-04
- A Clear Intermediate
Term Buy Signal for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
Occurred on 12-29 - 1-4-04
- The XAU's Short Term
Cycle Low on 12-23 at 101.49 was
just a Hair Above the 12-11 Intermediate Term Cycle Low at 101.45 which
was a Real Scare - 12-28-03
- The Intermediate Term
Channels/Declining Peaks Trendlines for HUI/XAU
(HUI = AMEX Gold Bugs Index and the XAU = Philadelphia
Gold/Silver Index) were Broken to the Upside on Friday December 12
which was an Intermediate Term Buy Signal - 12-14-03
- The Parabolic Shaped
Intermediate Term Uptrends of HUI,
the XAU,
and NEM have all Broken Down and Flashed an Intermediate Term Sell
Signal on December 3 - 12-7-03
- The Theory is that
when the XAU Put/Call
Ratio (for
the nearest
expiration)
Appears to Fail it Tells You Something that's Extremely Important -
11-30-03
- An Intermediate Term
(months) Cycle High
for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) occurred at 1453.46 on 11-7 and a Clear
Intermediate Term Sell Signal occurred on 11-18 - 11-23-03
- The NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely
on Monday - 11-16
- The Intermediate Term
Channels/Declining Peaks Trendlines for HUI/XAU
were Broken to the Upside on Friday November 7 which is an Intermediate
Term Buy Signal - 11-9-03
- It Appears October 15
is an Intermediate Term Cycle High for
NDX since it occurred at a Higher Level (1439.97) than
the October 30 (Likely) Short Term Cycle High - 11-02-03
- The Key Thing on
Monday is to Watch Newmont Mining (NEM) and the
XAU's Narrow Sharply Uptrending Channels - 10-26-03
- The Intermediate Term
Channels/Declining Peaks Trendlines for HUI/XAU were Broken to the Upside on
Thursday October 16 which is an Intermediate Term Buy Signal -
10-19-03
- The NASDAQ Appears to be Near
(a few weeks) an Important Top - 10-12-03
- On Friday 10-3 HUI/XAU got Hammered BUT an
Intermediate Term Cycle Low appears Likely on Monday 10-6 or Tuesday
10-7 - 10-5-03
- Intermediate Term Sell
Signals occurred for NDX
(NASDAQ 100), QQQ
(NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock), and SPX (S & P 500) on Monday
September 22 when their Rising Troughs Trendlines Broke Down
- 9-28-03
- Very
Short Term Cycle Highs occurred early on Friday 9-12 at 95.06 for the
XAU and 205.69 for HUI which were Lower than the Previous Very Short Term Cycle Highs on
Tuesday 9-9 at 96.46 for the XAU and 206.76 for HUI, Suggesting that
those Highs on Tuesday September 9 are the Intermediate
Term Cycle Highs - 9-14-03
- The NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely
on Monday - 9-7-03
- Gold Broke Out of it's
Triangle Pattern Last Week - 8-31-03
- QQQ broke above it's
Very Short Term Trendline of Declining Peaks on Tuesday
which is a Trendline Buy Signal - 8-26-03
- HUI hit
a Trendline Buy Signal (broke above the very short term declining peaks
trendline) on Monday August 25 and Experienced
a Very Short Term Cycle Low at 178.55 - 8-25-03
- NDX
(NASDAQ 100) broke above it's Declining Peaks Trendline (in place since
July 14's intermediate term cycle high of 1316.42) on Tuesday which
appears to be, as Surprising as it Seems, an Intermediate Term Buy
Signal - 8-20-03
- HUI
and the XAU
hit Trendline Buy Signals (They broke above Their Very Short Term
Declining Peaks Trendlines) on Tuesday August 19 - 8-19-03
- NDX
and QQQ Broke Well Above
Their Short Term Uptrending Channels on Monday Which Indicates that
Short Term Cycle Highs May Have Occurred - 8-18-03
- It's Possible that
Short Term Cycle Highs occurred on Thursday August 14 for HUI near 184
and for the XAU near 89 - 8-17-03
- The XAU
Put/Call Ratio for the September 19 Expiration at an Extremely High
Level of 1.447 (calculated mid session on Tuesday) is Sending a Very
Bullish Message for Gold Stocks - 8-12-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Timely
on Tuesday - 8-11-03
- NDX
and QQQ
are Trading in Very Short Term Uptrending Channels that Began
on Friday August 8 when the Trendline of Declining Peaks was Broken
which is a Trendline Buy Signal - 8-10-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Timely
on Thursday - 8-6-03
- A Very Weak Open
Followed by Strength is a Likely Scenario for Wednesday - 8-5-03
- The Short Term
Uptrending Channels for NDX/QQQ/OEX since July 21 Broke Down on Monday
August 4 which is a Trendline Sell Signal - 8-4-03
- The
Very High Volatility of the Gold and Especially the Silver Stocks Last
Week Typically Portends Strength just
as a Spike in Implied Volatility Would - 8-3-03
- NDX, QQQ,
and OEX are in Short Term Uptrending Channels that Began in Mid July
- 7-31-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Timely on Thursday - 7-30-03
- HUI and the XAU hit Trendline Sell Signals
on Monday - 7-29-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Untimely on Tuesday - 7-28-03
- The XAU Put/Call
Ratio's Rise to 0.856 on Friday Portends Continued Strength on Monday
- 7-27-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Untimely on Friday - 7-24-03
- The Intermediate Term
Parabolic Downtrending Line of Declining Peaks in Place for Both HUI/XAU since June 19's Intermediate
Term Cycle High was Broken to the Upside Dramatically on Wednesday July
23 (HUI rose 6.45% and the XAU rose 5.35%) which is an Intermediate
Term Buy Signal - 7-23-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Untimely on Wednesday - 7-22-03
- The NASDAQ is Deemed
Timely on Tuesday - 7-21-03
- HUI/XAU
Experienced Very Short Term Channel/Trendline Buy Signals on Thursday
July
17 - 7-17-03
- NDX's
(NASDAQ 100) Uptrending Channel In Place since the Beginning of July
Broke
Down on Wednesday - 7-16-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Wednesday - 7-15-03
- NASDAQ
100 (NDX)/S & P 100 (OEX) Short Term Cycles made New Highs on
Monday
which indicates that the Intermediate Term Uptrends are Still In Place
because they Exceeded the June Highs - 7-14-03
- Silver
Appears to have Experienced an Intermediate Term Cycle High at the Top
of it's Triangle Last Week - 7-13-03
- Value
Stocks/OEX Appear to have Experienced an Intermediate Term Cycle High
in
Mid/Late June which means it's likely that Wednesday July 9's NDX
(NASDAQ
100) Short Term Cycle High at 1307.03 Will End Up Being the
Intermediate
Term Cycle High for NDX/Growth Stocks - 7-10-03
- Value
Stocks (OEX is mostly value) may have Experienced an Intermediate Term
Cycle High in mid/late June at about the Same Time that Gold Stocks Did
- 7-9-03
- The
Intermediate
Term Cycle High Appears to be in for Both HUI/XAU - 7-8-03
- The
"Likely"
NDX (NASDAQ 100) Intermediate Term Cycle High of 1265.69 on June 6 was
Taken Out on Monday July 7 with a New High for this Intermediate Term
Cycle
of 1282.31 - 7-7-03
- The
CBOE
Put/Call Ratio (at an extremely high level (at or above 1.05) of 1.08
at
Thursday's close) and the NASDAQ TRIN (closed at a bearish level of
1.32
(much more activity in declining issues) on Thursday) Indicate that
Early
Weakness is Likely - 7-6-03
- NDX
(NASDAQ
100) is at the Top of it's Downtrending Channel going back to Early
June
with the First Channel High at the Likely Intermediate Term Cycle High
of 1265.69 on June 6 - 7-2-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday - 7-1-03
- Both
HUI/XAU Followed Through Significantly on their Trendline Buy Signals
on
Monday which Confirms the Buy Signal - 6-30-03
- On
Friday
both HUI/XAU broke through their Short Term Downtrend Lines (the Top
Line
of their Short Term Downtrending Channels) which is a Short Term Buy
Signal
- 6-29-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday - 6-26-03
- The
Fed
cut by 25 Basis Points keeping a Weak Economy Bias (easing bias) which
is Bullish for Gold/Gold Stocks/Euro FX and Bearish for the Major
Averages/US
Dollar - 6-25-03
- Wether
the Fed cuts by 25 or 50 Basis Points on Wednesday the US Dollar will
probably
begin a Sustained Decline at about the Time the Rate Decision is
Announced
- 6-24-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday because the Very Sharp Rise in
Complacency
that occurred for the NASDAQ 100 and the Unusual Rise in Fear that
occurred
for the S & P 100/Value Stocks will probably Result in Weakness
- 6-23-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Thursday - 6-18-03
- Long
Awaited Major Breakouts occurred for HUI/XAU - 6-17-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Tuesday - 6-16-03
- The
CBOE
Put/Call Ratio at a Moderate Level (at or above 0.50 but below 0.75) of
0.73 at Friday's close Suggests there will be Strength Early on Monday
- 6-15-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely Again on Friday - 6-12-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Thursday - 6-11-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Collapsed on Tuesday - 6-10-03
- The
Market
Appears to have Experienced an Intermediate Term Cycle High on Friday
June
6 (NDX (NASDAQ 100) 1265.69) and a Short Term as well as an
Intermediate
Term Sell Signal Occurred on Monday - 6-9-03
- The
Market
may have Experienced an Intermediate Term Cycle High on Friday June 6
(NDX
(NASDAQ 100) 1265.69) - 6-8-03
- Intermediate
Term Cycle High Timing can probably be Finetuned (after seeing an
unusual
rise in fear) by Waiting for Dramatic Deterioration in the Market's
Health
- 6-5-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Thursday - 6-4-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Tuesday - 6-3-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Grew Dramatically on Monday - 6-2-03
- It's
Time
to Label the Market Now for What it is, a Bear Market Bubble -
6-1-03
for Friday 5-30's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday because a Sharply Rising Wall of Worry
(VIX,
VXN, QQV) in Recent Sessions may indicate the Intermediate Term Cycle
will
soon Head Down - 5-29-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Grew Substantially on Wednesday - 5-28-03
- The
NASDAQ
100 (NDX) took out the May 13 High of 1165.53 (which appeared to be the
Intermediate Term Cycle High) with a New High for this Cycle (that
began
on March 13) of 1174.16 - 5-27-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday - 5-26-03 for Friday 5-23's session
- The
CBOE
Put/Call Ratio at a Very High Level (above 1.05) of 1.16 at Thursday's
Close Suggests there will be Potentially Severe Weakness Early on Friday
- 5-22-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Wednesday - 5-21-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Wednesday - 5-20-03
- An
Intermediate
Term as well as a Short Term Technical Sell Signal for the Major
Averages
occurred on Monday - 5-19-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Monday - 5-18-03 for Friday 5-16's session
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Thursday - 5-15-03
- An
Intermediate
Term Cycle High for NDX (NASDAQ 100) may have Occurred on Tuesday at
1165.53
- 5-14-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely on Wednesday because the Modest Rise in Fear that
Occurred
for the NASDAQ 100 and the Sharp Rise in Fear for the S & P
100/Value
Stocks will Probably Result in Strength - 5-13-03
- The
Unusually
Large Rise in NASDAQ Fear Probably Indicates that an Intermediate Term
Cycle High is Imminent - 5-12-03
- Substantial
Money Flowed Out of the NASDAQ on Friday with 3826 Downtick Block
Trades
(10,000+ shares) versus only 3334 Uptick Block Trades - 5-11-03 for
Friday 5-9's session
- Thursday's
Technical Sell Signal is probably an Intermediate Term Sell Signal for
the Major Averages - 5-8-03
- An
Intermediate
Term Cycle High for the Major Averages may have Occurred on Tuesday
- 5-07-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday due to Cisco Systems (CSCO) Seeing no
Sign
of Recovery and the Fed Changing Their Bias to Conditions Favoring
Economic
Weakness which will Probably Result in Weakness - 5-6-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday - 5-5-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Friday - 5-4-03 for Friday 5-2's
session
- The
CBOE
Put/Call Ratio at an Elevated Level (at or above 0.75 but below 0.90)
of
0.85 at Thursday's Close Suggests there will be Weakness Early on Friday
- 5-1-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Wednesday - 4-30-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday due to the Dramatic Collapse of the
Wall
of Worry (VIX, VXN, and QQV) in Recent Weeks - 4-29-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday due to the Significant Rise in
Complacency
for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and OEX (S & P 100) which will Probably Result
in Weakness - 4-28-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Friday - 4-27-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday because the Significant Rise in
Complacency
for QQQ and the S & P 100/Value Stocks Suggests there will be
Weakness
- 4-24-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk on Thursday - 4-23-03
- QQQ
is
Near the Top of it's Uptrending Channel on Tuesday which Suggests
Limited
Upside and Potentially Substantial Downside on Wednesday - 4-22-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday due to the Significant Rise in
Complacency
that Occurred for NDX and the S & P 100/Value Stocks on Monday
- 4-21-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Thursday - 4-20-03 for Thursday 4-17's session
- Strength
Early followed by Weakness is a Likely Scenario on Thursday -
4-16-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday after a likely Early "Pop" resulting
from
After Hour Strength on Tuesday - 4-15-03
- QQQ
hit
a Technical Sell Signal (RSI, stochastics flashed sell) on Monday 3-24
and is Near the Top of it's Recent Downtrending Price Channel -
4-14-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Monday Due to Friday's Sharp Rise in Complacency
- 4-13-03 for Friday 4-11's session
- QQQ
is
Near the Top of it's Recent Downtrending Price Channel which Suggests
Limited
Upside and Potentially Substantial Downside on Friday - 4-10-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk on Thursday - 4-9-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Tuesday which Portends Weakness on Wednesday -
4-8-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday - 4-7-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Grew on Friday - 4-6-03 for Friday 4-4's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday due to the Major Rise in Complacency
Recently
- 4-3-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Thursday due to the Major Rise in Complacency
Recently
which will probably Result in Weakness - 4-2-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Tuesday - 4-1-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk (intermediate term cycle is heading
down) on Tuesday - 3-31-03
- A
Gold
Stock Intermediate Term Buy Signal Appears to have Occurred on Friday
- 3-30-03 for Friday 3-28's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday - 3-27-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Wednesday - 3-26-03
- The
S
& P 100 is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday - 3-25-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Didn't Hold Up Well on Monday - 3-24-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Collapsed on Friday - 3-23-03 for Friday 3-21's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday because the Sharp Rise in Complacency that
Occurred for QQQ and VIX will probably Result in Weakness - 3-20-03
- Early
Modest Strength followed by Weakness is a Likely Scenario on Thursday
- 3-19-03
- Early
Strength followed by Weakness is a Likely Scenario on Wednesday -
3-18-03
- Basically
All of Monday's Rally Occurred Within Less Than the First Two Hours of
Trading - 3-17-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk on Monday - 3-16-03 for Friday
3-14's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday Due to the Rise in Complacency Experienced
by QQQ and NDX - 3-13-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Revealed that Fear Crept in on Wednesday - 3-12-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Modestly Untimely on Wednesday due to QQQ and OEX's Rise in
Complacency
and the Fact that QQQ is near the Bottom of it's Downtrending Price
Channel
which should Limit the Downside - 3-11-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely With Downside Risk on Tuesday due to OEX and QQQ's
Very
Sharp Rise in Fear - 3-10-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Monday due to QQQ and OEX's Significant Rise in
Complacency
- 3-9-03 for Friday 3-7's session
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Grew Substantially on Thursday - 3-6-03
- Modest
Strength Early On Followed by Potentially Substantial Weakness is a
Likely
Scenario on Thursday - 3-5-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Tuesday - 3-4-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Tuesday because of NDX's and the S & P 100's
Significant Rise in Complacency - 3-3-03
- Weakness
after likely Early Strength is a Likely Scenario on Monday - 3-2-03
for Friday 2-28's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Friday because the NASDAQ's Rise in Fear was
Modest
and the S & P 100's Rise in Complacency was Substantial, thus,
Weakness
will Probably Occur on Friday - 2-27-03
- A
NASDAQ
Technical Breakdown (RSI) Occurred on Monday 2-24 that was Confirmed by
Wednesday 2-26's Sharp Decline and Stochastics Breakdown - 2-26-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Wednesday - 2-25-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk on Tuesday due to the Significant
Rise
in Fear that occurred for QQQ and the Very Sharp Rise in Fear for the S
& P 100 - 2-24-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Collapsed on Friday - 2-23-03 for Friday 2-21's session
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk on Friday - 2-20-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN and QQV) Shrank on Wednesday - 2-19-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Timely with Downside Risk (downside risk because the
intermediate
term cycle peaked on December 2) on Wednesday - 2-18-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Shrank on Friday - 2-16-03 for Friday 2-14's session
- The
NASDAQWall
of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility
Index))
Rose Dramatically on Thursday - 2-13-03
- Early
Weakness followed by Strength is a Likely Scenario on Thursday with
Downside
Risk following any Rallies - 2-12-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday Due to a Significant Rise in Complacency
- 2-11-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Monday - 2-10-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Revealed that Complacency Crept In on Friday - 2-9-03 for
Friday
2-7's session
- The
NASDAQ
Composite (COMPX) opened Modestly Lower at 1298.70 on Thursday and
Basically
Trended Sideways with Modest Volatility Throughout the Session -
2-6-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Wednesday - 2-5-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Untimely on Wednesday due to Cisco's Cautious Guidance with
Probable
Strength after likely Early Weakness - 2-4-04
- Once
the
ISM Manufacturing Report News was Factored In COMPX/NDX Behaved as
Expected,
Working Lower by Session's End - 2-3-03
- The
NASDAQ
is Deemed Modestly Untimely on Monday - 2-2-03 for Friday 1-31's
session
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) revealed a Sharp Rise in Fear on Thursday - 1-30-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Revealed a Very Sharp Rise in Complacency on Wednesday -
1-29-03
- QQQ
is
Closer to the Top of it's Downtrending Price Channel than the Bottom
which
implies Downside Action or Limited Upside on Wednesday - 1-28-03
- It
isn't
only about Timing Rallies but about keeping the Degree of Risk in Mind
which is now Far too High to Consider being Long - 1-27-03
- Normally,
the Significant Rise in NASDAQ Fear on Friday combined with a Major
Rise
in Fear for the S & P 100 (OEX) on Friday (VIX (OEX Volatility
Index)
rose dramatically (+4.80 (+15.50%) to 35.77)) would Portend Strength in
the Major Averages on Monday - 1-26-03 for Friday 1-24's session.
- The
NASDAQ
Composite (COMPX) opened Sharply Higher at 1377.50 on Thursday which
Largely
Represented the Gains seen Afterhours on Wednesday - 1-23-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Wednesday - 1-22-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Rose on Tuesday - 1-21-03
- Surprisingly,
the NASDAQ Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV
(QQQ
Volatility Index)) Collapsed on Friday Despite a Steep Decline -
1-19-03 for Friday 1-17's session.
- After
a brief "Pop" during the First Half Hour the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX),
Thanks to Intel's Lowered 2003 Capital Expenditures Guidance on Tuesday
as well as other Disappointing Earnings Reports/Guidance, Trended Lower
most of the Remainder of the Session to Close at 1423.75, -15.05
(-1.05%)-
1-16-03
- Intel's
Lower 2003 Capital Expenditures Guidance and a possible Technical Sell
Signal on Wednesday (QQQ RSI trending sharply lower) is likely to
Result
in Continued Weakness on Thursday - 1-15-03
- The
Current
Rally in the Major Averages is probably About to End due to Sell on the
News Profit Taking as a Result of Weak Forward Guidance by "Gorillas"
like
Intel which will Affect many Other Firms and Reflects the Sluggish
Economic
Environment - 1-14-03
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) was a Mixed Picture on Monday with VXN revealing that a
Significant
Rise in Complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) but QQV revealed that
a very Sharp Rise in Fear occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock)
which Portends Weakness on Tuesday because much of the Rise in QQV was
probably a Natural Rebound after a Collapse in Recent Sessions -
1-13-03
- VXN
(41.29
low on Friday) and QQV (34.84 low on Friday) fell to New Lows for this
Intermediate Term Cycle (that began on 10-10 when VIX rose above the
extreme
level of 50 to 50.48) which is an Extreme of Complacency -
1-12-03
for Friday 1-10's session
- The
NASDAQ
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) didn't Hold Up Well on Thursday with VXN Revealing that a
Modest
Rise in Complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV Revealed that
a very Sharp Rise in Complacency occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking
Stock) which Portends Weakness on Friday - 1-09-03
- The
NASDAQ
Composite (COMPX) Opened Significantly Lower on Wednesday at 1423.29
and,
Thanks to Earnings Warnings/Weak Forecasts from Gateway (GTW) and Intel
(INTC), COMPX Trended Lower Most of the Session to Close at 1401.07,
-30.50
(-2.13%) - 1-08-03
- There
was a Very Sharp Rise in Complacency Intraday (VXN and QQV collapsed
after
a sharp early rise) which Portends NASDAQ Weakness on Wednesday-
1-7-03
- The
Fact
that the Wall of Worry (VIX, VXN, QQV) hasn't Held Up Well Recently and
is Near the Low End of it's Range for this Cycle Suggests that the
Upside
in the Major Averages Near Term will be Limited and there will be
Likely
Substantial Downside - 1-6-03
- The
Wall
of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility
Index))
didn't hold up well on Friday with VXN revealing that a Sharp Rise in
Complacency
occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV revealed that a Sharp Rise in
Complacency
occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock) which Portends NASDAQ
Weakness
on Monday - 1-5-03
for Friday 1-3's session
- 10-20-02
For Friday 10-18's session.
- 10-21-02
- 10-22-02
- 10-23-02
- 10-24-02
- 10-27-02
For Friday 10-25's session
- 10-28-02
- 10-29-02
- 10-30-02
- Substantial
Fear Crept into the NASDAQ on Thursday Which is a Positive that
Portends
Strength on Friday - 10-31-02.
- A
Major
Rise in Complacency Occurred During Friday's Session Which is a Major
Negative
That Portends Weakness on Monday - 11-3-02 for Friday 11-1's session
- The
CBOE Put/Call Ratio Closed at a Moderate Level of 0.67 on Monday Which
Points to Strength in the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) Early on Tuesday
Because
It's a Reliable Non Contrarian Indicator of the Next Session's Early
Action -11-4-02
- Both
VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index) Rose
Sharply
Despite Gains in NDX (NASDAQ 100)/QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock) Which
is a Sharp Rise in Fear That Portends NASDAQ Strength on Wednesday
- 11-05-02
- The
Jump in Fear at Mid Session and the Market's Realization That the 50
Basis
Point Rate Cut was the Right Decision for the Economy Helped Sharply
Rally
the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) to a close at 1418.99 (+17.82 (+1.27%))
- 11-06-02
- The
Stochastics for QQQ Have Been Trending Lower Recently Even as it
Rallied
Sharply, Which was Yet Another Major Red Flag - 11-07-02
- Both
VXN (-3.51%) and QQV (-2.79%) Fell Sharply Despite Sharp Declines in
NDX
(NASDAQ 100, -1.69%) and QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, -1.84%) Which
Portends Further Weakness on Monday - 11-10-02 for Friday 11-8's
session
- Both
VXN (+7.11%) and QQV (+8.51%) Rose Very Sharply on Monday but Most of
the
Rise Occurred Early in the Session Which Indicates That a Significant
Degree
of Complacency Crept into the NASDAQ During the Session Which Portends
Continued Weakness Early on Tuesday - 11-11-02
- Fear
Rose Sharply at Session's End as the NASDAQ Sold Off Which Portends
Strength
Early on Wednesday - 11-12-02
- QQV
Fell Significantly More in Percentage Terms Than QQQ Rose Which
Portends
Weakness in QQQ on Thursday - 11-13-02
- VIX
Fell by 10.14% on Thursday Which is a Major Rise in Complacency that
Portends
Potentially Severe Weakness in the Major Averages in the Short Term
since
Growth and Value Trend in Tandem at this Stage of the Cycle -
11-14-02
- VXN
(NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index, -5.19%) and QQV (QQQ Volatility Index,
-8.25%)
Fell Very Sharply Despite Relatively Modest Gains in NDX (NASDAQ 100,
+0.33%)
and QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, +1.30%) Which Reveals that a Very
Sharp
Rise in Complacency Occurred on Friday Which Portends Potentially
Severe
Weakness on Monday - 11-17-02 for Friday 11-15's session
- VXN
(NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index, -1.59 (-3.20%) to 48.09) Revealed a Very
Sharp Rise in Complacency Again on Monday by Falling Sharply Despite a
Sharp Drop in NDX (NASDAQ 100, -1.52%) Which Portends Further Weakness
on Tuesday - 11-18-02
- VXN
(NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index, -2.57 (-5.34%) to 45.52) Revealed a Very
Sharp Rise in Complacency Again on Tuesday by Falling Very Sharply
Despite
a Sharp Drop in NDX (NASDAQ 100, -1.84%) Which Portends Continued
Weakness
on Wednesday - 11-19-02
- A
Major
Negative is the Fact that QQV (QQQ Volatility Index, -2.78 (-6.86%) to
37.76) Fell Very Sharply Versus QQQ's Very Sharp but Considerably More
Modest Percentage Gain (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, +4.13%) Which is a
Sharp
Rise in Complacency on Wednesday That Portends Weakness on Thursday
- 11-20-02
- How
do Growth Stocks, which Rely on Strong Economic Growth, Enter a Bull
Market
with Net Selling of NASDAQ Stocks in Recent Months and an Economy so
Weak
the Fed Just had to Cut 50 Basis Points Even Though 25 Was Expected?
- 11-21-02
- VXN
(NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index, +1.79 (+4.00%) to 46.49) Rose very
Sharply
versus a very Modest Decline in NDX (NASDAQ 100, -2.13 (-0.19%) to
1116.01),
so a very Sharp Rise in Fear Occurred again on Friday Which Portends
Further
Strength - 11-24-02 for Friday 11-22's session
- There
was Respectable Follow Through on Thursday's Breakout again as expected
on Monday for the Major NASDAQ Averages with the NASDAQ Composite
(COMPX)
closing up 13.22 (+0.90%) to 1481.96 - 11-25-02
- NDX
(NASDAQ 100) Dropped like a Rock on Tuesday closing much closer (at
1087.49)
to the Session Low of 1083.86 than the High of 1119.71 which is a
Negative
- 11-26-02
- A
Major
Rise in Fear occurred for Value Stocks on Wednesday with VIX (OEX (S
&
P 100) Volatility Index) rising very Sharply (+2.10 (+7.31%) to 30.84)
Despite a Sharp Rise in OEX (S & P 100, +13.28 (+2.84%) to 480.36),
which is a Major Sentiment Reversal for Value Stocks -
11-27-02
- The
Major Rise in Fear that Began the Week Before Last Continued on Friday
with VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index, +2.06 (+4.34%) to 49.48) and QQV
(QQQ Volatility Index, +1.51 (+3.68%) to 42.58) Rising Much More in
Percentage
Terms than NDX (NASDAQ 100, -9.57 (-0.85%) to 1116.10) and QQQ (NASDAQ
100 Tracking Stock, -0.19 (-0.68%) to 27.72) Fell -
12-01-02
for Friday 11-29's session
- The
November ISM Index National Manufacturing Report came in Weaker than
Expected
at 49.2, Revealing Economic Contraction (below 50), and all the Major
Averages
Dramatically Reversed Course along with the Bulls' Hopes for a Big Day
and Breakouts above 200 day moving averages Holding for both COMPX and
NDX - 12-02-02
- A
Modest
Degree of Fear Crept into the NASDAQ on Tuesday Which Suggests that
Follow
Through to the Downside is Likely on Wednesday - 12-03-02
- A
Sharp
Drop in QQV at Session's End Plus the Fact that the RSI (Relative
Strength
Index) and the Stochastics for QQQ were on an Intraday Sell Signal at
Session's
End on Wednesday Suggests that Early Weakness is likely on Thursday and
another Down Session or at Best a Modest Gain is Probably in the Cards
- 12-04-02
- The
Fact that Complacency crept into the NASDAQ on Thursday despite a Third
Consecutive Weak Session Indicates Continued Weakness is Likely on
Friday-
12-05-02
- If
You
look at QQQ's Sharp Downtrending Price Channel QQQ is much closer to
the
Top of the Channel than the Bottom which suggests Limited Upside and
Potentially
Substantial Downside Near Term - 12-08-02 for Friday 12-6's session
- The
CBOE Put/Call Ratio at a Moderate Level of 0.72 Suggests there will be
Strength fairly early on Tuesday as does the Extremely Oversold
Condition
of the NASDAQ at Session's End on Monday (NASDAQ TRIN closed at an
extremely
oversold level of 4.93 (indicating overwhelmingly more activity in
declining
issues)) - 12-09-02
- If
One looks at QQQ's sharp Downtrending Price Channel QQQ rallied up to
the
middle of the Channel on Tuesday, which, Considering the very sharp
rise
in Complacency Recently, Suggests Limited Upside and Potentially
Substantial
Downside on Wednesday - 12-10-02
- A
Sharp
Rise in Complacency occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock, +0.12
(+0.47%) to 25.72) since QQQ rose much less in Percentage Terms than
QQV
(QQQ Volatility Index, -1.20 (-2.69%) to 43.43) fell which Portends
Weakness
in QQQ on Thursday - 12-11-02
- Breaking
above the very important $330 Long Term Resistance Level (at $331.10)
has
Major Significance for Gold and confirms a likely Long Term Bull Market
- 12-12-02
- If
One
looks at QQQ's Sharp Downtrending Price Channel, QQQ fell to the Middle
of the Channel on Friday, which, considering the Major Rise in
Complacency
recently, suggests Limited Upside and Potentially Substantial Downside
on Monday - 12-15-02 for Friday 12-13's session
- The
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) Held Up Well as the Major NASDAQ Averages Rallied at Session's
End which, in Concert with a Bullish Level of the NASDAQ TRIN Which
Closed
at 0.56 (indicating much more activity in rising issues), Suggests
Follow
Through to the Upside is Likely Early on Tuesday - 12-16-02
- VXN
(NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) Fell -1.70 (-3.41%) to 48.14 While NDX
(NASDAQ
100) Fell -2.42 (-0.23%) to 1040.02 Which Reveals that a Very Sharp
Rise
in Complacency Occurred for NDX Because VXN fell Very Sharply in
Percentage
Terms despite NDX falling Which Portends Weakness in NDX on Wednesday
- 12-17-02
- A
Very
Oversold Level of the NASDAQ TRIN Which Closed at 2.58 (indicating much
more activity in declining issues), Suggests Modest Strength is Likely
on Thursday after Likely Early Weakness - 12-18-02
- The
Wall of Worry was a Mixed Picture on Thursday with VXN revealing that a
Significant Rise in Complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) but QQV
revealed
that a Sharp Rise in Fear occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock)
after a Very Sharp Rise in Complacency occurred on Wednesday -
12-19-02
- The
Wall of Worry (VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index) and QQV (QQQ
Volatility
Index)) didn't Hold Up Well on Friday with VXN Revealing that a
Significant
Rise in Complacency occurred for NDX (NASDAQ 100) and QQV Revealed that
a Very Sharp Rise in Complacency occurred for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Tracking
Stock) which Portends NASDAQ Weakness on Monday - 12-22-02 for
Friday
12-20's session
To keep apprised of updates to Joe F. Rocks! the Mind-it
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Alternatively or in addition to Mind-it,
why
not make Joe F. Rocks! your start page. In Internet Explorer
under
"Tools" select "Internet Options" then select "General" where you can
set
your start page to http://www.joefrocks.com/ .
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